# You won't hit the lottery every year



## GoBlueISU

This team is bad because our recruiting has been average over the last several years. Go read the recruit threads and see that most of the kids on this team had no other suitors or they were from weak conferences. The staff hit the lottery with 13 and haven't since. They need to recruit the best in the Midwest and win some battles.


----------



## sycamorebacker

GoBlueISU said:


> This team is bad because our recruiting has been average over the last several years. Go read the recruit threads and see that most of the kids on this team had no other suitors or they were from weak conferences. The staff hit the lottery with 13 and haven't since. They need to recruit the best in the Midwest and win some battles.



That's been a problem since we've been in D1.  It's a struggle but it makes it interesting.  We have some players that are good enough.  Right now, I'd say it is a "team" problem.  
It still boils down to getting players.  Imagine how good we would have been the last so many years without the benefit of transfers or local players.


----------



## Jason Svoboda

You're correct. We've got multiple guys on our roster that had no other offers out of high school or were only offered by low-major programs. If we're ever going to ascend into the upper echelon of the Valley, recruiting must get better. 

What is really going to punch you in the balls is when you realize the guards we've got is all we'll have for the next two years. We gain all bigs next year between our transfer and our recruits. The staff is going to have some difficult decisions to make after the season if none of these guys come around.


----------



## hans1950

This is not a new problem as we all know.We've gotten the guys who weren't wanted by anybody else for as long as I can remember.Heck,Larry Bird was one of those guys who got here by accident.We have to hope every year that somebody outperforms their potential coming out of high school.In our geographic area we probably have more competition for players than almost anywhere in the country.That doesn't count the Indiana kids who go further away to school.

We will always have to work harder just to compete.It does seem that we should get lucky once in awhile and we have but it won't be every year.Football has the same problem.Just our lot in life,like it or not.I suppose we should pursue transfers harder but that's a crap shoot too.No real good answer except to keep trying as I'm sure Coach Lansing is doing.It does seem like we should get a shooter or two pretty regularly though.


----------



## sycamorebacker

Jason Svoboda said:


> You're correct. We've got multiple guys on our roster that had no other offers out of high school or were only offered by low-major programs. If we're ever going to ascend into the upper echelon of the Valley, recruiting must get better.
> 
> What is really going to punch you in the balls is when you realize the guards we've got is all we'll have for the next two years. We gain all bigs next year between our transfer and our recruits. The staff is going to have some difficult decisions to make after the season if none of these guys come around.



I guess I disagree.  I'm not concerned at all about Scott, Brown, Bennett or Etherington; and I think Q will be good.  I think our biggest problem is big guys and I think we have some promise there.

You can all me out if these guys don't come through by the end of next year, but I don't think you'll need to.


----------



## IndyTreeFan

sycamorebacker said:


> I guess I disagree.  I'm not concerned at all about Scott, Brown, Bennett or Etherington; and I think Q will be good.  I think our biggest problem is big guys and I think we have some promise there.
> 
> You can all me out if these guys don't come through by the end of next year, but I don't think you'll need to.



I agree with you.


----------



## Jason Svoboda

sycamorebacker said:


> I guess I disagree.  I'm not concerned at all about Scott, Brown, Bennett or Etherington; and I think Q will be good.  I think our biggest problem is big guys and I think we have some promise there.
> 
> You can all me out if these guys don't come through by the end of next year, but I don't think you'll need to.



You could very well be right. I didn't put Etherington into the guards group. I also think Scott will be fine provided he fully buys in. He's got another gear that nobody else on our team seems to have and endless confidence. 

My concerns focus around Q, Prusator and Bennett. For being a scorer at the JUCO level, Bennett has been underwhelming to me. Prusator can shoot as long as he is wide open but is a defensive liability and I really wish Q would have redshirted so he could have learned the system. I think Q has the highest ceiling of the 3 but we needed instant help this year so that is where my frustration/disappointment lies.


