# scenarios for ISU to make I-AA playoffs?



## goindystate

just looking around to see what the odds are that ISU could still make the playoffs. 

Obviously gonna need to win out and end at 7-4. 

Some other teams that we'll be battling with for (probably) the last at-large bid include:

Central Arkansas (plays Texas State next week)
Furman (plays at Elon)
Georgetown (plays Lehigh next)

how much emphasis does the ncaa put on that GPI index? Last week ISU was at #11 and above UCA, Georgetown, and Furman. I'd suspect ISU would at least stay at #11 when the new rankings come out tomorrow. Maybe move into the top 10? 

With WKU continuing to win and look very good, does that help ISU get in over those other 3 teams? 

is there any hope left for a playoff spot? should be interesting


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## Fargobison

You guys need some help....the loss to ISU Red was a killer since getting a 4th MVFC team might be tough....UCA to lose is the big one and so are Furman and JMU. If all three happened I'd say you are lock and you would have a solid chance if two of three lose. 

I don't think Georgetown has any chance, they need to beat Lehigh which I don't see happening. They have no signature wins and a few bad losses.


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## CSapp

Clearly we have to win out. That's a given. Along with that i think they both need to be convincing wins. 

Who does Illinois St have left on the schedule? We definitely need UNI & NDSU to win out rest of season and Ill St has to lose. Penn State getting into Big Ten championship or winning would be nice and WKU needs to win Sun Belt.

Unfortunate part of all of this is I think if we had at least beaten Ill St that we'd be in control of our destiny if we won out. That loss was a killer


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## landrus13

Illinois State still has to play UNI. I think that is the only game Illinois State has left this season.


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## Callmedoc

I still think we are ok. The committee has a history of weighing an FBS victory as a huge moniker.


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## new sycamore fan

TSN still has us in their bracket projection, but I think we still need some other teams to lose again for us to get in (and to not lay an egg against either Missouri State or Southern Illinois, both of whom can beat us the way we have been playing).


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## Sycamore624

Clearly winning out and doing it in impressive fashion is the first part, after that I think we need some help. I'd put our chances right now at about 60%


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## goindystate

TSN's bracket

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

must win last 2, that's all there is to know. 



new sycamore fan said:


> TSN still has us in their bracket projection, but I think we still need some other teams to lose again for us to get in (and to not lay an egg against either Missouri State or Southern Illinois, both of whom can beat us the way we have been playing).


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## niklz62

i think illinois state has to loose saturday also.  one of their losses was to EIU who is 2-8 and plays SIU saturday.


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## ISUCC

if ILS wins, they're in for sure. They have a very real shot to beat UNI, esp. if Rennie doesn't play. 

If they lose and finish 7-4 and if we win our last 2 then the case could be made to take both teams. Conference strength may help the MVFC. Also, our win over WKU has to have some bearing with the NCAA selection committee.

We'll see where ISU lands in the new GPI rankings tomorrow. 



niklz62 said:


> i think illinois state has to lose saturday also.  one of their losses was to EIU who is 2-8 and plays SIU saturday.


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## IndianaState45

Remember ILS didn't play any FBS teams. We played 2. Our strength of schedule has to be much better. That said we still lost :-/


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## bent20

IndianaState45 said:


> Remember ILS didn't play any FBS teams. We played 2. Our strength of schedule has to be much better. That said we still lost :-/



A close game on the road. Will be interesting to see if we're still ranked after this latest loss.


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## DyedBlue

*Sagarin Rankings*

ISU sits at 8th in current Sagarin AA Rankings and needs to reinforce that with 2 more wins.   This system seems to be as data driven and unbiased as any.

Sagarin                                      Sagarin Strength of Schedule
41.....ND State............................................155 
60.....UNI...................................................137 
72.....Montana State....................................156 
84.....Georgia Southern.................................168 
85.....Sam Houston State..............................208 
90.....Wofford..............................................146 
91.....Montana.............................................152 

101....Indiana State.......................................115
      To me, it seem very good for an at large bid sitting at 8th in the Sagarin and with the toughest schedule of any of the top teams (of course playing and losing to ND State & UNI helps ISU's SOS and weakens theirs but that is just the way it is)  with 3 auto qualifiers in the 7 teams above ISU. Only South Dakota has a better SOS than ISU among the top FCS teams.   That should count for something.

105....APPY State..........................................136 
106....Illinois State ........................................166
107....Maine..................................................162 
111....Furman................................................149 
112....Portland State.......................................127 
113....Southern Utah 
114....Cal Poly 
115.....Towson 
117....UT Chat 
118....UNH....................................................158 
119....Lehigh 
121....Harvard 
122....YSU.....................................................161 
123....Brown - really??? 
124....ODU... 
125...South Dakota...........................................108 
128....EWU.. Defending National Champs 
134....Delaware...Defending Runners Up to EWU.....147


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## Callmedoc

GPI is the important one.


