RealTimeRPI Accuracy

[Jason Svoboda]

Just referenced this in a couple threads, but their site has us finishing 18-10 and going 11-7 in MVC play. Since their site is usually referenced quite frequently by analysts and writers, going to use this thread to see how accurate their predictions are, how they change during the course of conference play, etc.

Predictions as of 12/31:

01-01 Loyola (IL) 4-7 (0-0) 313 84-64 W
01-04 at Evansville 5-6 (0-0) 201 75-76 L
01-08 at Drake 8-3 (0-0) 62 70-79 L
01-11 Bradley 5-8 (0-0) 245 84-67 W
01-15 Missouri State 9-2 (0-0) 79 83-70 W
01-18 at Wichita St. 12-0 (0-0) 12 62-82 L
01-22 at Loyola (IL) 4-7 (0-0) 313 76-72 W
01-25 Illinois St. 6-5 (0-0) 144 83-71 W
01-29 at Southern Ill. 3-9 (0-0) 330 76-70 W
02-01 at Northern Iowa 5-6 (0-0) 91 74-79 L
02-05 Wichita St. 12-0 (0-0) 12 70-73 L
02-09 Drake 8-3 (0-0) 62 79-71 W
02-12 at Bradley 5-8 (0-0) 245 76-75 W
02-15 Southern Ill. 3-9 (0-0) 330 85-62 W
02-19 Evansville 5-6 (0-0) 201 83-68 W
02-22 at Missouri State 9-2 (0-0) 79 75-78 L
02-26 at Illinois St. 6-5 (0-0) 144 74-79 L
03-01 Northern Iowa 5-6 (0-0) 91 83-71 W

 

[TreeTop]

11-7

Not thinking too highly of us.

Or...

I'm thinking too highly of us.

 

[BudDawgII]

11-7

Not thinking too highly of us.

Or...

I'm thinking too highly of us.

Like you I'm surprised with some of their loss predictions. Know the road is tough but this is a mature--seasoned talented team!
If we don't do better than their predictions---well its going to get nasty on here!

 

[BrokerZ]

We rarely won on the road last year with practically the same team, so it's a rather safe assumption that history will repeat itself. I hope I'm wrong, but if you're being honest with yourself the predictions make sense based on the evidence available.

 

[Sycamore Proud]

Like you I'm surprised with some of their loss predictions. Know the road is tough but this is a mature--seasoned talented team!
If we don't do better than their predictions---well its going to get nasty on here!

Tomorrow's game will be a good indicator of fact or fiction on this statement. We need a strong start to the Valley season. A close game tomorrow will not be an indicator of good things to come.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

Tomorrow's game will be a good indicator of fact or fiction on this statement. We need a strong start to the Valley season. A close game tomorrow will not be an indicator of good things to come.

I agree with this. No disrespect to Loyola, but they are not deep. They have some talent, but those guys are high mileage guys on the season already -- like 3-4 of them average over 30 minutes per game and two were at like 34-35 if I'm not mistaken. I don't have the stats in front of me, but another thing I remember seeing is how little they get to the foul line. Our game plan should involve a LOT of going to the basket to try and get some of their top players into foul trouble. If we can get one or two into foul trouble, they'll be in serious trouble.

If this team plays like we did against Belmont and that Jake Odum shows up, we can win by 15 points.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

Predictions as of 12/31:

01-01 Loyola (IL) 4-7 (0-0) 313 84-64 W
01-04 at Evansville 5-6 (0-0) 201 75-76 L
01-08 at Drake 8-3 (0-0) 62 70-79 L
01-11 Bradley 5-8 (0-0) 245 84-67 W
01-15 Missouri State 9-2 (0-0) 79 83-70 W
01-18 at Wichita St. 12-0 (0-0) 12 62-82 L
01-22 at Loyola (IL) 4-7 (0-0) 313 76-72 W
01-25 Illinois St. 6-5 (0-0) 144 83-71 W
01-29 at Southern Ill. 3-9 (0-0) 330 76-70 W
02-01 at Northern Iowa 5-6 (0-0) 91 74-79 L
02-05 Wichita St. 12-0 (0-0) 12 70-73 L
02-09 Drake 8-3 (0-0) 62 79-71 W
02-12 at Bradley 5-8 (0-0) 245 76-75 W
02-15 Southern Ill. 3-9 (0-0) 330 85-62 W
02-19 Evansville 5-6 (0-0) 201 83-68 W
02-22 at Missouri State 9-2 (0-0) 79 75-78 L
02-26 at Illinois St. 6-5 (0-0) 144 74-79 L
03-01 Northern Iowa 5-6 (0-0) 91 83-71 W