----------



## IndyTreeFan

Jason Svoboda said:


> You could very well be right. I didn't put Etherington into the guards group. I also think Scott will be fine provided he fully buys in. He's got another gear that nobody else on our team seems to have and endless confidence.
> 
> My concerns focus around Q, Prusator and Bennett. For being a scorer at the JUCO level, Bennett has been underwhelming to me. Prusator can shot as long as he is wide open but is a defensive liability and I really wish Q would have redshirted so he could have learned the system. I think Q has the highest ceiling of the 3 but we needed instant help this year so that is where my frustration/disappointment lies.



I think Q will be fine.  In my mind, you have to understand, he was all set to redshirt, probably had planned on it, also broke his hand and missed a couple weeks of practice.  Then he gets, "Hey Q, go in."  Talk about being thrown to the wolves.  I'm willing to grade him on a curve for now.


----------



## SycamoreinTexas

I understand ISU isn't going to get the top recruits year in and year out, so when does it fall back on the coaches for not developing players?


----------



## sycamorebacker

SycamoreinTexas said:


> I understand ISU isn't going to get the top recruits year in and year out, so when does it fall back on the coaches for not developing players?



Who said they weren't developing players?


----------



## sycamorebacker

Jason Svoboda said:


> You could very well be right. I didn't put Etherington into the guards group. I also think Scott will be fine provided he fully buys in. He's got another gear that nobody else on our team seems to have and endless confidence.
> 
> My concerns focus around Q, Prusator and Bennett. For being a scorer at the JUCO level, Bennett has been underwhelming to me. Prusator can shoot as long as he is wide open but is a defensive liability and I really wish Q would have redshirted so he could have learned the system. I think Q has the highest ceiling of the 3 but we needed instant help this year so that is where my frustration/disappointment lies.



Give Tre time.  He played Juco last year.  Remember, a few Decembers ago some on here were calling Walker "garbage."   Just look at the improvement of Cummings and Walker their 2nd year.  Bennett's assists have improved already.  When his shot starts falling, he will be an asset.


----------



## SycamoreStateofMind

I just can't find it within me to give DeVonte Brown a free pass - I just can't. I'm not going to make some blanket statement like Brown just sucks, not doing that. I am simply saying look at the numbers. 

He has 21 turnovers to 14 assists - he is averaging 3 turnovers per game. He only had 9 turnovers at this point last season. 

He only has 3 steals this season. At this point last year he already had 10. 

He is 2 of 11 on the season from 3 point range, I would give him the red light to shoot 3's for now. 

His Free Throw shooting has not improved it is the still the same. I've asked this many times on this forum, what good is it to get into the lane and get fouled if you are not going to shoot it better than 65%, that is just horrible. 

So all I really have good to say about his game is that he is rebounding the ball really well for us as he is second on the team in rebounding. His defense has been just okay if you ask me, his steal numbers are down, his 3 point shooting is awful and he is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. None of these are opinions - all are supported by actual facts. So you look at the numbers and you tell me who should be sitting on the bench.


----------



## sycamorebacker

SycamoreStateofMind said:


> I just can't find it within me to give DeVonte Brown a free pass - I just can't. I'm not going to make some blanket statement like Brown just sucks, not doing that. I am simply saying look at the numbers.
> 
> He has 21 turnovers to 14 assists - he is averaging 3 turnovers per game. He only had 9 turnovers at this point last season.
> 
> He only has 3 steals this season. At this point last year he already had 10.
> 
> He is 2 of 11 on the season from 3 point range, I would give him the red light to shoot 3's for now.
> 
> His Free Throw shooting has not improved it is the still the same. I've asked this many times on this forum, what good is it to get into the lane and get fouled if you are not going to shoot it better than 65%, that is just horrible.
> 
> So all I really have good to say about his game is that he is rebounding the ball really well for us as he is second on the team in rebounding. His defense has been just okay if you ask me, his steal numbers are down, his 3 point shooting is awful and he is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. None of these are opinions - all are supported by actual facts. So you look at the numbers and you tell me who should be sitting on the bench.