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## ISUCC

looks like GPI rankings come out tomorrow, Nov. 1st was the last GPI



Dgreenwell3 said:


> GPI is the important one.


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## ISUCC

GPI is out for the week

ISU fell into a tie for 15th

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stats/writer/GPI/20111107gpi.htm

other teams we're battling with in bold

11/07/2011 GPI Top 25
Rank, School, Rating, Change
1. N Dakota St (1.00) -0
2. Northern Iowa (3.14) -0
3T. Sam Houston St (4.00) -0
3T. Montana St (4.00) +2
5. Ga Southern (4.29) -2
6. Wofford (4.71) +1
7. Appalachian St (8.43) -2
*8. Furman (9.43) +7*
*9. Illinois St (11.86) +5*
10. Lehigh (12.00) -0
11. Montana (13.14) -2
12. New Hampshire (13.43) -0
13. Chattanooga (14.43) +5
14. Maine (15.14) -6
15T. Old Dominion (15.86) +1
*15T. Indiana St (15.86) -4*
*17. Cent Arkansas (18.14) NEW*
18. Brown (18.43) +3
19. Towson (18.71) +1
20. Portland St (20.57) NEW
21. Harvard (21.00) -8
22. Youngstown St (21.86) +1
23. Southern Utah (24.14) +2
24. James Madison (24.86) -7
25. Cal Poly (26.29) -6


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## Bally #50

I have not heard word ONE from anyone on the two polls that have had us #16 or #21 last week. Seems they popped up every Monday but this week. Anybody know where the coaches and the media polls are this week?


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## new sycamore fan

We dropped out of the top 25 in the TSN poll, and are 23rd in the coaches poll.  We have an uphill battle to get in--Furhman's big win last weekend hurt us, and Illinois State is looking golden right now.  It's too bad we laid an egg in that game; it looks like that will come back to haunt us (assuming we get wins the next 2 weeks, which is no where near a given).


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## IndianaState45

It's posted in another thread. 23 FCS 26 Sports Network


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## Bally #50

I must have missed it. Thanks. Not surprising. I figured we would remain in the top 25 and we pretty much covered that. We can only improve from here on out. I still think we are screwed after the IlSt loss unless some strange things happen.


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## ISUCC

totally agree, we need help from above!



Bally #45 said:


> I must have missed it. Thanks. Not surprising. I figured we would remain in the top 25 and we pretty much covered that. We can only improve from here on out. I still think we are screwed after the IlSt loss unless some strange things happen.


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## 4Q_iu

Bally #45 said:


> I must have missed it. Thanks. Not surprising. I figured we would remain in the top 25 and we pretty much covered that. We can only improve from here on out. I still think we are screwed after the IlSt loss unless some strange things happen.



Not sure if it'll be strange but the Montana/Mont State game has to be played; there are several teams in the Colonial that have to face each other (Maine, New Hampshire, Umass, Towson...)  Ga Southern has a big game with Wofford...

Plus two of the teams ahead of us in the polls (coaches, media, combined) are Ivy League teams, they won't be in the playoffs.

If we win out; we should be in a strong position for an at-large bid...   If we'd beaten the Deadbirds, I'd say we're a shoo-in if we win out...

We'll have to wait but WE control our fate.  Thump the Bears and Salukies and we should get it.  If the 'Toppers make a bowl, how good does our beatdown of them look?  Even better


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## goindystate

college sporting news still has us in the playoffs

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?192-Nov.-9-GPI-Playoff-Projections


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## Callmedoc

goindystate said:


> college sporting news still has us in the playoffs
> 
> http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?192-Nov.-9-GPI-Playoff-Projections



They use gpi so that's prolly the most accurate current rendering.


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## niklz62

unlikely i know but what if UNI looses next 2?


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## Bluethunder

We need to win out (would love to win both by a lot) and then we need UNI to beat Illinois State (again, would be nice to see it happen by a lot).  If that happens, I think we will be fine.


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## landrus13

If UNI spanks Illinois State doesn't that make our loss to Illinois State look more awful than it already is?


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## Bluethunder

Probably wouldn't matter in the end, but if they are ranked ahead of us would rather see them lose big and drop big.  We already lost to them straight up, so it probably doesn't matter.  However, would like to finish the year ranked ahead of them in any poll or index there is.  Having them lose to UNI by 30 would help that happen, having them lose in 3 OT would probably keep them ranked ahead of us in all the polls and thus make it easier for us to be passed over for an at-large.  As I mentioned at the top, probably wouldn't make a huge difference, just looking for any advantage.


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## Callmedoc

Take the transitive theory out of the picture...UNI spanking ilsu will help us quite a bit.


