So this is a fairly loaded field; obviously, because it includes the Sycamores...
We have a chance to make some noise here, but I will not go into the tournament with any unrealistic expectations. Gonzaga, Iowa State and Florida are all really good. Seton Hall is pretty decent, too. Miami and Stanford are in the next tier, both in high-major conferences but expected to finish in the middle or towards the bottom of their leagues. Quinnipiac will be playing in the 7th place game, for sure.
This is how I realistically see the tournament shaping up:
- Game 1: Lose to Iowa State
- Game 2: Beat Stanford
- Game 3: Lose to Seton Hall
This would give us a top-25 loss and a top-50 loss, which wouldn't hurt, and a top-100 win along with the chance to build some confidence playing well against some bigger-name opponents. Stanford is very beatable as they are projected to finish 9th or 10th in the PAC-12. There's also a chance we can beat Seton Hall, but in terms of preseason hype and ranking they are currently a better team than we are on paper. Worst-case scenario, we could lose to Stanford in our second game and end up playing Quinnipiac for 7th place; leaving the tournament 1-2 without any quality wins to show for it.
So...I think we're going to end up 1-2 in the tournament. What kind of 1-2 is the question.