I agree.   I think we could write a book about our lack of leadership from some of our experienced players.  It's a long season.  I just hope that we will be peaking in Feb and Mar.


----------



## Jason Svoboda

SycamoreStateofMind said:


> I just can't find it within me to give DeVonte Brown a free pass - I just can't. I'm not going to make some blanket statement like Brown just sucks, not doing that. I am simply saying look at the numbers.
> 
> He has 21 turnovers to 14 assists - he is averaging 3 turnovers per game. He only had 9 turnovers at this point last season.
> 
> He only has 3 steals this season. At this point last year he already had 10.
> 
> He is 2 of 11 on the season from 3 point range, I would give him the red light to shoot 3's for now.
> 
> His Free Throw shooting has not improved it is the still the same. I've asked this many times on this forum, what good is it to get into the lane and get fouled if you are not going to shoot it better than 65%, that is just horrible.
> 
> So all I really have good to say about his game is that he is rebounding the ball really well for us as he is second on the team in rebounding. His defense has been just okay if you ask me, his steal numbers are down, his 3 point shooting is awful and he is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. None of these are opinions - all are supported by actual facts. So you look at the numbers and you tell me who should be sitting on the bench.



I'm not giving him a free pass, either. However I have looked at the stats and more advanced metrics than probably anyone else has. So in looking at those, your thoughts on Devonte are flawed in my opinion and here is why:

On turnovers: Last year he played the SG spot exclusively with Odum at the PG spot. When he played with Dawon, Cummings would move to the point from the 2. This year he has played the SG spot when on the floor with Tre but if they bring in Brenton or Grant, he's forced into the PG job which he just isn't capable of because they don't trust either of those guys handling the ball. Lansing even pointed to this in the Butler pregame show but said it in much nicer words. Further, assists are down for everyone due to poor shooting numbers. I'm also not going to fault him on turnovers because he's the only guy we have not trying to shoot a three pointer every time he touches the ball so he's going to turn the ball over because he goes 0-100 to the rim with ZFG. Finally, his turnovers as I pointed out in the other thread aren't out of whack compared to everyone else on the team when you look at TO/40 numbers. You have to equalize the numbers since he is averaging 32mpg, Tre is at 21mpg, Brenton is at 26mpg and Pru/Q are averaging 10mpg. 

On shooting: Even shooting 65% from the line, I've already mentioned his FTr and he has the second highest points per shot on the team. Those are both important statistics that show offensive efficiency as well as his 2PFG% is 50% second only to only Kitch's 54%. Further, he's never been an outside shooter but I don't feel like it is an issue and you can't have it both ways. Scott has 51 FGA (26 3FGA), Bennett has 41 FGA (26 3FG), Prusator has 15 FGA (11 3FGA) so Devonte's 11 attempts on 57 FGA shows he knows what his strength is. BTW, he's fourth in the entire nation at free throw attempts right now. Yes, 80% would be awesome but I'll live with 65%. At 80%, we're talking 9 more points does that change the outcomes of any of our games? I think if you look at the box scores the answer is no. 

On defense: I think his defense has been fine. Has there been one offensive guard that has gone off on him? I don't recall any. His biggest defensive weakness that he seemed to have never mastered is his off the ball defense and specifically getting around screens. On the ball however, he's been pretty damn stout.  

Plus, you've always hated Devonte since he got pub for going off in the exhibition game. So there is always that. LOL


----------



## SycamoreStateofMind

Some how you manged to counter every single statiatic that I posted. 

Basically refuting what the stats say, so it is not me that is flawed it is the stats that are flawed. The only thing that I posted that was opinion was that he needs to stop shooting 3s and that I can't find it within me to give him a free pass. Not to suggest anyone else has to have the same opinon as me. It aint going to change anything either way he is still not playing very well.

We are talking about a redshirt jr here who continues to shoot it at a clip of 65% how is that okay Jason? It's not okay, above 70% is okay. I sucked at school, I know all about 65% and it wasn't okay for me to get a D in school. It aint okay for a starting D1 guard to get a D in free throw shooting! All things considered free throw shooting aint spanish but it aint baseball either!