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## goindystate

scores of interest to ISU

Georgetown is losing big to Lehigh, (good for ISU)

SEMO is beating Jacksonville State 21-9 in the 3rd Q, (good for ISU)

SUU plays UNI later (need UNI to win)

Central Arkansas plays Texas State later (need TSU to win)

Rhode Island is playing James Madison (need a Rhode Island win).

Furman is winning 20-13 over Elon (need an Elon win I think)


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## goindystate

Folks, we got help!

Georgetown lost to Lehigh

and more importantly Furman lost to Elon! this is BIG for ISU


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## bent20

Southern Illinois up on Eastern in the third now. Won't be an easy game next weekend.


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## goindystate

SIU did win

so now with YSU winning today, they have a shot to end 7-4 also, as they play at home vs. MSU next week. 

Does the MVFC get 5 teams in?? Both ISU's and YSU could end at 7-4. Who gets left out?? If ILS wins over UNI then they're in for sure at 8-3

James Madison won, so that doesn't help ISU. Jacksonville State won also, but I don't think they get in over ISU. 

right now Texas State is winning over Central Arkansas. a loss by UCA really helps ISU, so go Texas State!


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## goindystate

Central Arkansas just beat Texas State 23-22, so UCA ends at 8-3. They're below ISU in the GPI so hopefully they won't take a spot from the MVFC??

UCA has won 6 in a row now.


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## CSapp

Have a feeling with the NDSU loss this week we might be in trouble. Particularly if UNI doesn't beat Ill St next week


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## Callmedoc

Yeahhhhh BUT this could be a blessing in disguise...with this loss by NDSU it will start to void that Transitive theory...


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## goindystate

I agree, we REALLY need UNI to beat ILS next week now. I think we'd have the better argument to make the playoffs despite the fact that ILS did beat us 17-14. ILS has that awful loss to EIU hanging over their heads. 



CSapp said:


> Have a feeling with the NDSU loss this week we might be in trouble. Particularly if UNI doesn't beat Ill St next week


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## niklz62

goindystate said:


> I agree, we REALLY need UNI to beat ILS next week now. I think we'd have the better argument to make the playoffs despite the fact that ILS did beat us 17-14. ILS has that awful loss to EIU hanging over their heads.



We also need them to turn their current game around.  they are down 21-17 at the half(UNI)


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## goindystate

UNI now leading 24-21

I agree with Golden on Twitter, that YSU win today really hurt ISU. 

I think the only way we get in now is if UNI wins at Illinois State and we beat SIU and end at 7-4, tied with ILS. I still think we get in over ILS if we have identical records. 

we all need to be serious UNI fans next weekend!


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## Bally #50

My thinking is that if we are both tied at 7-4, the tie is broken by the head-to-head with each other. Frankly I think we have a very slim chance to get in. Damn, I hope I am wrong.


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## IndianaState45

UNI wins. SUU can't take a playoff spot now


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## goindystate

we REALLY needed UCA to lose today too, but they barely snuck past Texas State. 

TSU was driving for the go ahead score with less than a minute in the game, but their QB threw an INT and that ended it. 



IndianaState45 said:


> UNI wins. SUU can't take a playoff spot now


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## IndianaState45

What if UNI loses... Is that really all that bad? Then it's NDSU, ILS, and UNI, INS, and YSU tied for third assuming wins for Trees and Guins. If you are choosing between YSU and ISU for a fourth MVFC team wouldn't a head to head win and FBS win go our way? Also if UNI wins it's NDSU, UNI, and INS, ILS, and YSU tied once again why wouldn't we get in with FBS win and head to head win over YSU? I do agree however it's a cluster and much less clear now.


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## goindystate

it's all gonna depend on how the NCAA weighs everyone's wins and losses. 

We have the wins over YSU and WKU

YSU has the wins over ILS and ndsu

ILS has their win over us and if they beat UNI then that would be huge and pretty much seal them into the playoffs. 

I've said it before, but I really think if ILS, YSU and INS end at 7-4 then I think ILS is gonna be on the outside looking in, UNLESS the MVFC gets some help from other potential at-large teams losing next week. 

we'll have to see what teams around the country still have a shot to be 7-4, and what kind of signature wins they all have. 

it's a mess, but we have to win next week, then worry later. A loss and we're done. 



IndianaState45 said:


> What if UNI loses... Is that really all that bad? Then it's NDSU, ILS, and UNI, INS, and YSU tied for third assuming wins for Trees and Guins. If you are choosing between YSU and ISU for a fourth MVFC team wouldn't a head to head win and FBS win go our way? Also if UNI wins it's NDSU, UNI, and INS, ILS, and YSU tied once again why wouldn't we get in with FBS win and head to head win over YSU? I do agree however it's a cluster and much less clear now.


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## IndianaState45

It's frustrating to be this close isn't it. Man we need a Saluki stomp next week. I guess ILS losing is the better scenario ..... Maybe our Bear fans can light a fire under Mo State and help them knock off the Guins.


