Things are getting interesting over in ACC land. Clemson, FSU, and North Carolina would be very hot targets for the SEC and B1G. Apparently VT, UVA, Miami, and NCST think they may be in the mix too.
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The beginning of the end for the ACC?
- Thread starter Sycamorefan96
- Start date
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just a matter of time before the big boys split off into four 16 team conferences and just have there own division.
Or two 32-team conferences... with two 16-team divisions in each... with two 8-team sub conferences...
I don't know how the money works. It sounds great in theory, but the big money maker is March Madness. That dies. If that dies, I think college athletics dies.
I don't give a fuck about college football. It's even worse than college hoops since really only 4-8 teams have a chance to win a title in a given year. Since that money is made outside of the NCAA, they are kinda insulated from each other pretty well. That silo would go away. Also, if they killed March Madness, I'd assume media rights deals would decrease, not increase.
The ACC at best is $17M p/school behind the Big Ten and that gap will probably continue to widen. Even the SEC is $9M behind. I was surprised the Big 12 was in third, but OUT has left quite yet. The Pac 12 is really lousy compared to the other P5's, and that's with USCLA still in their league.
Obviously the Big Ten and SEC will continue to pull away from the others after OUT and USCLA join in 2024.
It is going to be interesting. Media rights have been declining, not growing due to cable TV subscribers continuing to plummet. Because of that, advertising money has been declining for nearly a decade. Some of these conferences think they are more important than they actually are.
ESPN/Disney is also in financial trouble and their streaming service efforts have been disastrous. Also, sports aren't really good partners for streaming services because they don't get to retain games so it's live or nothing.
The NCAA would almost be better of reigning conferences in and trying to offer their own streaming service thus cutting out the middlemen. They could easily get $20-30/mo if you knew you'd get any game live in any sport. Then, they could work out that whole revenue splitting model that is coming.
Problem is, the NCAA IMO needs to start capping D1 membership. Continuing to let schools jump up where you continually have to split the pie out even more makes no sense. It would even make sense to have some sort of contraction. We're up to 363 D1 schools and I believe there were like 330 back in the early to mid 2000s.
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The NCAA should've capped conferences off at 10 or 12 schools at least a decade ago, but they are effectively a useless operation these days. (If a league had over 10 or 12 they could be grandfathered in, but if a school left the league wouldn't be allowed to replace them.) The reason there are so many D1 schools now is because of the chain reaction to the Power Leagues (and others) expanding. Eventually it trickles all the way down to the low major leagues that will go extinct unless they call up D2 schools.
32 Conferences X 10 schools each= 320 schools
32 X 12 schools each= 384
32X14 each= 448
32X16 each= 512
As for the TV contracts. I wonder if the media corporations prefer just giving huge deals to the B1G and SEC, and then lesser deals to everyone else at this point. Only handing out huge deals to 2 leagues might save them money as opposed to handing out big deals to 5 leagues.
The Big XII got lucky because I'm pretty sure they got their current deal before Texas and Oklahoma announced that they were leaving. The Pac 12 on the other hand got caught flatfooted and are now trying to get a good deal when everyone knows that their two most valuable teams are on the way out.
In my view I think the Pac "10" will stick together for now and not add anyone. I think adding SDSU would just dilute what each remaining school will get on their new TV deal. After about 5+ years of working USC and UCLA into the Big Ten, I think you'll see the Big Ten poach at least Oregon and Washington, which should open the door for an extremely huge package after their current deal expires in 2030.
As for the ACC they are stuck in a TV deal that lasts until 2036. So if they think they are getting left behind now, just wait until 2030 when they are really getting left in the dust. That's why Clemson, Florida State, UNC, and several others are starting to make some noise now. I think within the next 5-7 years (maybe even sooner) Clemson, FSU, and UNC will bolt no matter what they have to pay to get out of the GOR. I'm not sure they can afford not to.
If I'm a media corporation, I'm not giving the B1G/SEC any money. That's what I'm saying. The value isn't there.
These guys got lucky when we have a zero interest rate environment and all of these clowns were spending money hand over fist. Now we're on the cusp of serious financial disaster and these media companies are on the brink of insolvency. Each one of them are losing billions yearly and there will likely be some sort of consolidation soon. Many of them have drastically cut back on creating original content, have not renewed licensed content, etc. Taking it a step further, consumers are getting subscription fatigue as it's become as bad as cable packages were. Once the US hits a full blown recession and consumers have to cut back on luxuries -- which having 3-4 streaming services on top of your monthly Internet is, they're really going to be fucked.
