Indiana State Sycamores (11-4, 4-0) vs. Illinois State Redbirds (6-9, 1-3)
Redbird Arena - Normal, IL
Wednesday, January 4th, 2023
Tip: 8pm
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[January 4, 2023] Indiana State (11-4) at Illinois State (6-9)
- Thread starter Jason Svoboda
- Start date
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Indiana State Sycamores (11-4, 4-0) vs. Illinois State Redbirds (6-9, 1-3)
Redbird Arena - Normal, IL
Wednesday, January 4th, 2023
Tip: 8pm
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Sycamores a 55/45 favorite per ESPN's Matchup Predictor.
Illinois State has a winning record at home this season so while their record is under .500, their home record is not. Think we're like 3-12 in our last 15 meetings there or something close to that and we won back-to-back games there in 2020 when COVID messed the World up. To say I don't have a great feeling about this one would be an understatement.
Illinois State has a winning record at home this season so while their record is under .500, their home record is not. Think we're like 3-12 in our last 15 meetings there or something close to that and we won back-to-back games there in 2020 when COVID messed the World up. To say I don't have a great feeling about this one would be an understatement.
In some ways it could be very similar to playing against Valpo. Redbirds have a talented forward that scores and rebounds well and they also play at a slower pace on offense.
Redbirds seem to turn the ball over a lot for how slow they play. They are in the high 200s or low 300s in many offensive categories.
All that being said, they are 1-3 in the league but one loss was in overtime and the other two were by a couple baskets. They may not be playing well on offense but they are playing hard. Plus their coach came from Ohio State and the Buckeyes typically had very efficient offenses and he was always listed as a big part of that offensive design. So given time I think they will work out their kinks on that end of the court.
Bottom line, if our defense travels and stays committed, we should win. If our offense plays like it did in the first ten min against Valpo and the defense plays like it did in the first ten min of the second half we will win. If both play like they did in the last part of the second half against Valpo, well then I won’t feel good about this one.
We need to push the ball, speed up the game and pressure the Redbirds. Get turnovers and runouts for some easy points.
Redbirds seem to turn the ball over a lot for how slow they play. They are in the high 200s or low 300s in many offensive categories.
All that being said, they are 1-3 in the league but one loss was in overtime and the other two were by a couple baskets. They may not be playing well on offense but they are playing hard. Plus their coach came from Ohio State and the Buckeyes typically had very efficient offenses and he was always listed as a big part of that offensive design. So given time I think they will work out their kinks on that end of the court.
Bottom line, if our defense travels and stays committed, we should win. If our offense plays like it did in the first ten min against Valpo and the defense plays like it did in the first ten min of the second half we will win. If both play like they did in the last part of the second half against Valpo, well then I won’t feel good about this one.
We need to push the ball, speed up the game and pressure the Redbirds. Get turnovers and runouts for some easy points.
I feel pretty decent about our chances once again here… I think we’re due for a good shooting performance. However, often times when we’re scoring at will - we basically decide not to exert ourselves on D and that is when we get in trouble. So yes - the defensive commitment and focus is imperative for this team not only in this game but the rest of the season. And quite frankly - I’m not going back and watching the Valpo game because they were pretty dreadful but I outside of some really good individual D from Cam Henry and Larry at times I wasn’t that impressed with our D. I feel like Valpo had open looks on the perimeter and they got pretty deep to the basket on us and they just couldn’t get anything to fall.
Illinois State is a decent-ish defensive team. While they don’t do much to worry me offensively, they do a decent job getting to the line and making free throws. We have a problem where we seem to get foul-happy in the second half of games and allow teams to hang around with free throw opportunities. We’re going to need to play a cleaner game against Illinois State in order to keep them at arm’s reach.
Kenpom gives us a 68% chance to win the game, which is better than ESPN’s prediction. Either way, it’s a game we should win.
Still, just like I mentioned with Valpo, we have a history/tendency to let teams like Illinois State hang around. They have a couple of solid players in Burford, Lewis, Knight and Poindexter, so they have some individual talent that could carry them if we give them the chance. They’re not otherwise a very deep team, and getting their forwards in foul trouble can basically kill their chances.
I will predict an ISU victory, but I think this one will be uncomfortable. 72-70 good guys.
Kenpom gives us a 68% chance to win the game, which is better than ESPN’s prediction. Either way, it’s a game we should win.
Still, just like I mentioned with Valpo, we have a history/tendency to let teams like Illinois State hang around. They have a couple of solid players in Burford, Lewis, Knight and Poindexter, so they have some individual talent that could carry them if we give them the chance. They’re not otherwise a very deep team, and getting their forwards in foul trouble can basically kill their chances.
I will predict an ISU victory, but I think this one will be uncomfortable. 72-70 good guys.
The only thing that makes me uncomfortable about this game is that I'm comfortable... 
Name a game this season where we've finally started to feel like okay - we got things rolling now - these guys are bought in - they know what it takes to win - they're playing for each other - they know each game requires it's own since of urgency - we actually care about defense.
Everything comes caving in on us. That's been the common theme. Tell me I'm wrong!
Name a game this season where we've finally started to feel like okay - we got things rolling now - these guys are bought in - they know what it takes to win - they're playing for each other - they know each game requires it's own since of urgency - we actually care about defense.
Everything comes caving in on us. That's been the common theme. Tell me I'm wrong!
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Perfect way to put it. I’m exactly the same way. There’s nothing in my head that tells me we should lose this game…and that worries me.The only thing that makes me uncomfortable about this game is that I'm comfortable...