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## Sycamore Proud

I wish we knew how valuable the WKU win is.  It has to be a major factor with them being close to bowl eligible and 2nd in the Sun Belt.  I know the fact that we put 44 points on the Hill Toppers in Bowling Green and LSU only put 42 on them is Death Valley is insignificant; but it is kinda cool.


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## agrinut

IndianaState45 said:


> It's frustrating to be this close isn't it. Man we need a Saluki stomp next week. I guess ILS losing is the better scenario ..... Maybe our Bear fans can light a fire under Mo State and help them knock off the Guins.



This fanbase and community has chosen not to participate in the rest of the season. An 11,000 average attendance isn't bad for a 1 win team, but that is all they can ask now.


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## goindystate

here's a good breakdown of next week. 

http://www.college-sports-journal.c...l/chuck-burton/93-playoff-eligibility-week-12

It appears from looking thru this site that if Wofford & James Madison both lose, then the MVFC gets 5 teams in. Both Wofford and JMU have road games against teams that are pretty good. 

So for the MVFC we need to pay attention to those 2 games the most. 

And of course ISU and YSU must win. If ILS loses it's gonna be interesting to see what happens to them?

next Saturday is gonna be INTENSE


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## niklz62

would they put in 4 or 5 teams from one conference.  I know weve only had 1 year of a 20 team playoff bracket so that throws question marks in the mix


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## SycamoreFootball

*Watch out for YOUNGSTOWN STATE...*

They beat NDS and played UNI much closer than us...and played Michigan STate much closer than we did against Penn State.

They may be a dark horse...


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## Bally #50

In their case....maybe a dark "bird"?


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## goindystate

not that it means anything, but the Sports Network still has us in the playoffs, and not YSU

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

they have us going to UCA

the only change I could see in that bracket is if Wofford loses, then remove them and add YSU


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## goindystate

does the ncaa even consider the Sagarin ratings? Looking at the updated rankings today it's clear the MVFC is the toughest conference in I-AA. We have FOUR teams ranked in the top 100, no other I-AA conference has more than 2. And we're nearly ahead of the Sunbelt too. All 5 teams should get in if you ask me. 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc11.htm

CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  BIG 12              (A) =  84.66      84.10  (  1)     10      84.29  (  1)
   2  SOUTHEASTERN        (A) =  80.14      80.38  (  2)     12      80.32  (  2)
   3  BIG TEN             (A) =  76.21      75.28  (  4)     12      75.60  (  3)
   4  PAC-12              (A) =  75.31      75.74  (  3)     12      75.49  (  4)
   5  ATLANTIC COAST      (A) =  72.46      72.24  (  6)     12      72.28  (  6)
   6  BIG EAST            (A) =  72.36      72.31  (  5)      8      72.32  (  5)
   7  I-A INDEPENDENTS    (A) =  71.08      71.24  (  7)      4      71.18  (  7)
   8  MOUNTAIN WEST       (A) =  67.27      67.34  (  8)      8      67.21  (  8)
   9  CONFERENCE USA      (A) =  65.56      65.15  (  9)     12      65.45  (  9)
  10  WESTERN ATHLETIC    (A) =  63.88      64.25  ( 10)      8      64.20  ( 10)
  11  MID-AMERICAN        (A) =  63.14      62.63  ( 11)     13      62.89  ( 11)
  12  SUN BELT            (A) =  59.10      58.85  ( 12)      9      58.91  ( 12)
*13  MISSOURI VALLEY     (AA)=  58.89      58.53  ( 13)      9      58.60  ( 13)*
  14  SOUTHERN            (AA)=  57.30      56.60  ( 15)      9      56.87  ( 14)
  15  GREAT WEST          (AA)=  57.20      56.83  ( 14)      5      56.85  ( 15)
  16  BIG SKY             (AA)=  55.23      54.78  ( 16)      9      55.03  ( 16)
  17  COLONIAL            (AA)=  54.91      54.44  ( 17)     11      54.50  ( 17)

13  MISSOURI VALLEY     (AA)=  58.89      58.53  ( 13)   TEAMS=  9      58.60  ( 13)
College Football 2011 through games of November 12 Saturday           the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE=  2.41           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR  
  54  North Dakota State   AA =  72.15    9   1   55.22( 146)    0   0  |    0   0  |   72.27   55 |   71.23   59
  67  Northern Iowa        AA =  70.50    8   2   57.51( 132)    0   0  |    0   0  |   70.88   61 |   69.34   72
  96  Youngstown State     AA =  62.90    6   4   56.55( 139)    0   0  |    0   1  |   62.84   96 |   62.17   98
*98  Indiana State        AA =  62.67    6   4   60.19( 124)    0   0  |    0   1  |   65.39   86 |   59.28  116*
 103  Illinois State       AA =  61.86    7   3   52.48( 165)    0   0  |    0   0  |   60.82  109 |   62.11   99


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## Bluethunder

goindystate said:


> not that it means anything, but the Sports Network still has us in the playoffs, and not YSU
> 
> http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf
> 
> they have us going to UCA
> 
> the only change I could see in that bracket is if Wofford loses, then remove them and add YSU



Basically by putting us on the road and then having the winner play the number one team, they have us as the last team in.  If we were at home, I would say we would be the second to last team in, but being on the road they must have us as the last at large. 

