How many wins will satisfy you this year? - Basketball Version

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Jason Svoboda

Jason Svoboda

The Bird Level
Administrator
MSU and SIU beat writers have us in 7th and 5th place

1. Wichita State. The Shockers are ranked 11th in the USA TODAY coaches' preseason poll and that might be a tad too low. With three all-Valley players (Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton) they're the easy pick.

2. Northern Iowa. Five seniors return and Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson gains eligibility. The Panthers lost their defensive identity last season and underachieved.

3. Missouri State. This easily should be the best Missouri State team since the 2011 Valley regular-season title group.

4. Evansville. Everyone returns, including MVC scoring leader D.J. Balentine. Can the Aces jump from eighth into upper half? I think so.

5. Illinois State. The roster has been a revolving door since Dan Muller arrived as coach two years ago. Three juco transfers will need to play big roles, right away.

6. Southern Illinois. A lot of youth, but junior Anthony Beane will be one of the league's best players.

7. Indiana State. Maybe – maybe – I am underselling the Sycamores. Greg Lansing is the league's most-underrated coach.

8. Drake. The return of high-scoring guard Gary Ricks from a broken foot, suffered early last season, will help.

9. Bradley. The Geno Ford era has been a disappointment and fans in basketball-proud Peoria might be growing impatient as year four begins.

10. Loyola. Already a longshot, the Ramblers lost their best player last week when Milton Doyle torn a labrum in his shooting shoulder. He might miss the season.

http://www.news-leader.com/story/sp...valley-insider-shockers-rank-valley/17668147/
 

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SIU beat writer has us in 5th

1. Wichita State - No Cleanthony Early, but you'll struggle to find a better backcourt than Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet.

2. Northern Iowa - A couple transfers that are eligible plus Seth Tuttle equals conference contender.

3. Missouri State - Ron Mvouika is back, as is Marcus Marshall and Austin Ruder. Bears also have forwards Christian Kirk, Gavin Thurman and center Tyler McCullough.

4. Illinois State - Daishon Knight, Bobby Hunter and freshman forward Deontae Hawkins give the Redbirds a lot of talent.

5. Indiana State - No Jake Odum, but the Sycamores have plenty of firepower with Khristian Smith, forward Justin Gant and forward/center Jake Kitchell.

6. Evansville - D.J. Balentine. Check. Egidijus Mockevicius. Check. All-American forward Willie Wiley from Vincennes? Check.

7. SIU - Salukis will be picked low, but with more of an inside presence, better perimeter shooting and a proven clutch guy in Anthony Beane, SIU could surprise some people.

8. Bradley - I like the Braves' roster, but a lot of question marks after losing a guy like Walt Lemon, Jr.

9. Drake - Bulldogs get Gary Ricks, Jr., back after he missed last season due to injury but have lots of new guys. It will take some time before Drake is good in 2014-15.

10. Loyola - Even before Milton Doyle suffered a serious shoulder injury, the Ramblers struggled to score and struggled to defend in their first year in the Valley.

http://thesouthern.com/sports/colle...cle_56259013-b3f7-524b-8240-d744341f2837.html
 
I think 4th to 6th is fair if Gant and Khristian perform well. If one or both exceed expectations, we could be higher.

I've never been sold on Burnett as I think he is a tweener that lacks speed to play the 3 and size to play the 4, but I was interested to see how he would pan out getting significant minutes this year. I think he could have made up for it with hustle and aggressiveness. The table is set for Etherington so he had better bust his ass from now until the first tip. Hope he is taking a TON of extra shots every day after practice.
 
I can tell you this, I never based any opinion of success or lack of on the health of Brandon Burnett. I don't care if Lansing said he was our 6th man - I think the numbers tell the full story here, not always the case but in this instance they do. Burnett hasn't seen the floor for the Sycamores the past 2 seasons for a reason. That reason, he's not very good.

I am fairly confident that Etherington would have earned his minutes no problem.

4th to 7th is a pretty accurate guess in my estimation.
 
With the loss of Burnett, think that will make Q not redshirt.....I know they're different positions, but we may need the available body in general? Or no way, he still redshirts.

(PLEASE DO NOT READ INTO THIS THAT I THINK Q WILL PLAY THE FORWARD POSITION, THAT IS NOT WHAT I'M SAYING)
 

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I am totally baffled why anyone would pick us lower than we were last year!

I think we are better at every position.
 
Quabachi said:
With the loss of Burnett, think that will make Q not redshirt.....I know they're different positions, but we may need the available body in general? Or no way, he still redshirts.

(PLEASE DO NOT READ INTO THIS THAT I THINK Q WILL PLAY THE FORWARD POSITION, THAT IS NOT WHAT I'M SAYING)
Click to expand...

Hahah! SO WHAT ARE YOU SAYING?!?!

I think he will still redshirt.
 
Quabachi said:
With the loss of Burnett, think that will make Q not redshirt.....I know they're different positions, but we may need the available body in general? Or no way, he still redshirts.

(PLEASE DO NOT READ INTO THIS THAT I THINK Q WILL PLAY THE FORWARD POSITION, THAT IS NOT WHAT I'M SAYING)
Click to expand...

With his injury, he redshirts if it is serious. He is behind Bennett, Brown and Scott at the guard spots anyhow and if they wanted to go big, he'd also be behind Khristian or Etherington as well.