----------



## sycamorebacker

So the bottom line is, he is our MVP because we need is ability to generate offense, but he can play better?

Oh, and the FT%, cut him.  If LB couldn't make FT's, I would have played him anyway.


----------



## Jason Svoboda

Here are Devonte's stats and team shooting stats. Feel free to draw your own conclusions. 

2013-2014 Devonte Brown

Team Stats: 45% from floor, 34.8% from 3, 72.3% from line. 

19.3 mpg
5.2 ppg
2.5 rpg
1.7 apg
1.3 topg
1.3 a/to
1.1 spg
0.1 bpg

3.6 FGAPG
2.8 2FGAPG
0.9 3FGAPG
2.9 FTAPG

FG 41.9%
2FG 46.3%
3FG 27.6%
FT 66.7%

Per/40s

10.9 ppg
5.1 rpg
3.5 apg
2.7 topg
2.3 spg

Advanced Metrics

PPS 1.4
TS% 53.1%
eFG 45.2%
FTr 0.532
3PAr 0.234
TRB% 7.8%
AST% 6.9%
TO% 20.8%

2014-2015 Devonte Brown

Team Stats: 38% from floor, 27.5% from 3, 68.8% from line.

32.1 mpg
13.4 ppg
5.4 rpg
2.0 apg
3.0 topg
0.7 a/to
0.4 spg
0.0 bpg

8.1 FGAPG
6.6 2FGAPG
1.6 3FGAPG
9.1 FTAPG

FG 43.9%
2FG 50%
3FG 18.2%
FT 65.6%

Per/40s

16.7 ppg
6.8 rpg
2.5 apg
3.7 topg
0.5 spg

Advanced Metrics

PPS 1.6
TS% 55.2%
eFG% 45.6%
FTr 0.737
3PAr 0.193
TRB% 9.0%
AST% 5.4%
TO% 19.8%


----------



## Jason Svoboda

SycamoreStateofMind said:


> Some how you manged to counter every single statiatic that I posted.
> 
> Basically refuting what the stats say, so it is not me that is flawed it is the stats that are flawed. The only thing that I posted that was opinion was that he needs to stop shooting 3s and that I can't find it within me to give him a free pass. Not to suggest anyone else has to have the same opinon as me. It aint going to change anything either way he is still not playing very well.
> 
> We are talking about a redshirt jr here who continues to shoot it at a clip of 65% how is that okay Jason? It's not okay, above 70% is okay. I sucked at school, I know all about 65% and it wasn't okay for me to get a D in school. It aint okay for a starting D1 guard to get a D in free throw shooting! All things considered free throw shooting aint spanish but it aint baseball either!



The stats aren't flawed. We're sitting at 0-7 right now without Devonte Brown. Guardshock agrees with you, so there is always that buddy. Is 70% your free throw shooting percentage cut off? If so, you just essentially cut the entire team. The only three players left on the squad are Justin Gant (81%) and Khristian Smith (81%) and Brandon Murphy (70%) and two of those guys have a pitchfork crew running them out of town.

Our entire team sucks shooting the ball. The ENTIRE team. ENTIRE TEAM. Loud noises!


----------



## Jason Svoboda

For those interested in digging deeper, here is the 2014 Sycamores spreadsheet I use for data analysis: 

http://sycamorepride.com/docs/MissouriValleyStats2014.xlsx

Here is the glossary from Basketball-Reference.com if you don't know what some of the stats mean.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html


----------



## Jason Svoboda

sycamorebacker said:


> So the bottom line is, he is our MVP because we need is ability to generate offense, but he can play better?
> 
> Oh, and the FT%, cut him.  If LB couldn't make FT's, I would have played him anyway.



Yes, in a nutshell. We need his offense right now and he's providing it to the best of his ability. He needs to turn the ball over less and improve his free throw shooting. He's never had range so I don't give a shit about that if he continues to take the ball to the rim like he has.  

