Tournament chances

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rpatterson4

The Blue Level
With both regular season chances to beat Wichita out of the way. Would winning out the rest of the regular conference season and a runner-up in conference tournament get us in the conversation? Or is a Championship in St. Louis our only hope for the big show?
 

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We have to win in St. Louis. The key now is get better every game and win as many as possible, get the two seed and see what happens in St. Louis. Regardless of what happens the rest of the year as far as the tournament, if we play that hard every game, the wins will come and I'll be happy.
 
As I've said from the beginning, you've got to get to 25-26 wins. We've got what is considered 2 bad losses, that is losses to teams with a sub 100 RPI. We've got 7 games remaining and if we were able to win out, that would put us at 24-6. Then you'd need two more wins at least to put them at 26-7 assuming they lost in the MVC final.

That gets them in.

Can the Sycamores reel off 9 wins in a row and make it to the Valley championship final? If they played like they did tonight I think they could and that is exactly what it would take to get an at-large berth.
 
Putting pressure to win 9 in row is setting up for defeat. Win the next one and one a time. I know its a cliché. Team will seek its level.
 
Yes, one game at a time with the conference tournament title as the ultimate goal, as it always should be. We get so caught up in doing enough to win an at-large bid, and I get why, but our focus should be more on having a team talented enough to win the MVC title.
 

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sycamore72 said:
Putting pressure to win 9 in row is setting up for defeat. Win the next one and one a time. I know its a cliché. Team will seek its level.
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I'm not putting pressure on anyone. I'm simply answering the question of what it would take to get an at-large berth. That said, I expect us to play in the NIT and I wouldn't be shocked to see us matched up with one of the other Indiana college teams -- Butler, Purdue, IU, etc.
 
Is it me or does it seem like we're on a crash course of meeting the Indiana Hoosiers in the NIT?? Just sayin'.....
 
rpatterson4 said:
With both regular season chances to beat Wichita out of the way. Would winning out the rest of the regular conference season and a runner-up in conference tournament get us in the conversation? Or is a Championship in St. Louis our only hope for the big show?
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No longer believe that an at-large is possible. Win in St. Louis or no dancing with the big boys.
 
Have been thinking that way for a couple of weeks now too. I could see us vs. IU in the NIT.
 
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Jason Svoboda said:
As I've said from the beginning, you've got to get to 25-26 wins. We've got what is considered 2 bad losses, that is losses to teams with a sub 100 RPI. We've got 7 games remaining and if we were able to win out, that would put us at 24-6. Then you'd need two more wins at least to put them at 26-7 assuming they lost in the MVC final.

That gets them in.

Can the Sycamores reel off 9 wins in a row and make it to the Valley championship final? If they played like they did tonight I think they could and that is exactly what it would take to get an at-large berth.
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Two things I will disagree with you on slightly,.....slightly.

First, I think (I would have to double check) I believe any loss outside of an RPI of 125 is considered by the committee as a bad loss. I don't recall where I read that, but I do recall picking up that little tidbit of info somewhere recently. IF I am right (always a big if) than only the SIU loss is considered "bad" as last I saw Tulsa was within the top 125, though I have not paid attention in the last two weeks so they may have fallen back below that threshold.

Second, it won't matter if we win out, and get to the tournament final and lose, we won't get an at large. We just don't have the resume. We are now 0-3 vs. Top 50 teams in the RPI with a SOS of well over 100, and we won't have the chance to improve that until the MVC tournament and if we then would beat the shockers the point would be moot as we would be an automatic qualifier. Put it simply the committee will look at us and say "didn't play too many tough teams and when they did, they lost them all".

We are all pro ISU, but if you look at our numbers against many other teams in a blind draw where they put the data up and say pick team a or b or c, the vast majority of us would not pick ISU to be a tournament team. We just don't have the resume. Nothing jumps off the page about our season that makes the committee take notice and put us in.

The at-large talk pretty much died last night around 10pm.
 
BallyPie said:
Is it me or does it seem like we're on a crash course of meeting the Indiana Hoosiers in the NIT?? Just sayin'.....
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IU will make the NCAA tournament if they finish 500 or above in conference. They've had a couple good wins lately.
 
BlueSycamore said:
No longer believe that an at-large is possible. Win in St. Louis or no dancing with the big boys.
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I believe you're correct and I'm sure the players and coaches are thinking the same thing. The challenge for the coaching staff the rest of the season will be in keeping the team motivated to get better every game and peak come Arch madness. If we play as hard as we did last night we could run the table. If we don't play with that fire every game, we'll have more losses. Keep winning and you never know how things will play out. Don't let the apparent loss of an at large ruin the season like we did last year.
 
