[January 11, 2025] Indiana State (9-7) vs Belmont (11-5)

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Jason Svoboda

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Indiana State Sycamores (9-7, 3-2) vs. Belmont Bruins (11-5, 3-2)

Hulman Center - Terre Haute, IN
Saturday, January 11th, 2025
Tip: 1:00pm EST
 

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Win & remain tied for 2nd.

Hope to see: 1) turnover improvement remains, 2) must improve discipline on D, 3) 75% or better 'free' throws, 4) maybe rotation begins to take form, & 5) at least 5K loud fans
 
DEFENSE ... Play some DEFENSE ...... running scoring game fun to watch but play some damned defense and win these very winnable games home or road.
 
I'm rolling with:
Teel
Alocen - short leash and probably getting Walker or Legree in near the under 16 time-out
Wagner
Doughty
Vorst - Probably subbing in Daughtry around the 16 time-out and riding him majority of the half


People are probably wondering why i wouldnt start Daughtry. 2 reasons.
1. Daughtry is playing real good right now, he is in a groove and i really don't want to mess up that groove at all. It reminds me back in the Lansing days when i believe is was a then Freshman Brenton Scott coming off the bench for the Sycamores, he provided a major spark and really helped out scoring with a 2nd unit with some subs in. I believe the same thing for Daughtry right now. I don't know if it is helping see the complexion of the game or if it's because he is fresh going against some not so fresh legs but he has been extremely efficient coming off the bench, i'm not messing with it, but he should 100% be getting starter minutes; 30+ a game.
2. We just don't have much height with JD at the 5. I think Vorst starting there provides that and a true big that can pass and be a better facilitator of the offense for Doughty, Teel, Wagner, etc. Vorst needs to get back in rhythm and stamina needs to get better. But i'd be comfortable starting him watching him go 4-6 minutes and getting Daughtry in there
 
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I like it.. HCMG stated in a recent interview that he & JD discussed starting or 6th man role. 6th man role seems to fit best for him this year, like you & others have said.
 

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It seems like JD is thriving in the 6th man role.....so don't fix what isn't broken. I'm not sold that Daughtry and Vorst can't play together. Vorst has a better perimeter shot than Daughtry and Vorst has shown he can be a good passer. I think DV just needs more run to get the rust off. I'd let those two play together some and see how it works. I think Vorst and Daughtry are about equal on interior defense, with JD having a little better foot speed to guard the 4 spot. If HCMG wants to start Harding, whatever, but If that's a hill he wants to die on, then bring Vorst in at the 5 and let JD be the 4 around the 16 minute mark. If Harding has something rolling, let him cook until he needs a breather, but Vorst needs minutes, especially after what he showed you yesterday and honestly, we aren't getting much out of Harding right now.
 
It's the day before game day and it's a busy day for me so the list of questions is short, but I still have to wonder...

Will each team score in the 90s in regulation?
Will either team top the 100 mark?
Could we please see Vorst play more minutes than Harding?
Could we please see LeGree play with a little-less reckless abandonment?
Will we see a better 3pt% than 29.2?
Will we see a better FT% than 58.1?
How about even fewer turnovers than the improved 12 that we had vs Valpo?
How raucous will the Forest be?
 
Our three-point shooting will be something to watch in this game. Belmont gives up a high percentage to opposing teams, but during conference play we've been rather pedestrian from behind the arc. With this being a home game and our opponent struggling to defend the three, I'm hopeful we can be effective from distance.
 
It seems like JD is thriving in the 6th man role.....so don't fix what isn't broken. I'm not sold that Daughtry and Vorst can't play together. Vorst has a better perimeter shot than Daughtry and Vorst has shown he can be a good passer. I think DV just needs more run to get the rust off. I'd let those two play together some and see how it works. I think Vorst and Daughtry are about equal on interior defense, with JD having a little better foot speed to guard the 4 spot. If HCMG wants to start Harding, whatever, but If that's a hill he wants to die on, then bring Vorst in at the 5 and let JD be the 4 around the 16 minute mark. If Harding has something rolling, let him cook until he needs a breather, but Vorst needs minutes, especially after what he showed you yesterday and honestly, we aren't getting much out of Harding right now.

The other reason it works is JD is more likely to get the 2nd "big" for most teams, which is either going to be a big stiff or shorter guy like him. If it's the first, he has the speed/agility advantage and the 2nd, he is able to bang on those dudes.

