Thoughts as MVC play starts

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ISUCC

ISUCC

The Odum Level
Moderator
well, one more home game prior to MVC play beginning on January 1st. I've followed all the MVC teams so far and this is how I could see our season going.

games we "should" win

Loyola x 2
SIU x 2
UE x 2
Bradley x 2
vs. ILS
vs. Drake
vs. UNI
vs. MSU

expected losses

WSU x 2 (we're not even close to their league right now).
@ Drake (we rarely play well at Drake, so expect a loss here)
@ UNI (UNI isn't terrible)
@ Missouri State (see @ Drake)
@ ILS (they are much improved as of 12/22/13)

losses I would consider "INEXPLICABLE" but could happen because that's just how we play:

ANY loss to Bradley, Illinois State (in Terre Haute), SIU, Loyola, & Evansville, these 5 teams are absolutely DREADFUL this year and I honestly think the 4 Illinois schools will all be playing in St. Louis on Thursday.

if this pans out and we finish 12-6 in MVC play this could get us a bid into the CIT or CBI post season tourney (where we will go 1-1). We blew our chances already for any hope of an NCAA at-large bid or NIT bid. 13-5 could get us a 2 seed in the MVC tourney, but I fully expect some inexplicable losses from this team and I will not be shocked if we wind up 4th in the MVC come tourney time.

what do you all think???
 
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13-5 sounds about right. I think we will lose at Evansville and beat Wichita State at home.
 
meistro said:
13-5 sounds about right. I think we will lose at Evansville and beat Wichita State at home.
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only way we beat WSU in TH is if they come in with some players out for injuries, I've seen WSU play on the road, coming into a half full Hulman Center is not going to rattle WSU in any way, shape, or form.

I could totally see us losing @ UE too, thus being one of our "inexplicable" losses I expect we'll see.
 
I find little to disagree with in your projections. I wouldn't be surprised to lose 1 of the X2 teams you listed--most likely at Evansville. Why that one? No real reason I can explain--more like a gut feeling from watching this series for 50 years. It may also be difficult to sweep all games from locations in our neighboring state to the west. Contrary to all common sense and logic, I feel we may upset the Shockers in the Haute.
 
IF we go 13-5 in the MVC, then the only thing I'd disagree with is that we'd go to the NIT.

And IF we don't get invited to the NIT, then I hope we don't accept an invite to any other tourney.
 
With this senior laden team (even a couple of 5th year seniors) either win your way to the Big Dance or go home. Nobody cares about the Mickey Mouse tournaments and the excuse of "building for next year" does not apply in this case.
 

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ISUCC said:
only way we beat WSU in TH is if they come in with some players out for injuries, I've seen WSU play on the road, coming into a half full Hulman Center is not going to rattle WSU in any way, shape, or form.

I could totally see us losing @ UE too, thus being one of our "inexplicable" losses I expect we'll see.
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Except that other teams, including WSU, also inexplicably play like shit on occasion. We beat them last year and they were a Final Four team. I'm not convinced we won't get a look for the NIT, especially if we beat Belmont, do somehow go 13-5 and win at least one game in St. Louis. That would put us at 23-9, I believe.
 
bent20 said:
Except that other teams, including WSU, also inexplicably play like shit on occasion. We beat them last year and they were a Final Four team. I'm not convinced we won't get a look for the NIT, especially if we beat Belmont, do somehow go 13-5 and win at least one game in St. Louis. That would put us at 23-9, I believe.
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If this team --with their experience and talent--can't make the NIT then they need an ass kicking and coaching changes!! With that said---I feel very positive that they will make the NIT in 2014!:yesfistpump:
 
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Quabachi said:
The CIT and CBI? No thank you. Unless we finish a previous season with 11 wins and then improve the next season to 17 wins. Like in 2010.
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It doesn't matter how you or I perceive the prestige of those tournaments. If that's the case, why in the hell would we play in the Great Alaska Shootout? That was a MTE for lower level mid-majors and even had a D2 participant in it. There are only two reasons a postseason invite should be declined IMO. One would be some sort of tragedy or scandal within the program and the second would be the cost -- like if we are selected to be a first round host and the cost is just too great for the program to eat.
 

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Quabachi said:
The CIT and CBI? No thank you. Unless we finish a previous season with 11 wins and then improve the next season to 17 wins. Like in 2010.
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I agree and/or unless its been awhile since your team has been to a tournament --and u are trying something/anything to get some level of attention or success.
Again---this was suppose to be the year that we made a statement with these seasoned upperclassmen. Going to the CIT/CBI is making a statement that u are ok with mediocrity! No thank you---not where I come from!
 
Quabachi said:
IF we go 13-5 in the MVC, then the only thing I'd disagree with is that we'd go to the NIT.

And IF we don't get invited to the NIT, then I hope we don't accept an invite to any other tourney.
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I think we have a small shot at the NIT as well, but to do that we must beat Belmont Saturday (something I'm not sure we can do) and be no worse than 13-5 in MVC play. We just can't afford to have too many inexplicable losses this year.
 
BudDawgII said:
I agree and/or unless its been awhile since your team has been to a tournament --and u are trying something/anything to get some level of attention or success.
Again---this was suppose to be the year that we made a statement with these seasoned upperclassmen. Going to the CIT/CBI is making a statement that u are ok with mediocrity! No thank you---not where I come from!
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Going to a post-season tournament is a statement that you're okay with mediocrity?

Do you guys not remember the 2000s after the Menser/Renn/Green crew? THAT was mediocrity.
 
ISUCC said:
I think we have a small shot at the NIT as well, but to do that we must beat Belmont Saturday (something I'm not sure we can do) and be no worse than 13-5 in MVC play. We just can't afford to have too many inexplicable losses this year.
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MUST WIN against Belmont. If we do that and go 13-5 in MVC play, we've got a 20-8 record against D1 opponents. Our overall record will be 22-8.
 
Jason Svoboda said:
Going to a post-season tournament is a statement that you're okay with mediocrity?

Do you guys not remember the 2000s after the Menser/Renn/Green crew? THAT was mediocrity.
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Im not even sure you could call a few of those years mediocre.

The only reasons to turn down a post season offer would be cost, or injuries. If we had a number of guys with injuries, it probably wouldn't be worth it. If we had to pay a significant amount of money it would probably not be worth it. Otherwise, go for it, especially if it will be on national tv.
 

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one adjustment to make, I am watching the ILS-DePaul game on ESPN3, Illinois State is up 4 with 4 minutes to go, I will say they are MUCH improved, so I am gonna remove the @ ILS game from the "inexplicable loss" category and move it to the "expected loss" category, I don't see us winning there honestly. So I think now we're gonna be 12-6 in MVC play and be anywhere from 2nd to 4th when all is said and done.
 
Redbirds beat DePaul 69-64, so it's easy to think we'll lose @ Illinois State. ILS also has a win vs. Northwestern @ Northwestern this year and a win at home vs. #25 Dayton, so ILS is not as bad as everyone thought they'd be this season
 
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Bluethunder said:
Im not even sure you could call a few of those years mediocre.

The only reasons to turn down a post season offer would be cost, or injuries. If we had a number of guys with injuries, it probably wouldn't be worth it. If we had to pay a significant amount of money it would probably not be worth it. Otherwise, go for it, especially if it will be on national tv.
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Yeah go ahead and accept it------keep sucking that hind tit----
 
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