Bluethunder said:
Two things I will disagree with you on slightly,.....slightly.

First, I think (I would have to double check) I believe any loss outside of an RPI of 125 is considered by the committee as a bad loss. I don't recall where I read that, but I do recall picking up that little tidbit of info somewhere recently. IF I am right (always a big if) than only the SIU loss is considered "bad" as last I saw Tulsa was within the top 125, though I have not paid attention in the last two weeks so they may have fallen back below that threshold.

Second, it won't matter if we win out, and get to the tournament final and lose, we won't get an at large. We just don't have the resume. We are now 0-3 vs. Top 50 teams in the RPI with a SOS of well over 100, and we won't have the chance to improve that until the MVC tournament and if we then would beat the shockers the point would be moot as we would be an automatic qualifier. Put it simply the committee will look at us and say "didn't play too many tough teams and when they did, they lost them all".

We are all pro ISU, but if you look at our numbers against many other teams in a blind draw where they put the data up and say pick team a or b or c, the vast majority of us would not pick ISU to be a tournament team. We just don't have the resume. Nothing jumps off the page about our season that makes the committee take notice and put us in.

The at-large talk pretty much died last night around 10pm.
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I've exchanged Twitter messages with Jerry Palm and he puts bad losses at anything higher than 100. It probably varies but I respect his work.

Secondly, I understand the resume complaint but if we win out and have 4 of our 7 losses to Top 25 ranked and RPI teams, it would be hard to deny us. You can only beat who will schedule you. I also exchanged messages awhile back asking how that impacts mid-majors and several said they take it into account. That is why I think we'd get an at-large at 26-7. As an aside, feel free to go take a look at both high major and mid major schools in the RPI range we're in. Look at their records and several have much worse losses and their "good" losses wouldn't be as impressive as ours.
 

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I'm pretty much on board with Jason. The only way we are even on the bubble is if we go 26-7, a very big stretch if we go 25-8. We have the ability to win-out the rest of the way in conference play, but it's going to take the same effort and desire we saw last night. I hope this Senior-laden group sees the challenges and opportunities set before them and chooses to seize the moment. Odum, Cummings, and Arop have a chance to do some really special things this year, and last night's loss makes it harder to accomplish those goals but it's still not impossible.

Nevertheless, the only guaranteed entry comes with a confernce championship. Maybe WSU pisses down their leg like they've done every other year at Arch Madness, and we end up playing someone else for the title?
 
Jason Svoboda said:
I've exchanged Twitter messages with Jerry Palm and he puts bad losses at anything higher than 100. It probably varies but I respect his work.

Secondly, I understand the resume complaint but if we win out and have 4 of our 7 losses to Top 25 ranked and RPI teams, it would be hard to deny us. You can only beat who will schedule you. I also exchanged messages awhile back asking how that impacts mid-majors and several said they take it into account. That is why I think we'd get an at-large at 26-7. As an aside, feel free to go take a look at both high major and mid major schools in the RPI range we're in. Look at their records and several have much worse losses and their "good" losses wouldn't be as impressive as ours.
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I just think what will hurt us is a lack of a single win against a top 50 team. I am not disagreeing that we should be in the conversation or that we are good enough to play with pretty much anyone (we showed that last night), but at the end of the day I think the committee will just say that we didn't beat anyone of significance.
 
Bluethunder said:
I just think what will hurt us is a lack of a single win against a top 50 team. I am not disagreeing that we should be in the conversation or that we are good enough to play with pretty much anyone (we showed that last night), but at the end of the day I think the committee will just say that we didn't beat anyone of significance.
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Yep, I can see it both ways.
 
BrokerZ said:
I'm pretty much on board with Jason. The only way we are even on the bubble is if we go 26-7, a very big stretch if we go 25-8. We have the ability to win-out the rest of the way in conference play, but it's going to take the same effort and desire we saw last night. I hope this Senior-laden group sees the challenges and opportunities set before them and chooses to seize the moment. Odum, Cummings, and Arop have a chance to do some really special things this year, and last night's loss makes it harder to accomplish those goals but it's still not impossible.

Nevertheless, the only guaranteed entry comes with a confernce championship. Maybe WSU pisses down their leg like they've done every other year at Arch Madness, and we end up playing someone else for the title?
Click to expand...

I just hope the team looks at it like an opportunity, and not a challenge. They have the OPPORTUNITY to have one of the better seasons/records in school history, especially in recent history.
 
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