The NFL is the live sports cash cow and they renewed precisely at the right time (peak COVID) so many of those media companies that licensed rights there massively overpaid (again, zero interest rate environment when they could take on cheap debt) so they're locked into those massive deals. So where does that leave college sports? Stuck. Especially since these conferences go out and sign their own deals -- they lack collective bargaining. This is also why I said if they fuck up March Madness, the whole system fails since that is the singular revenue stream for the NCAA that funds damn near everything.
I think people would be shocked if they actually opened the NCAA financial report and see how much money they hand out to all of these schools, athletes and even their families through the hundreds of programs they have.
These guys got lucky when we have a zero interest rate environment and all of these clowns were spending money hand over fist. Now we're on the cusp of serious financial disaster and these media companies are on the brink of insolvency. Each one of them are losing billions yearly and there will likely be some sort of consolidation soon. Many of them have drastically cut back on creating original content, have not renewed licensed content, etc. Taking it a step further, consumers are getting subscription fatigue as it's become as bad as cable packages were. Once the US hits a full blown recession and consumers have to cut back on luxuries -- which having 3-4 streaming services on top of your monthly Internet is, they're really going to be fucked.
The NFL is the live sports cash cow and they renewed precisely at the right time (peak COVID) so many of those media companies that licensed rights there massively overpaid (again, zero interest rate environment when they could take on cheap debt) so they're locked into those massive deals. So where does that leave college sports? Stuck. Especially since these conferences go out and sign their own deals -- they lack collective bargaining. This is also why I said if they fuck up March Madness, the whole system fails since that is the singular revenue stream for the NCAA that funds damn near everything.
I think people would be shocked if they actually opened the NCAA financial report and see how much money they hand out to all of these schools, athletes and even their families through the hundreds of programs they have.
This may come across as insensitive, but if a recession can help get inflation back down close to the 2% normal range then I'm kind of all for it at this point. I think that is probably the Federal Reserve's goal at this point anyways. It's just insane how expensive everything has gotten. I'm still contributing very heavily to my 401K and IRA since I can only contribute so much annually, but I pulled all my money from my individual account earlier this year. If and likely when we hit a recession, I'll probably start investing in an individual account again.
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www.reuters.com
As for the streaming stuff, I find it hard to believe how much money people spend on Cable / Satellite TV and online subscriptions in the first place. Heck I was too cheap to spend the $10 a month on ESPN+ this year and I will never spend a single penny on cable TV. If we lose the free over the air local stations in Terre Haute then I'll just be out of luck I guess.
Fed needs a recession to win inflation fight, study shows
The Federal Reserve will be hard-pressed to lower inflation without a significant blow to U.S. economic activity and a sharp rise in unemployment, and even then may miss its 2% inflation target for years to come, a group of top economists concluded after a review of central banks' past inflation...
www.reuters.com
As for the streaming stuff, I find it hard to believe how much money people spend on Cable / Satellite TV and online subscriptions in the first place. Heck I was too cheap to spend the $10 a month on ESPN+ this year and I will never spend a single penny on cable TV. If we lose the free over the air local stations in Terre Haute then I'll just be out of luck I guess.
Absolutely! You pretty much nailed it.
This may come across as insensitive, but if a recession can help get inflation back down close to the 2% normal range then I'm kind of all for it at this point. I think that is probably the Federal Reserve's goal at this point anyways. It's just insane how expensive everything has gotten. I'm still contributing very heavily to my 401K and IRA since I can only contribute so much annually, but I pulled all my money from my individual account earlier this year. If and likely when we hit a recession, I'll probably start investing in an individual account again.
Fed needs a recession to win inflation fight, study shows
The Federal Reserve will be hard-pressed to lower inflation without a significant blow to U.S. economic activity and a sharp rise in unemployment, and even then may miss its 2% inflation target for years to come, a group of top economists concluded after a review of central banks' past inflation...
As for the streaming stuff, I find it hard to believe how much money people spend on Cable / Satellite TV and online subscriptions in the first place. Heck I was too cheap to spend the $10 a month on ESPN+ this year and I will never spend a single penny on cable TV. If we lose the free over the air local stations in Terre Haute then I'll just be out of luck I guess.
The Fed and politicians have broken our money and financial system. That 2% is a giant crock of horseshit. The only way we see that again is if they keep doing mathematical mental gymnastics like they've been doing with the CPI numbers.
