Kentucky Derby 135...

[SycamoreStateofMind]

4 days and counting until the 135th running of the KD. Any of you big fans? Any of you ever been? Let see if we can pick the winner..

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information

Poll.
Listed by, Horse - Trainer

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

Hopefully you all participate...

Ha. If not I will have a competition against myself. Here is what I am looking at

Win: Hold Me Back ( The stretch runner better be running to get to the wire i'd say, should have good numbers something like 20-1)

Place: I Want Revenge (Winner of the Wood Memorial broke dead last out of the gate and still won - pretty game horse should be a top choice 6-1)

Show: Quality Road (Tough horse that can throw down the gauntlet set the track record to win the Florida derby)

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

No One Likes the Derby? Really?

I am amazed that this has gotten no play what so ever... Anyways odds and post positions were posted and here they are.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/news/story?id=4111244

Grade 1, $2 million Kentucky Derby

Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen Stewart Elliott 30-1
2 Musket Man Derek Ryan Eibar Coa 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty John Velazquez 30-1
4 Advice Todd Pletcher Rene Douglas 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Bill Mott Kent Desormeaux 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 5-1
7 Papa Clem Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Bennie Woolley Calvin Borel 50-1
9 Join in the Dance Todd Pletcher Chris DeCarlo 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor Alan Garcia 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer Mike Smith 20-1
12 General Quarters Tom McCarthy Julien Leparoux 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins Joe Talamo 3-1
14 Atomic Rain Kelly Breen Joe Bravo 50-1
15 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez 4-1
17 Summer Bird Tim Ice Chris Rosier 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide Nick Zito Shaun Bridgmohan 50-1
19 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor Ramon Dominguez 15-1
20 Flying Private D. Wayne Lukas Robby Albarado 50-1

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

My choice for show is officially off the Derby trail as first reported on Monday by the AP he has a cracked hoof. That's to bad because this was a solid horse that would have had an impact on this race...

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

I got another vote! Yes thank you who ever voted! We shall have a battle in a few days! lol

 

[Braveheart]

Morgan I think you have as much knowledge adout horses as you do about basketball.

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

Morgan I think you have as much knowledge adout horses as you do about basketball.

Thats rather bold of you to call me out in your first post ever... None the less you did it on a thread talking about horse racing. You should stop talking out of your back side now.. :naughty:

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

No more votes.... Ok Ok I will go ahead and tell you why Hold Me Back is going to win. I just want proof that I was on top of this when it happens.

This horse is trained and bread for the Mile and a Qtr. the Derby should be a perfect distance for Hold Me Back. This horse also has great closing speed which usually fairs well for Derby horses. Ran the final three furlongs in an electric 36.20 to win the Lane's End going from last to first. IF this hourse handles the dirt (could be sloppy tomorrow) I think I picked the winner... We will see! Going to go off at around 12-1 wont be any worse than that I don't suspect. This horse is not flying under the radar as much as I had hoped. Bill Mott has never had a Derby winner, I suspect this is his best chance in 8 trys.

 

[IndyTreeFan]

Mine That Bird. I have no reason for that whatsoever, other than the name caught my eye. I tend to wager that way on horses. Could be why I've never won much...:imslow:

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

I like that theory as well... I usually go through the Derby field and pick a name out and then their are things I look for. If the first horse has everything I am looking for then I go with that horse.

The last 2 years I have made some pretty rough picks. So it's not that I have the exact formula for success. But before that I was something like 5 for 5 in the money. However I have never picked the winner.

My only rule is not to pick a horse for the win that will be a favorite. I try to pick middle of the road horses. I NEVER pick a favorite. I make sure to pick a horse early that I know will not be any better than 15-1 like Hold Me Back whom I thought would open around 20-1.

Their are also certain Trainers I tend to pick and certain Jockeys that I like... If those trainers or jockeys are in the race then I tend to lean toward those horses. First thing I take into consideration is record. (I try to pick a horse that is under the radar that has not finished out of the money 1-3 in any of it's starts). I also look to see what races the horses have won and who they beat. For instance the winner of the Wood Memorial is usually going to have pretty good odds and is a safe bet (I Want Revenge) winner of the Wood.

The surface is also a big consideration when looking at Derby horses. Many of them have never run on dirt before. Some horses don't handle the dirt at Churchill very well.

Lastly I like a horse that is going to stalk the leaders or come from behind. I do not want a horse that is going to set the pace. They are automatically eliminated. Of course that does not stop a Jockey and Trainer from going into the KD with a different strategy and leading early on. But that's usually not the case. If they are a closer then they are going to sit anywhere from 6th to 20th.

This is just how I do it... lol I'm not a professional or anything like that. Duh! But their is a method to my maddness. I am a huge Triple Crown fan. Really enjoy the sport!

 

[IndyTreeFan]

Mine That Bird. I have no reason for that whatsoever, other than the name caught my eye. I tend to wager that way on horses. Could be why I've never won much...:imslow:

For those of you who are interested, you can sign up for lessons any time now in picking horse races. I'm obviously better than I thought I was!!! Seriously, I never had a doubt that Mine That Bird would win. Knew it all the way...:wordyo:

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

For those of you who are interested, you can sign up for lessons any time now in picking horse races. I'm obviously better than I thought I was!!! Seriously, I never had a doubt that Mine That Bird would win. Knew it all the way...:wordyo:

That's good stuff man! That's what makes the Derby so fun? So many times the favorite does not win. Not to mention Mine That Bird won going away. How cool is it that the trainer of that horse had never fielded a horse in the Derby he drove the horse to Kentucky 13 hours from Wyoming in the back of a trailer. (Most horses fly in). lol What a great story here! Hopefully he can win the Preakness... I am sure he will get decent odds.

However this horse was not supposed to win. A monumental upset for sure!

Congrats ITF! You are the man!