Oh well, I will still take it.


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## bigsportsfan

Maybe somebody else already posted this, but here is a PDF from last year about the MVFC tiebreaking rules.  I read it several times, and it seems more difficult than it ought to be.

Even though it is titled "2010" I'm assuming things haven't changed since last year.

http://mvcadmin.org/forms/procedures/football.pdf


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## bigsportsfan

I just re-read the whole thing.  Interesting that officials make $750 a game.  Wow.


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## letsgoguins

I think the biggest reason YSU is not in that bracket is the fact they didn't receive a damn vote in the entire SportsNetwork poll last week, as ridiculous as that may sound.

Anyways here is what one of our writer's just published: 
http://letsgoguins.com/fan-blog/427-fan-blog-penguins-back-in-playoff-picture

A good breakdown with his predictions at the end.


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## IndianaState45

letsgoguins said:


> I think the biggest reason YSU is not in that bracket is the fact they didn't receive a damn vote in the entire SportsNetwork poll last week, as ridiculous as that may sound.
> 
> Anyways here is what one of our writer's just published:
> http://letsgoguins.com/fan-blog/427-fan-blog-penguins-back-in-playoff-picture
> 
> A good breakdown with his predictions at the end.



Nice article except of course for the pick against the trees. What else would you expect him to say as a Guin.


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## niklz62

bigsportsfan said:


> I just re-read the whole thing.  Interesting that officials make $750 a game.  Wow.



It takes a lot of effort, skill and butt kissing to get in the MVC as an official.  also a rediculous amount of time


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## ISUBBallFan

I personally think that MVC Officials are terrible officials in both Football and BAsketball, but that is just me.


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## Callmedoc

ISUBBallFan said:


> I personally think that MVC Officials are terrible officials in both Football and BAsketball, but that is just me.



You are absolutely CORRECT. I will say this though, every other team in the MVC gets home cooking why in football and basketball do we never get home cooking like every other team? And Agrinut I don't want to hear about the foul at the end of regulation last year lol....


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## 4Q_iu

IndianaState45 said:


> Nice article except of course for the pick against the trees. What else would you expect him to say as a Guin.



Interesting comment about our thumping of the Toppers...  While it was impressive at the time, it's even MORE impressive since they've went on their bowl run...   the author felt differently...


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## Callmedoc

IndianaState45 said:


> Nice article except of course for the pick against the trees. What else would you expect him to say as a Guin.



The way how he worded it I don't understand his argument of slighting the W over WKU...


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## 4Q_iu

*Is this poll accurate / correct??*

The Sports Network (media...)

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/...network&page=cfoot2/misc/tsn-div-1aa-poll.htm


If so, how in the  do Portland State and Tenn Tech (?!) jump US to land in the Top 25??  Is there an unwritten rule that every conf has to be represented??

Confident the coaches and computers will be fair;   media polls...


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## BigBlue79

Well it looks like if you lose to penn state #12 fbs....the number one and two teams and number 15 and beat an fbs school...you suck too bad to go to the playoffs....how stupid...Five mvfc teams need to be in the playoffs...if not...i won't follow playoffs again just conference championships...


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## letsgoguins

BigBlue79 said:


> Well it looks like if you lose to penn state #12 fbs....the number one and two teams and number 15 and beat an fbs school...you suck too bad to go to the playoffs....how stupid...Five mvfc teams need to be in the playoffs...if not...i won't follow playoffs again just conference championships...



I got in touch with him and he wanted me to clarify something: He believed the WKU win was solid at the time, but it is much stronger now due to WKU's success. He apologizes for not making mention of that. However, he is not sure that is as strong as a win on the road over #1 NDSU. That will be a sticking point in the meeting room for sure.

Secondly, Penn State is not #12, more like #22.

As he stated, he hopes all five can get in, but if just four do get in, which appears to be the consensus opinion on the forums, he believes those four are NDSU-UNI-ILSU-YSU.

Feel free to shoot him any concerns comments on the comment section of the article.


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## IndianaState45

Yea it's hard to gauge but the two non scholly teams YSU played with the head to head loss to us is likely to hurt you on strength of schedule. The ISU/YSU/ ILS we beat you etc etc is completely circular. Then its likely to come down to quality wins/ bad losses and opponents played. If all have identical conference and other win/loss records I think both ILS and YSU could have soft spots. Two non scholly teams for YSU.  A loss to SDSU as well. ILS didn't play an FBS. Highlights for ILS....beating us. YSU...ILS and NDSU. Us...YSU and potentially the only bowl bound FBS school who lost to an FCS school. ILS could be the odd man out but YSU could have trouble as well.