Here is what I believe we'll come out with:

PG: Bennett
SG: Brown
SF: Smith
PF: Gant
C: Kitchell

And if we wanted to go big:

PG: Brown or Bennett
SG: Smith
SF: Etherington
PF: Gant
C: Kitch

And if we wanted to go small

PG: Bennett
SG: Brown
SF: Etherington
PF: Smith
C: Gant

We're very lucky to have such a versatile athlete like Khristian. I think he is interchangeable at the 2/3 with Etherington as it will just depend on which spot has the better offensive player -- that's who Khristian would guard. Here is how I'd place the roster with a redshirt Q, injured Burnett and Van Scyoc sitting due to transfer. I didn't put either of the walk-ons in because I don't think they'll see the floor unless we're absolutely waxing someone.

PG: Bennett/Scott
SG: Brown/Prusator
SF: Smith/Etherington
PF: Gant
C: Kitchell/Murphy/Bell

The fact that we only have 10 bodies if they redshirt Q, it will be imperative every guy gets in shape and is ready to go. If they aren't, we're really going to have to learn on our starters to play big minutes.
 
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Jason Svoboda said:
I think 4th to 6th is fair if Gant and Khristian perform well. If one or both exceed expectations, we could be higher.

I've never been sold on Burnett as I think he is a tweener that lacks speed to play the 3 and size to play the 4, but I was interested to see how he would pan out getting significant minutes this year. I think he could have made up for it with hustle and aggressiveness. The table is set for Etherington so he had better bust his ass from now until the first tip. Hope he is taking a TON of extra shots every day after practice.
Click to expand...

If you think we are a 6th place team with all of the talent and experience we have, I guess you don't think we will ever be in the top 4 again?

I think Burnett gave us some depth on the front line and I think he definitely would help. We have had a lot of tweeners play for us -- like Renn and Menser and Green and Block.
 
sycamorebacker said:
If you think we are a 6th place team with all of the talent and experience we have, I guess you don't think we will ever be in the top 4 again?

I think Burnett gave us some depth on the front line and I think he definitely would help. We have had a lot of tweeners play for us -- like Renn and Menser and Green and Block.
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We could easily be a 6th place team. Over the last several years, I'd say at least 50-60% of our games are decided by 6 points or less. When the margin for a win/loss is 3 buckets, you can easily turn a 12-6 conference slate into a 8-8 or 6-12. Combine that with the fact that we've lost Jake and Manny, both of whom took the game winning shots, who will step up and score late in the shot clock or to win the game?

Plus, I think the talent in the Valley is up this year.
 

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Jason Svoboda said:
We could easily be a 6th place team. Over the last several years, I'd say at least 50-60% of our games are decided by 6 points or less. When the margin for a win/loss is 3 buckets, you can easily turn a 12-6 conference slate into a 8-8 or 6-12. Combine that with the fact that we've lost Jake and Manny, both of whom took the game winning shots, who will step up and score late in the shot clock or to win the game?

Plus, I think the talent in the Valley is up this year.
Click to expand...

I hope the MVC talent is up. We need to get better. You're right about games being won or lost by 2-3 plays. There is a fine line between winning and losing. I don't consider Manny a loss. He was way too inconsistent for me. And I'm counting on improvement from our 4 most experienced players. And I think we have the potential to be much better at guard with more scoring threats and much more quickness.

Therefore, I'm counting on us being better at every position. I think that's a 2-4 and I'm not conceding to WSU.
 
sycamorebacker said:
I hope the MVC talent is up. We need to get better. You're right about games being won or lost by 2-3 plays. There is a fine line between winning and losing. I don't consider Manny a loss. He was way too inconsistent for me. And I'm counting on improvement from our 4 most experienced players. And I think we have the potential to be much better at guard with more scoring threats and much more quickness.

Therefore, I'm counting on us being better at every position. I think that's a 2-4 and I'm not conceding to WSU.
Click to expand...

The rest of the Valley has improved and have also added very good players. I absolutely wish ISU the best, but I don't think you should only look at your team when trying to project the finish.
 
wufan said:
The rest of the Valley has improved and have also added very good players. I absolutely wish ISU the best, but I don't think you should only look at your team when trying to project the finish.
Click to expand...

I expect a lot of close games. I've watched ISU for almost a half century and I know what it takes to win. If a few of the players live up to my expectations, I'm not worried about competing or contending.
 
I try not to get caught up in preseason ranking and projections. Perfect example is the football team this year and the baseball team last year. Not a lot of people gave our football team a chance this year and they've knocked off a couple nationally rank teams and currently have a winning record. The baseball was projected to finish dead last in the conference and we know the rest. They finished 2nd in the regular season and earned a bid to a regional. The team itself is going to decide how good they want to be and the coaches are just providing them with the things they need to do to be good. Our job as fans is to get our butts in the stands and support them. Nothing is better than watching the underdog knock off teams that are suppose to be better than them. Hopefully as fans we will have plenty to cheer about this basketball season.
 

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Enough that we finish with another winning season. I think we can do a lot better than that, but there are a lot of unknowns. Hopefully they surprise us like the football team did.
 
Well, we won 23 last year and we are better at every position, so, there you go.

We have no significant unknowns. Our experienced players are entering their 5th, 4th, 4th, and 3rd years. We have a Juco all-american, and a redshirt freshman that was one of the best guards in IN 2 years ago. That's our top 6, and we have 2-3 more that can contribute.
 
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