Without him, we're likely 0-7, 1-6 at best. Our Pythagorean W/L is 2-5 so that means individual(s) have done something to win a ball game for us. If you look through the box scores of our wins, it's pretty obvious to see who those guys are.


----------



## SycamoreBlue3209

I'm moderate on DB, but what I don't like is he's a ball stopper or a woodpecker (that's what Jim Jones would say!). Those are two aspects that kill the flow of the offense. I guess it wouldn't hurt if JG, KS, or DB could pour in a damn three.


----------



## meistro

I don't want to bash Devonte. He plays hard just not always smart. His stats were pushed up a little bit against Butler because he scored in the second half when the game was already over. There's no doubt he's gotten better at finishing at the rim. What he hasn't gotten better at is running the team. The problem with most of his turnovers is that they're self inflicted, come at terrible times and they're the same mistakes he was making 3 years ago. I think I get what your saying that for better or worse he is our most valuable player and you're probably right and that's not a good thing.


----------



## Jason Svoboda

Back to the original topic of the thread, here are the offers of our players when they committed to Indiana State:

Brandon Burnett - None 

Alex Etherington - Kansas State, Xavier, Boston, Boston College, New Mexico

Laquarious Paige - Sam Houston State, Abilene Christian, New Orleans, New Hampshire

Brandon Murphy - Kennesaw State, Troy

TJ Bell - Cleveland State, Georgia State

Justin Gant - Bradley, St. Louis, Miami-Ohio, Rice, William Mary, Southern Illinois, Iowa and Evansville

Jake Kitchell - Oregon State, Valpo

Tre Bennett - North Texas, Cal State Fullerton

Grant Prusator - None

Brenton Scott - Ohio, IPFW, Ball State, Wright State, Missouri State

Khristian Smith - Cincinnati, Evansville, IUPUI, Drake, Morehead State

Devonte Brown - Arkansas-Little Rock, Stephen F Austin, Central Connecticut, Long Island


----------



## SycamoreStateofMind

meistro said:


> I don't want to bash Devonte. He plays hard just not always smart. His stats were pushed up a little bit against Butler because he scored in the second half when the game was already over. There's no doubt he's gotten better at finishing at the rim. What he hasn't gotten better at is running the team. The problem with most of his turnovers is that they're self inflicted, come at terrible times and they're the same mistakes he was making 3 years ago. I think I get what your saying that for better or worse he is our most valuable player and you're probably right and that's not a good thing.



^^^^ You nailed it. 

Jason and I agree that he has to play and he has to play above everyone else and that is not good because said player aint that good and the numbers prove it. 

He most defiantly is a ball stopper! I think I've pointed this out more than once but for effect I will say it again. Under 2 mins. after a Butler TO we are down 11 with the ball. After how bad we played in that half and a chance to cut it to single digits (still a ball game), Brown comes down 2 steps inside the 3 point line and shoots a deep 2. No passes, no ball movement, no nothing - he just shoots it. I'm not talking about his turnovers or his free throw shooting I am talking about his decision making, his basketball IQ. It was one of many poor decisions I have seen him make. 

Enough about him, plenty of blame to go around. Plenty of guys haven't done what we need them to do. 

The only guys I am giving a free pass to at this point are TJ Bell, Kitchell and Ethrington. That is all - Bell has played better and that is all I am asking. Kitch is having a career year by his own standards and AE has been hurt so he hasn't had enough time for me to be down on him.


----------



## bigsportsfan

sycamorebacker said:


> Who said they weren't developing players?



Name one player who has improved during Lansing era.... I can't either.


----------



## sycamorebacker

bigsportsfan said:


> Name one player who has improved during Lansing era.... I can't either.



Well, I checked the historical stats and picked some out by scoring average. 

Odum, Walker, Mahurin, Gant, Kitchell, Cummings, Smith, Brown, Burnett


----------



## SycamoreStateofMind

bigsportsfan said:


> Name one player who has improved during Lansing era.... I can't either.



Silence... Hush little baby don't say word mommas gonna...


----------



## Eleven

bigsportsfan said:


> Name one player who has improved during Lansing era.... I can't either.


