College mergers/closures spiking in coming years?

[Jason Svoboda]

After reading a couple articles last week that mentioned college attendance is expected to decline well into the late 2030s for a multitude of factors, I think this is a topic we probably should start keeping an eye on with our declining attendance issues. In the coming years, we could see a bunch of mergers and closures around the country.

Closed Colleges: List, Statistics, and Major Closures | BestColleges

Dozens of public or nonprofit colleges have closed or announced closures since March 2020. Find a list of notable closures and statistics about closed colleges.

www.bestcolleges.com

 

[Jason Svoboda]

Couple interesting stories from the last couple days.

Notre Dame College in Ohio is closing.

Notre Dame College in South Euclid to close at end of this semester

Notre Dame College first opened as a women's college in South Euclid in 1922. It became a coeducational college in 2001.

www.wkyc.com

And then this one is really interesting.

Mississippi Bill Targets Three Colleges for Closure

A new cost-cutting bill proposed in the Mississippi Senate targets three state-funded higher education institutions for closure by June 20, 2028.If passed, the legislation would require the Board

www.insightintodiversity.com

We know neither Ole Miss or Mississississsississsisipppppppi State are actually being considered due to their cash cow/tax benefits to the state. But the rest are schools with D1 sports and their expenses for athletics when they really aren't serving the general public -- based on the 22.8% degree number could mean some will get the axe.

 

[bent20]

When it comes to universities of notable size, I would put Indiana State at high risk unfortunately, especially given how little support we seem to get from the state.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

When it comes to universities of notable size, I would put Indiana State at high risk unfortunately, especially given how little support we seem to get from the state.

I think we're safe for awhile but definitely need to be trying to lean out things so we don't get to that point.

 

[4Q_iu]

Couple interesting stories from the last couple days.

Notre Dame College in Ohio is closing.

Notre Dame College in South Euclid to close at end of this semester

Notre Dame College first opened as a women's college in South Euclid in 1922. It became a coeducational college in 2001.

www.wkyc.com

And then this one is really interesting.

Mississippi Bill Targets Three Colleges for Closure

A new cost-cutting bill proposed in the Mississippi Senate targets three state-funded higher education institutions for closure by June 20, 2028.If passed, the legislation would require the Board

www.insightintodiversity.com

We know neither Ole Miss or Mississississsississsisipppppppi State are actually being considered due to their cash cow/tax benefits to the state. But the rest are schools with D1 sports and their expenses for athletics when they really aren't serving the general public -- based on the 22.8% degree number could mean some will get the axe.

I'd venture the Ole Miss, Cowbell St Moo and Univ Favre Vllball will all fare well... it is surprising that Miss with a population of 35th in the nation, with an income level at 50th has not 1, not 2 but 3 HBCUs... Alcorn claims title of oldest/first land grant HBCU... but Jackson pulls twice the kids, has 3x the endowment

I'd put money on Miss Valley St being shuttered... ~2,500 students, no endowment worth metioning... it's the Medora High of Miss Pub Colleges

NDC in Ohio? at least they're being upfront with the students, staff, etc (unlike St Joseph's in Rennsselaer)

if you check google earth, two of the "partner" schools are ~5 miles from NDC... competing R.C. orders will get you three schools that close - i'd venture they (like SMWC) went co-ed just to keep the doors open

** NOTE ** per NDC, 70% of its' students are student-athletes; NDC is a Div II school in the Mtn East Conf...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...iled-merger-leaves-no-option/ar-BB1jaKKn?ocid

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...y-namesake-shows-plight-of-religious-colleges

 

[4Q_iu]

When it comes to universities of notable size, I would put Indiana State at high risk unfortunately, especially given how little support we seem to get from the state.

possible, i suppose but the targets should be:

iu east
iu northwest
iu south bend
iu southeast
iu kokomo
ind-purdue columbus
purdue northwest

and ~35% of all of the IVY Tech campuses

 

[Jason Svoboda]

BREAKING: Birmingham-Southern College to cease operations in May | Bham Now

🚨🚨🚨 DEVASTATING NEWS: BSC is closing, Boad Chair informs students, faculty, staff and alumni. #forwardever #bsc

bhamnow.com

 

[CoachShipp]

I'd keep an eye on Oakland City

 

[4Q_iu]

I'd keep an eye on Oakland City

Why? enrollment plummeting?

 

[CoachShipp]

Source (well connected) didn't give a reason...

 

[heliport]

My wife works in the higher education software industry and this is something that is concerning to those in the business. The enrollment cliff is real. You'll see the smaller private school first. Probably in order from enrollment size, but based on endowment as well. The silver lining is that if a small school like Oakland City closes, those 500+ students need to go somewhere. It's consolidation and in fact many of the schools are merging with other schools. The tough part about closing public schools (like the list above) is that political considerations come into play...and that's not an easy sell for a legislator. Think BRAC from the 90s.

Comparing to Above and Others Recently Announced

1. Birmingham Southern College (1,048 / $200-million)
2. Notre Dame College (1,522 / $9.6-million)
3. Oak Point (Ill.) (429 / ???)
4. Lincoln Christian (593 / $3.8-million)
5. Fontbonne (Missouri) (944 / $9-million)

Here's my top three (in no particular order) potential based on a combination of enrollment and endowment. Other factors come into play, but it's my opinion that the two "E's" are the biggest.