We've had more significant banks fail in the last couple months than we did the entire 2008 financial crisis. Like I mentioned in my previous post, the whole zero interest rate environment is likely going to go down as the biggest policy blunder of my lifetime. They printed a ton of money while holding rates at zero, then all of these banks bought up US Government bonds and then the US Government turned around and swept their fucking leg by raising rates so all of those bonds were immediately underwater. Considering banks are fractional reserve institutions (funny word for legalized Ponzi schemes), once depositors came calling for their money, they were insolvent as they had to sell bonds which turned their unrealized losses into realized losses.
There has been so much financial system fuckery going on -- like allowing JP Morgan to then buy those distressed bank assets for pennies on the dollar when they are over all regulatory rules for the amount any one bank is allowed -- the ole too big too fail shit. Also, the fact that the G has stated that they would honor deposits but the FDIC insurance fund has a laughable amount compared to total bank deposits. It's a house of cards and these chucklefucks have no idea how to fix it.
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I think sitting around and watching TV is about the only thing most Americans do these days. That's probably why over 70% of the country is overweight or obese. I truck drive, but I often times go to parks to play ball and more times than not I'm the only one there.
Not trying to change the subject to politics, economics, etc. But you would be surprised just how many people are struggling financially in the past few years. I'm in "in home sales", basically I meet with people with home issues and within an hour or 2 I'm giving them a 2k-100k price tag to make their issues go away. It's a really interesting position; as you meet these people in their own homes, next to their own dogs, surrounded by their biggest issues, they really open up on why they want to fix their home. Maybe they don't want their home to fall apart. Maybe it's the home they grew up in and they promised their parents they'd take care of it. Maybe they are trying to sell the home after a messy divorce and moving across country. Or maybe they just inherited money and finally are able to fix things that have been causing stress for 30 years. You see it all, and you never know what you are going to find when you knock on the door.
But majority of the time it's a struggle for normal Americans to pay for these projects. I can't count the number of times I've been with a newly-wed couple in their first home that is probably worth 80k, but they paid 200k, at 6% interest, with a mortgage of $1,400 a month, their bank account has $500 in it, and they have 40k worth of work so their house isn't a disaster. it's sad. How are they suppose to get ahead? But it's not just young couples, it's the whole spectrum of ages, occupations, etc. of just disasters financially. Some of it is self inflicted and just poor money decisions; when you don't have 4k in the bank but you have an 80k Cadillac in the driveway with a $700 monthly payment you need to rethink some things. But it just comes down to MANY Americans don't have money to go to the movies, live entertainment, boating, golfing, etc. So a lot of people plant themselves in front of a TV and call it a night; cheap entertainment with no effort. Something has to give or this next generation is F*****. I'm thankful I'm not 5 years younger and I was able to make a lot of big "life purchases" before prices went insane. If you made 40k a year in 1970 that would be equivalent to making 300k in 2023; just think about that.
But majority of the time it's a struggle for normal Americans to pay for these projects. I can't count the number of times I've been with a newly-wed couple in their first home that is probably worth 80k, but they paid 200k, at 6% interest, with a mortgage of $1,400 a month, their bank account has $500 in it, and they have 40k worth of work so their house isn't a disaster. it's sad. How are they suppose to get ahead? But it's not just young couples, it's the whole spectrum of ages, occupations, etc. of just disasters financially. Some of it is self inflicted and just poor money decisions; when you don't have 4k in the bank but you have an 80k Cadillac in the driveway with a $700 monthly payment you need to rethink some things. But it just comes down to MANY Americans don't have money to go to the movies, live entertainment, boating, golfing, etc. So a lot of people plant themselves in front of a TV and call it a night; cheap entertainment with no effort. Something has to give or this next generation is F*****. I'm thankful I'm not 5 years younger and I was able to make a lot of big "life purchases" before prices went insane. If you made 40k a year in 1970 that would be equivalent to making 300k in 2023; just think about that.
That was signed at the tail end of Summer 2022 when they were damn near still giving away free money.
sycamore tuff
The Wade Level
Dave Ramsey or some similar program should be mandatory class for high school graduation. If ISU required it for graduation, it would set in motion the basic financial skills for it's graduates. The return would be many more wealthy grads donating back.
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Agree - but I learned the same "program" as Ramsey's from my mother & my grandfather... but yes, people need to learn some pretty basic theories - Ramsey's or otherwise.