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## Callmedoc

I still think Illinois state  attention is in trouble if we aren't in the playoffs as of right now because we are the only real quality win. If we aren't in, I just dont see how they will


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## letsgoguins

IndianaState45 said:


> Yea it's hard to gauge but the two non scholly teams YSU played with the head to head loss to us is likely to hurt you on strength of schedule. The ISU/YSU/ ILS we beat you etc etc is completely circular. Then its likely to come down to quality wins/ bad losses and opponents played. If all have identical conference and other win/loss records I think both ILS and YSU could have soft spots. Two non scholly teams for YSU.  A loss to SDSU as well. ILS didn't play an FBS. Highlights for ILS....beating us. YSU...ILS and NDSU. Us...YSU and potentially the only bowl bound FBS school who lost to an FCS school. ILS could be the odd man out but YSU could have trouble as well.



The other thing that may be brought up is the performance of all three vs. the other top 4 in the league, the playoff contenders:

*INSU:* L 27-16 to NDSU (-11), L 23-9 to UNI (-14), L 17-14 to ILSU (-3), W 37-35 vs. YSU (+2) = -11-14-3+2 = -6.5 average margin.

*ILSU:* L 20-10 to NDSU (-10), W 17-14 vs. INSU (+3), L 35-28 vs. YSU (-7)= -10+3-7 = -4.67 average margin.

*YSU:* W 27-24 to NDSU (+3), L 21-17 to UNI (-4), W 35-28 vs. ILSU (+7), L 37-35 to INSU (-2)= 3-4+7-2 = +1 average margin.

Essentially this shows how competitive each team was against the best in the league. The order there is YSU-ILSU-INSU.


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## niklz62

I wonder if the selection committee puts as much thought in it as we have?


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## True Blue

letsgoguins said:


> The other thing that may be brought up is the performance of all three vs. the other top 4 in the league, the playoff contenders:
> 
> *INSU:* L 27-16 to NDSU (-11), L 23-9 to UNI (-14), L 17-14 to ILSU (-3), W 37-35 vs. YSU (+2) = -11-14-3+2 = -6.5 average margin.
> 
> *ILSU:* L 20-10 to NDSU (-10), W 17-14 vs. INSU (+3), L 35-28 vs. YSU (-7)= -10+3-7 = -4.67 average margin.
> 
> *YSU:* W 27-24 to NDSU (+3), L 21-17 to UNI (-4), W 35-28 vs. ILSU (+7), L 37-35 to INSU (-2)= 3-4+7-2 = +1 average margin.
> 
> Essentially this shows how competitive each team was against the best in the league. The order there is YSU-ILSU-INSU.



I put 0 stock in the margins of the losses.  They don't take into account that ISU was driving for the winning score in 2 of those games(UNI and ISUr) with less than 3 minutes to go. Also down 1 score with just a few minutes left against NDSU, ready to get the ball back and QB makes an unbelievable play to escape a sack on 3rd down.


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## 4Q_iu

True Blue said:


> I put 0 stock in the margins of the losses.  They don't take into account that ISU was driving for the winning score in 2 of those games(UNI and ISUr) with less than 3 minutes to go. Also down 1 score with just a few minutes left against NDSU, ready to get the ball back and QB makes an unbelievable play to escape a sack on 3rd down.



Leave it to a YSU fan to point out pt. differential to strengthen THEIR case...
C-O-N-spiracy...


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## Eleven

We all knew that the loss to Ill State was bad when it happened... it's HUGE now..


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## IndianaState45

letsgoguins said:


> The other thing that may be brought up is the performance of all three vs. the other top 4 in the league, the playoff contenders:
> 
> *INSU:* L 27-16 to NDSU (-11), L 23-9 to UNI (-14), L 17-14 to ILSU (-3), W 37-35 vs. YSU (+2) = -11-14-3+2 = -6.5 average margin.
> 
> *ILSU:* L 20-10 to NDSU (-10), W 17-14 vs. INSU (+3), L 35-28 vs. YSU (-7)= -10+3-7 = -4.67 average margin.
> 
> *YSU:* W 27-24 to NDSU (+3), L 21-17 to UNI (-4), W 35-28 vs. ILSU (+7), L 37-35 to INSU (-2)= 3-4+7-2 = +1 average margin.
> 
> Essentially this shows how competitive each team was against the best in the league. The order there is YSU-ILSU-INSU.