1. Bethel (1,140 / $11.4-million)
2. Calumet College of St. Joseph (522 / $4.10-million)
3. Oakland (584 / $10.3-million)

Why no Huntington, Franklin, etc.? The have very large endowments that can act as a backstop for a long time. Think 3% of $200-million vs. 3% of $10-million. Anyway, sorry to go on a typing spree, it's just that this is a frequent discussion in our household.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

My wife works in the higher education software industry and this is something that is concerning to those in the business. The enrollment cliff is real. You'll see the smaller private school first. Probably in order from enrollment size, but based on endowment as well. The silver lining is that if a small school like Oakland City closes, those 500+ students need to go somewhere. It's consolidation and in fact many of the schools are merging with other schools. The tough part about closing public schools (like the list above) is that political considerations come into play...and that's not an easy sell for a legislator. Think BRAC from the 90s.

Why no Huntington, Franklin, etc.? The have very large endowments that can act as a backstop for a long time. Think 3% of $200-million vs. 3% of $10-million. Anyway, sorry to go on a typing spree, it's just that this is a frequent discussion in our household.

Awesome info... by all means keep sharing. Agree on the consolidation point, too. Hopefully we position ourselves to capitalize on those regional closings.

If anyone follows census data, the fertility rate has been steadily dropping for decades. So between that, inflation and other factors, I'm not sure this is stopping any time soon.

Timelines Explorer - Data Commons

Data Commons aggregates and harmonizes global, open data, giving everyone the power to uncover insights with natural language questions

datacommons.org

 

[Eleven]

Awesome info... by all means keep sharing. Agree on the consolidation point, too. Hopefully we position ourselves to capitalize on those regional closings.

If anyone follows census data, the fertility rate has been steadily dropping for decades. So between that, inflation and other factors, I'm not sure this is stopping any time soon.

View attachment 2814

Timelines Explorer - Data Commons

Data Commons aggregates and harmonizes global, open data, giving everyone the power to uncover insights with natural language questions

datacommons.org

Initial alarms started sounding well before the Pandemic - it was thought that 2025 would be hardest hit. ISU was preparing for 2025 in many different ways and initiatives... but the pandemic sped it up. It's going to be a rough decade while we work through all of this...

 

[4Q_iu]

Initial alarms started sounding well before the Pandemic - it was thought that 2025 would be hardest hit. ISU was preparing for 2025 in many different ways and initiatives... but the pandemic sped it up. It's going to be a rough decade while we work through all of this...

Will this program stem the ebbing tide?

Indiana high school seniors to get letter about in-state college options. Here's why

In an effort to boost Indiana's college-going rate, all Indiana seniors will get a letter next fall detailing for what state colleges they qualify.

www.indystar.com

 

[Jason Svoboda]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783659584584143193

 

[sycamore tuff]

Covid fear and the federal government paying people to not work really helped the economy. I got one of the "stimulus checks" and I never missed a day of work. Obviously we have our best and brightest making important decisions at all levels of government

 

[4Q_iu]

Covid fear and the federal government paying people to not work really helped the economy. I got one of the "stimulus checks" and I never missed a day of work. Obviously we have our best and brightest making important decisions at all levels of government

Did you apply for that check? Did it just show up? Did you return it?

I received no check, never missed a day of work - guess your Indiana Congressional Delegation and Team Senate brought home the bacon for Hoosiers

As to that actual thread... USK opened in 2010... San Marcos CA seemed to have a number of college options; odd a private group decided to start a college in a tight market, seems a poor "small business decision"

 

[Sycamorefan96]

Did you apply for that check? Did it just show up? Did you return it?

I received no check, never missed a day of work - guess your Indiana Congressional Delegation and Team Senate brought home the bacon for Hoosiers

As to that actual thread... USK opened in 2010... San Marcos CA seemed to have a number of college options; odd a private group decided to start a college in a tight market, seems a poor "small business decision"

Everyone that filed taxes the prior year automatically received stimulus checks (there were three: $1200, $600, and $1400) that made under a certain amount annually. If you qualified and do direct deposit for your tax returns then you probably just didn't notice it (or them).

The feds were also giving people weekly checks that were laid off due to / during COVID. In many cases they were getting paid more by the feds than they would if they went out and got a different job. As a result wages went up to try to entice people to work and the end result was that the prices went up on everything to pay for it. Notice how a cheeseburger at McDonalds isn't $1 anymore and is something like $1.59. When you have to raise wages by 1.5X to get people to just show up to work you have to raise prices if you want to keep the same profits.

 

[4Q_iu]

Everyone that filed taxes the prior year automatically received stimulus checks (there were three: $1200, $600, and $1400) that made under a certain amount annually. If you qualified and do direct deposit for your tax returns then you probably just didn't notice it (or them).

The feds were also giving people weekly checks that were laid off due to / during COVID. In many cases they were getting paid more by the feds than they would if they went out and got a different job. As a result wages went up to try to entice people to work and the end result was that the prices went up on everything to pay for it. Notice how a cheeseburger at McDonalds isn't $1 anymore and is something like $1.59. When you have to raise wages by 1.5X to get people to just show up to work you have to raise prices if you want to keep the same profits.

I knew I wasn't going to receive one, I made enough to not qualify. But I also know business owners who cook their own books and received a LOT of "stimulus" money, some had to be paid back, though the feds aren't doing (or want to do) a great job in pulling back the dollars.

As to your inflation argument; we reached our current inflation levels through a variety of means; it wasn't just the ca$h pumping that occurred during COVID, it was years and years of cheap money and artificially low taxes and a HELLUVA lot of deficit spending

 

[sycamore tuff]

I think you are right except for the low taxes. If the feds could limit themselves to doing what the constitution authorized them to they would have plenty of money.