01-01 Loyola (IL) 4-7 (0-0) 313 84-64 W - ACTUAL 70-58 W
01-04 at Evansville 5-7 (0-1) 207 74-75 L
01-08 at Drake 9-3 (1-0) 62 71-79 L
01-11 Bradley 5-9 (0-1) 262 83-66 W
01-15 Missouri State 9-2 (0-0) 82 84-69 W
01-18 at Wichita St. 12-0 (0-0) 12 62-81 L
01-22 at Loyola (IL) 4-8 (0-1) 311 75-71 W
01-25 Illinois St. 6-5 (0-0) 148 82-70 W
01-29 at Southern Ill. 3-9 (0-0) 331 75-70 W
02-01 at Northern Iowa 6-6 (1-0) 88 74-79 L
02-05 Wichita St. 12-0 (0-0) 12 70-73 L
02-09 Drake 9-3 (1-0) 62 79-71 W
02-12 at Bradley 5-9 (0-1) 262 75-74 W
02-15 Southern Ill. 3-9 (0-0) 331 83-61 W
02-19 Evansville 5-7 (0-1) 207 83-67 W
02-22 at Missouri State 9-2 (0-0) 82 76-77 L
02-26 at Illinois St. 6-5 (0-0) 148 74-78 L
03-01 Northern Iowa 6-6 (1-0) 88 82-71 W

 

[Gotta Hav]

We rarely won on the road last year with practically the same team, so it's a rather safe assumption that history will repeat itself. I hope I'm wrong, but if you're being honest with yourself the predictions make sense based on the evidence available.

I said the same thing last year, when the season was over....and the next season...this year....was only 8 months away. Not much can change, in just an 8 month period of time. Like you BZ, I hope I'm WRONG!!!!

 

[Jason Svoboda]

01-08 at Drake 9-3 (1-0) 62 71-79 L
01-11 Bradley 5-9 (0-1) 262 83-66 W
01-15 Missouri State 9-2 (0-0) 82 84-69 W
01-18 at Wichita St. 12-0 (0-0) 12 62-81 L
01-22 at Loyola (IL) 4-8 (0-1) 311 75-71 W
01-25 Illinois St. 6-5 (0-0) 148 82-70 W
01-29 at Southern Ill. 3-9 (0-0) 331 75-70 W
02-01 at Northern Iowa 6-6 (1-0) 88 74-79 L
02-05 Wichita St. 12-0 (0-0) 12 70-73 L
02-09 Drake 9-3 (1-0) 62 79-71 W
02-12 at Bradley 5-9 (0-1) 262 75-74 W
02-15 Southern Ill. 3-9 (0-0) 331 83-61 W
02-19 Evansville 5-7 (0-1) 207 83-67 W
02-22 at Missouri State 9-2 (0-0) 82 76-77 L
02-26 at Illinois St. 6-5 (0-0) 148 74-78 L
03-01 Northern Iowa 6-6 (1-0) 88 82-71 W

01-01 Loyola (IL) 4-7 (0-0) 313 84-64 W - ACTUAL 70-58 W
01-04 at Evansville 5-7 (0-1) 207 74-75 L - ACTUAL 81-62 W
01-08 at Drake 9-4 (1-1) 89 74-80 L
01-11 Bradley 6-9 (1-1) 245 83-65 W
01-15 Missouri State 10-3 (1-1) 87 84-68 W
01-18 at Wichita St. 14-0 (2-0) 13 61-79 L
01-22 at Loyola (IL) 5-8 (1-1) 279 75-71 W
01-25 Illinois St. 7-6 (1-1) 134 83-69 W
01-29 at Southern Ill. 3-11 (0-2) 303 75-68 W
02-01 at Northern Iowa 6-7 (1-1) 69 74-78 L
02-05 Wichita St. 14-0 (2-0) 13 69-71 L
02-09 Drake 9-4 (1-1) 89 83-72 W
02-12 at Bradley 6-9 (1-1) 245 75-74 W
02-15 Southern Ill. 3-11 (0-2) 303 83-60 W
02-19 Evansville 5-8 (0-2) 220 83-65 W
02-22 at Missouri State 10-3 (1-1) 87 76-77 L
02-26 at Illinois St. 7-6 (1-1) 134 74-77 L
03-01 Northern Iowa 6-7 (1-1) 69 83-70 W

RealTimeRPI Record Prediction: 1-1
Actual Record: 2-0