[January 22, 2022] Indiana State (8-9) vs Valparaiso (9-10)

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I don't want our guys giving up. Keep fighting and I think we will win a few. Even with all the adversity we've somehow been in EVERY conference game and had opportunity to win at the end. Maybe?? by Arch Madness we can have a healthy bunch and make a run in the tournament. We have shown "flashes" of potential just not consistent enough in MVC play to produce wins.
 

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This game changed at the start of second half when Hobbs had chance to increase the lead to 8, but missed all 3 free throws. Valpo then went on run. Heckuva an effort to tie it up. Gotta close out games.
 
This game changed at the start of second half when Hobbs had chance to increase the lead to 8, but missed all 3 free throws. Valpo then went on run. Heckuva an effort to tie it up. Gotta close out games.
Hobbs is typically a good shooter too. I was shocked he missed all three free throws. Very unfortunate and those three points could have won the game for us as it was.
 
I expect 2-3 roster spots to open up at years end when the 2-3 cats who never see the floor (unless we're blowing someone out or are severely understaffed due to COVID), bail and enter the transfer portal. Against a much larger Valpo lineup and with 2 dudes fouled out, Hittle and Tucker don't even get a whiff of the floor (unless there was some other reason neither played). No reason for those guys to stick around....them never getting any PT so they leave might be by design.
 

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what are the factors that contrive the "luck" rating?
Short version…we’ve lost a lot of close games.

Long version…it’s a variation of the Pythagorean Theorem. It measures the deviation between our actual winning percentage and what would be expected. For example, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do are lucky (or unlucky). The analytic essentially assumes every team should go .500 in close games. We are losing more than the average.

The more games that are played the larger the sample size, so this Luck factor becomes more defined as the season goes on.
 
I wouldn’t say that Valpo was lucky to win the game, but I think we can all agree they hit some shots at the end that very well defended and probably don’t make in most situations. Call it whatever you want but when Valpo needed a basket they got it. Sometimes the sun shines on you and those shots go in. Sometimes they don’t. Hopefully it starts to even out for us later in the season.
 
I wouldn’t say that Valpo was lucky to win the game, but I think we can all agree they hit some shots at the end that very well defended and probably don’t make in most situations. Call it whatever you want but when Valpo needed a basket they got it. Sometimes the sun shines on you and those shots go in. Sometimes they don’t. Hopefully it starts to even out for us later in the season.
Agreed. Luck can’t be defined by one game. The individual flow of the game will dictate that individual outcome. Over the course of 30+ games, though, a trend can be set. We’re trending towards being unlucky.
 
We all need to remember that Valpo has started playing really well. They were coming off a nice win against UNI and had recently taken Loyola into double OT in Chicago. It's amazing that after foul trouble/short bench we were able to come back and "almost" win. Kudos to the staff/players for hanging in there and not giving up.
 
Short version…we’ve lost a lot of close games.

Long version…it’s a variation of the Pythagorean Theorem. It measures the deviation between our actual winning percentage and what would be expected. For example, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do are lucky (or unlucky). The analytic essentially assumes every team should go .500 in close games. We are losing more than the average.

The more games that are played the larger the sample size, so this Luck factor becomes more defined as the season goes on.
The biggest "luck" factor hit when Key got injured. They have had quite a few gut punches that makes people want to quit. However, I like that this team gets back and scraps. Even the loss yesterday was an example of how it would have been easier to just accept the loss yesterday. They were down by 10-11 and they still scratched and clawed all the way back to tie it. The final shot didn't result in the win but they didn't quit fighting. Again, they have very little size, new system, best player is out for the year, their best shooter is out for the game, multiple players fouled out...and yet they don't quit. To me that is a really good sign for things to come.
 

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The biggest "luck" factor hit when Key got injured. They have had quite a few gut punches that makes people want to quit. However, I like that this team gets back and scraps. Even the loss yesterday was an example of how it would have been easier to just accept the loss yesterday. They were down by 10-11 and they still scratched and clawed all the way back to tie it. The final shot didn't result in the win but they didn't quit fighting. Again, they have very little size, new system, best player is out for the year, their best shooter is out for the game, multiple players fouled out...and yet they don't quit. To me that is a really good sign for things to come.
AMEN and AMEN!!!!!
 
=/- Report for Jan. 22, 2022 at home versus Valpo. Valpo 75 vs ISU 73

Player............................Minutes..................................+/-
Hobbs............................22.............................................-10..............Huge three missed FT's to open second half. Fouled out. On floor to open second half -7 in 2.5 min and
.....................................................................................................................again from 13:34-11:12 when outscored by 8. Two rough stretches for ISU.
Bledson.........................19......................................................-7.................Also fouled out
Thomas.........................40.........................................................................-2...........coaches showing a lot of confidence in him.
Wilbar............................22..........................................................................................+2
Larry...............................21..............................................................................-1...........fewest minutes he has played since his foot got better.
Henry............................28.....................................................................................0....................dynamic game from a scoring perspective
Stephens......................32................................................................................................................+7....On the bench for first 2.5 minutes of second half when outscored by 7
Crawford......................18..........................................................................................+1......................A reappearance and solid effort
 
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