I'm definitely good with him being the focal point of the 2nd unit offense. What sucks is we seem to lose shooters when he does come in and that sometimes makes spacing not work well for him. If guys are hitting though and he can get some space, I think that's when we've seen him rolling to the rim and throwing down monsters because of that advantage.

Wish we had a 2nd unit Camp.
 
The other reason it works is JD is more likely to get the 2nd "big" for most teams, which is either going to be a big stiff or shorter guy like him. If it's the first, he has the speed/agility advantage and the 2nd, he is able to bang on those dudes.

I'm definitely good with him being the focal point of the 2nd unit offense. What sucks is we seem to lose shooters when he does come in and that sometimes makes spacing not work well for him. If guys are hitting though and he can get some space, I think that's when we've seen him rolling to the rim and throwing down monsters because of that advantage.

Wish we had a 2nd unit Camp.
Man, that's a solid point. Do you think Walker could be that 2nd unit Camp? Walker can hit big shots, he's already shown that and he plays decent defense from what I have seen.
 

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The other reason it works is JD is more likely to get the 2nd "big" for most teams, which is either going to be a big stiff or shorter guy like him. If it's the first, he has the speed/agility advantage and the 2nd, he is able to bang on those dudes.

I'm definitely good with him being the focal point of the 2nd unit offense. What sucks is we seem to lose shooters when he does come in and that sometimes makes spacing not work well for him. If guys are hitting though and he can get some space, I think that's when we've seen him rolling to the rim and throwing down monsters because of that advantage.

Wish we had a 2nd unit Camp.
Do we have a second unit Camp in Walker??? I’m asking the question as I have not seen him but a couple minute so I don’t know that answer. What is the opinion on that???? The other question is why has Cook been in street clothes the last 3 games. I don’t want him in there I was just curious.
 
Summers is shooting 43% from 3 for the season; Walker is shooting 45.5%. I do agree with your points.
Wagner is a respectable 36.7%

Both Legree & Daughtry are well below those figures.

I did some digging in the box score for the Valpo game. These are the Point/Minute scored when a particular player is on the floor: With 95 points in 45 minutes, the average = 2.11 pts/min (Just a snapshot; a look over last 4 games would be more valuable I suppose).

Data do support that the offense is less productive with Harding or Vorst on the floor in this game.
The offense seems similarly effective when Summers, Alocen and Wagner are on the floor. When I looked at Evansville, Walker was above average production also, but Summers and Doughty less so.


Player........................Points/min.............Points scored by ISU.............Minutes by Player vs Valpo
Daughtry.......................2.27......................................51........................................22.5
Doughty.........................2.23....................................67.........................................30
Teel....................................2.14....................................91........................................42.5
Summers........................2.13.....................................17........................................8
Alocen.............................2.11.....................................39........................................18.5
Wagner...........................2.09....................................68..........................................32.5
Legree..............................2.04...................................52...........................................25.5
Harding...........................2.00....................................24...........................................12
Vorst...................................1.84..................................20............................................11
Walker only played less than one minute.

Since Walker played so little at Valpo, I went back to Evansville for Wagner, Walker, Summers and Alocen
Team Average was 1.65 points/minute in the 66-62 win.

Player........................Points/min.............Points scored by ISU.............Minutes by Player vs Evansville
Walker.........................1.7.....................................17..................................................10
Wagner.......................1.78...................................49..................................................27.5
Alocen...........................1.70................................51..................................................30
Summers......................1.31................................17...................................................13
Doughty.......................1.43.................................23...................................................16
 
I forgot to include Aaron Gray. My mistake.

Team Average was 1.65 points/minute in the 66-62 win.
Player........................Points/min.............Points scored by ISU.............Minutes by Player vs Evansville
Gray...........................1.85............................................26..................................................14

Team Average 2.11
Player........................Points/min.............Points scored by ISU.............Minutes by Player vs Valpo
Gray.............................2.00...........................................46.................................................23
 
Man, that's a solid point. Do you think Walker could be that 2nd unit Camp? Walker can hit big shots, he's already shown that and he plays decent defense from what I have seen.

I think he could be. I really love his shooting form -- he gets good lift and it just looks textbook coming off his hands.
 

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Won’t be able to make it up from Louisville
for the game tomorrow due to weather. Have 4
tickets available for free. Text me at
502-551-9904 if interested. First come
first serve.
 
Me & two friends not coming up for this one either due to heavy snow already on ground. Sure hate to miss it but will be watching on ESPN+.
 
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