100% Dawon Cummins
I'd say TJ Bell has as well.


----------



## Eleven

My quote from last year and my answer to anyone that asks me how ISU is going to look this year:

"If we have to have Devonte run the point,  it's going to be a long year".

So far, I haven't changed my mind.


----------



## Jason Svoboda

SycamoreinTexas said:


> I understand ISU isn't going to get the top recruits year in and year out, so when does it fall back on the coaches for not developing players?





Jason Svoboda said:


> Back to the original topic of the thread, here are the offers of our players when they committed to Indiana State:
> 
> Brandon Burnett - None
> 
> Alex Etherington - Kansas State, Xavier, Boston, Boston College, New Mexico
> 
> Laquarious Paige - Sam Houston State, Abilene Christian, New Orleans, New Hampshire
> 
> Brandon Murphy - Kennesaw State, Troy
> 
> TJ Bell - Cleveland State, Georgia State
> 
> Justin Gant - Bradley, St. Louis, Miami-Ohio, Rice, William Mary, Southern Illinois, Iowa and Evansville
> 
> Jake Kitchell - Oregon State, Valpo
> 
> Tre Bennett - North Texas, Cal State Fullerton
> 
> Grant Prusator - None
> 
> Brenton Scott - Ohio, IPFW, Ball State, Wright State, Missouri State
> 
> Khristian Smith - Cincinnati, Evansville, IUPUI, Drake, Morehead State
> 
> Devonte Brown - Arkansas-Little Rock, Stephen F Austin, Central Connecticut, Long Island





bigsportsfan said:


> Name one player who has improved during Lansing era.... I can't either.



If you look at these offer lists as well as those of the guys that left last year, I'd say player development had to have been huge. Maybe not up to your expectations, but if it wasn't player development, are you saying that it was Lansing's system that won all of the games?


----------



## Jason Svoboda

Just some props to Devonte since that is what this thread moved to. His progress in two months:

FG - 38% --> 49.2% (+11.2%)
3FG - 27.5% --> 39.3% (+11.8%)
FT - 68.8% --> 63.6% (-5.2%)
APG - 2.0 --> 2.9 (+0.9 apg)
TOPG - 3.7 --> 3.3 (-0.4 topg)

Aside from the FT percentage dropping 5.2%, not too shabby.


----------



## GoBlueISU

Jason Svoboda said:


> Back to the original topic of the thread, here are the offers of our players when they committed to Indiana State:
> 
> Brandon Burnett - None
> 
> Alex Etherington - Kansas State, Xavier, Boston, Boston College, New Mexico
> 
> Laquarious Paige - Sam Houston State, Abilene Christian, New Orleans, New Hampshire
> 
> Brandon Murphy - Kennesaw State, Troy
> 
> TJ Bell - Cleveland State, Georgia State
> 
> Justin Gant - Bradley, St. Louis, Miami-Ohio, Rice, William Mary, Southern Illinois, Iowa and Evansville
> 
> Jake Kitchell - Oregon State, Valpo
> 
> Tre Bennett - North Texas, Cal State Fullerton
> 
> Grant Prusator - None
> 
> Brenton Scott - Ohio, IPFW, Ball State, Wright State, Missouri State
> 
> Khristian Smith - Cincinnati, Evansville, IUPUI, Drake, Morehead State
> 
> Devonte Brown - Arkansas-Little Rock, Stephen F Austin, Central Connecticut, Long Island



Any chance you can do this for the current roster?


----------



## GoBlueISU

GoBlueISU said:


> Any chance you can do this for the current roster?


Jason?


----------



## Jason Svoboda

GoBlueISU said:


> Jason?


Yeah, sorry. Let me get past NSD tomorrow and then I'll devote some time to doing that. It's going to be pretty similar to the list above so most are still on the team.


----------



## Bluethunder

The list above proves how much of a crapshoot recruiting can be.  Etherington, by far, had the biggest offers yet didn't pan out at all.  Devonte had few offers, yet became an All-MVC player.


----------