No disrespect but this is probably the absolute last thing they would look at. All the games were close. Blah Blah Blah my team is better on sunny days versus windy days....it just really doesn't matter. What does matter if identical 7-4 records and conference records are had by all three teams is who else did you play and the quality of those wins and losses. Again...ILS had one good win....ISU, a terrible loss to EIU, and played 0 FBS teams. YSU did beat a great NDSU, ILS, but lost to SDSU, and played TWO SOFTY non scholly teams. ISU has a head to head win over then ranked YSU and a massive beatdown on a possible bowl bound FBS WKU, and no bad losses. One game doesn't make a season for the Guins. Was it an awesome win? Sure it was but it's not an entire season. If one of those teams were 8-3 I'd say that could be a deciding factor but only ILS has that chance.


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## Eleven

I agree with IS45.

They will look at records, head-to-head.. if that's all a tie (in this case it would be between the three), then they go to "quality wins" and "bad losses" and "blowouts"... at least that's all I've ever read before..  So, add up your quality wins, subtract the "bad losses".. and see where they stand.


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## FORMER SYCAMORE

I think we need a not only a loss by the Red Birds but a beat down.  If they win or lose a real close one I see them getting in.  I think a major factor that hasn't been talked about on here that the committee will look at is how all the teams finish.  

ILST....if they lose against UNI they will have gone 5-1 last 6 games

YSU...if they win they are 5-1 last 6

INDST...When we win we are 3-3 last 6 games

Unfortunately past playoffs have soured the committee on giving more then 4 spots to a conference.  Obviously I believe we are capable and deserving of a playoff spot.  I just think we are on the outside looking in.  Hopefully there will be some upsets of other bubble teams around the country and we get the nod to play.  Has there been any talk on what the university is willing to bid for a home game in the first round?


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## LoyalAlum

FORMER SYCAMORE said:


> I think we need a not only a loss by the Red Birds but a beat down.  If they win or lose a real close one I see them getting in.  I think a major factor that hasn't been talked about on here that the committee will look at is how all the teams finish.
> 
> ILST....if they lose against UNI they will have gone 5-1 last 6 games
> 
> YSU...if they win they are 5-1 last 6
> 
> INDST...When we win we are 3-3 last 6 games
> 
> Unfortunately past playoffs have soured the committee on giving more then 4 spots to a conference.  Obviously I believe we are capable and deserving of a playoff spot.  I just think we are on the outside looking in.  Hopefully there will be some upsets of other bubble teams around the country and we get the nod to play.  *Has there been any talk on what the university is willing to bid for a home game in the first round*?



Todd Golden tweeted last night that we did put a bid in for a home game in the first round.


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## LoyalAlum

According to Real Time RPI, our strength of schedule is very good, as is our RPI, when comparing us with YSU and ISU-R.

http://www.realtimerpi.com/football/ncaaf_mvc_Men.html


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## Sycamore Proud

LoyalAlum said:


> According to Real Time RPI, our strength of schedule is very good, as is our RPI, when comparing us with YSU and ISU-R.
> 
> http://www.realtimerpi.com/football/ncaaf_mvc_Men.html



The 2 teams ahead of us on SOS will not qualify for the playoffs.  Not sure how or if that will help or hurt us.  We are 4th in RPI,  Not sure that is high enough to get us in.  I hope that the selection committee will be impressed with the resurgence of the program and reward it.  It would be a crime if they avoid the ISUB, ISUR, YSU problem by only taking 2 teams from the MVFC.  Of course if we don't beat the Salukis on Saturday, it's a moot point.


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## new sycamore fan

The last sentence is the key--let's table the playoff talk until after we win Saturday.  The Seniors need to play the game of their lives to finish off strong, and send the program off in far better shape than when they arrived.  They didn't get the wins against NDSU or UNI--SIU is their last chance to get a win against the teams they haven't tasted success against in the MVFC.


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## goindystate

the new GPI rankings come out later today too, so it'll be interesting to see where ISU is at in those new rankings.


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## niklz62

I was just discussing the GPI and possibilities to move up with a fellow ISU alumn coworker.  Although i think the WKU win helps us, the fact that they dont play their last game until after the playoffs are set has to hurt us.  Anyone else have thoughts on that?


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## Callmedoc

niklz62 said:


> I was just discussing the GPI and possibilities to move up with a fellow ISU alumn coworker.  Although i think the WKU win helps us, the fact that they dont play their last game until after the playoffs are set has to hurt us.  Anyone else have thoughts on that?



We are 13th and historically top 20 GPI teams with 7 wins don't get left out.


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## 4Q_iu

niklz62 said:


> I was just discussing the GPI and possibilities to move up with a fellow ISU alumn coworker.  Although i think the WKU win helps us, the fact that they dont play their last game until after the playoffs are set has to hurt us.  Anyone else have thoughts on that?



I don't think so; they're in the running for a C-USA bowl berth; they only game they've lost since we thumped them was to the # 1 team in the country.


Anyone hazard a guess as to potential playoff opponents?


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## niklz62

4Q_iu said:


> I don't think so; they're in the running for a C-USA bowl berth; they only game they've lost since we thumped them was to the # 1 team in the country.
> 
> 
> Anyone hazard a guess as to potential playoff opponents?



they lost to Arkansas St the week after


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## Callmedoc

4Q_iu said:


> I don't think so; they're in the running for a C-USA bowl berth; they only game they've lost since we thumped them was to the # 1 team in the country.
> 
> 
> Anyone hazard a guess as to potential playoff opponents?



I thick you mean sun belt


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## 4Q_iu

niklz62 said:


> they lost to Arkansas St the week after



thanks -- thought that was one of their (many) OT wins

C-USA or SunBelt, is there THAT much of a difference WRT football?


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## Callmedoc

4Q_iu said:


> thanks -- thought that was one of their (many) OT wins
> 
> C-USA or SunBelt, is there THAT much of a difference WRT football?



I will take a win over Houston over a win over wku 100 times out of 100


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## sycamore51

I think win Saturday and we're in.  Simple as that.


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## Callmedoc

sycamore51 said:


> I think win Saturday and we're in.  Simple as that.



Agreed


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## IndianaState45

College Sporting News projecting us with a home game against Tennessee Tech in round one....winner plays at Northern Iowa the next week. Let's finish off the dogs boys.


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## letsgoguins

I hope we all make it. All 5 in the MVFC are deserving!


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## IndianaState45

letsgoguins said:


> I hope we all make it. All 5 in the MVFC are deserving!



Absolutely. Some of the autobids are a joke. The MVFC is stacked with talent. Hopefully we take care of business with Southern this week. They are tough no matter what record they post.


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## 4Q_iu

Dgreenwell3 said:


> I will take a win over Houston over a win over wku 100 times out of 100



Houston's prepping for a leap from C-USA...  Could also see Sumlin getting a bigger job elsewhere


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## Callmedoc

4Q_iu said:


> Houston's prepping for a leap from C-USA...  Could also see Sumlin getting a bigger job elsewhere



Doesn't matter southern miss then. There is a clear and obvious difference between c USA (who at this point has two teams in the bcs rankings) and the sun belt.


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## 4Q_iu

Dgreenwell3 said:


> Doesn't matter southern miss then. There is a clear and obvious difference between c USA (who at this point has two teams in the bcs rankings) and the sun belt.



I feel for the non-BCS conferences; still think we'll end up with four divisions (officially) in ncaa football


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## TH_Sycamore12

I can't post the link from my phone, but Golden has a nice article on the playoff race. He provides some "what if..." scenarios on what it would take for ISU to get in and whether or not they would host a game (hint hint it relies on attendance).


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## 4Q_iu

TH_Sycamore12 said:


> I can't post the link from my phone, but Golden has a nice article on the playoff race. He provides some "what if..." scenarios on what it would take for ISU to get in and whether or not they would host a game (hint hint it relies on attendance).



I believe we'd have to 'bid' to host a 1st round game; that means guaranteed ticket sales.

Hosting would be great but may be a bridge to far this season


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## new sycamore fan

Here's the article:

http://tribstar.com/sports/x1938314337/FROM-THE-PRESS-BOX-The-great-playoff-race-is-on-for-Indiana-State-football 

All the scenarios are nice and informative, but the bottom line is that they have do do something they haven't done in a while--beat the Salukis.


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## bent20

I find it hard to believe Illinois State has actually drawn over 10,000 twice. I was at our game there and the attendance was well below that. The crowd, while kind and welcoming, also was not that into it. Everyone I met there expected them to lose.


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## niklz62

bent20 said:


> I find it hard to believe Illinois State has actually drawn over 10,000 twice. I was at our game there and the attendance was well below that. The crowd, while kind and welcoming, also was not that into it. Everyone I met there expected them to lose.



if we had 10000 more students and let them into the bars at age 19 they might stick around for the weekend more often

not advocating...


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## IndyTreeFan

niklz62 said:


> if we had 10000 more students and let them into the bars at age 19 they might stick around for the weekend more often
> 
> not advocating...



Yeah, but Normal is a dry town, or at least it was when I lived there...


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## new sycamore fan

Isn't there a big bar right behind the visitors stands at Illinois State??  It looked like one to me.


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## niklz62

if it is dry then bloomington is not.

When EIU was trying to get a home playoff game back when romo was here, I was under the impression that the NCAA wasnt looking for ticket sales per se as much as guaranteed money.  For example, if you got the home game you would be paying 10k min to the NCAA or something like that.  Its thanksgiving weekend so fans will be scarce but they didnt and dont pay much if anything anyway


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## CSapp

Neither Bloomington, nor Normal are dry. Lived there for several years and the booze is readily available.


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## TJames

*As we drove into town for the Illinois State game.....*

we passed what looked like a library building and there were a bunch of students sitting out on the front lawn. Kegs were everywhere. lol


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