Name a game this season where we've finally started to feel like okay - we got things rolling now - these guys are bought in - they know what it takes to win - they're playing for each other - they know each game requires it's own since of urgency - we actually care about defense.
Everything comes caving in on us. That's been the common theme. Tell me I'm wrong!
MVC-Only #s for the Redbirds:
Where their scoring comes from: 49.1% from 2, 34.1% from 3, 19.2% from the line.
Where their shot attempts come from: 55.8% from 2, 40.5% from 3.
Where their opponent's scoring comes from: 47.8% from 2, 31.3% from 3, 20.9% from the line.
Where their opponent's shot attempts come from: 59.5% from 2, 40.5% from 3.
Points Per Possession (Points Scored/Allowed per possession)
They average 0.98 points per possession (1.02 league average - you want > 1.0 here).
Their opponents average 1.03 points per possession (1.01 league average - you want < 1.0 here).
O/D Ratings (Points Scored/Allowed per 100 possessions)
They have an 97.7 O Rating (101.8 league average - higher is better).
They have a 98.8 D Rating (101.3 league average - lower is better).
Offensive 4 Factors
eFG% - 50.4% (48.8% league average - higher is better)
TO% - 25.1% (19.2% league average - lower is better)
OR% - 25.4% (24.7% league average - higher is better)
FTR - 0.207 (0.242 league average - higher is better)
Defensive 4 Factors
eFG% - 48.2% (48.3% league average - lower is better)
TO% - 15.4% (19.2% league average - higher is better)
DR% - 82.1% (75.2% league average - higher is better)
FTR - 0.368 (0.245 league average - lower is better)
docs.google.com
Where their scoring comes from: 49.1% from 2, 34.1% from 3, 19.2% from the line.
Where their shot attempts come from: 55.8% from 2, 40.5% from 3.
Where their opponent's scoring comes from: 47.8% from 2, 31.3% from 3, 20.9% from the line.
Where their opponent's shot attempts come from: 59.5% from 2, 40.5% from 3.
Points Per Possession (Points Scored/Allowed per possession)
They average 0.98 points per possession (1.02 league average - you want > 1.0 here).
Their opponents average 1.03 points per possession (1.01 league average - you want < 1.0 here).
O/D Ratings (Points Scored/Allowed per 100 possessions)
They have an 97.7 O Rating (101.8 league average - higher is better).
They have a 98.8 D Rating (101.3 league average - lower is better).
Offensive 4 Factors
eFG% - 50.4% (48.8% league average - higher is better)
TO% - 25.1% (19.2% league average - lower is better)
OR% - 25.4% (24.7% league average - higher is better)
FTR - 0.207 (0.242 league average - higher is better)
Defensive 4 Factors
eFG% - 48.2% (48.3% league average - lower is better)
TO% - 15.4% (19.2% league average - higher is better)
DR% - 82.1% (75.2% league average - higher is better)
FTR - 0.368 (0.245 league average - lower is better)
MissouriValleyStats2022-23
Right there with you. This is about that time when a Sycamore team has a let down and I don't want to hear the word basketball for 2 days. Hopefully we can take that 3 game losing skid and learn from it and take care of business.The only thing that makes me uncomfortable about this game is that I'm comfortable...
MVC notebook: Illinois State seeks to correct turnover issue like Indiana State has done this season
Illinois State is having turnovers problems, much like Indiana State did last season. But the Sycamores have reversed course and are leading the MVC heading into Wednesday's game against the Redbirds at CEFCU Arena.
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Another interesting stat I saw was Illinois State’s average length of possession on defense. They are only defending an average of 15.8 seconds in conference play while we play offense very fast and have an average length of offensive possession of 15.2.MVC-Only #s for the Redbirds:
Where their scoring comes from: 49.1% from 2, 34.1% from 3, 19.2% from the line.
Where their shot attempts come from: 55.8% from 2, 40.5% from 3.
Where their opponent's scoring comes from: 47.8% from 2, 31.3% from 3, 20.9% from the line.
Where their opponent's shot attempts come from: 59.5% from 2, 40.5% from 3.
Points Per Possession (Points Scored/Allowed per possession)
They average 0.98 points per possession (1.02 league average - you want > 1.0 here).
Their opponents average 1.03 points per possession (1.01 league average - you want < 1.0 here).
O/D Ratings (Points Scored/Allowed per 100 possessions)
They have an 97.7 O Rating (101.8 league average - higher is better).
They have a 98.8 D Rating (101.3 league average - lower is better).
Offensive 4 Factors
eFG% - 50.4% (48.8% league average - higher is better)
TO% - 25.1% (19.2% league average - lower is better)
OR% - 25.4% (24.7% league average - higher is better)
FTR - 0.207 (0.242 league average - higher is better)
Defensive 4 Factors
eFG% - 48.2% (48.3% league average - lower is better)
TO% - 15.4% (19.2% league average - higher is better)
DR% - 82.1% (75.2% league average - higher is better)
FTR - 0.368 (0.245 league average - lower is better)
MissouriValleyStats2022-23
I can’t put my finger on it as to why Illinois State’s opponents are putting up shots so fast. I know why we do it on offense, but how are the Redbirds defending that is leading other teams to play so fast against them? This is also a relatively new trend for Illinois State at they are 277th in this category overall if you count their non-con.
None of their previous 4 MVC opponents (Belmont, Murray State, UIC and UNI) play particularly fast overall, but they all obviously did against Illinois State.
I feel like this plays into our favor. They’ve been speeding up their opponents on defense, and that’s exactly how we like to play.
McChesney is a big who's been playing pretty well for them as well.
Anyone have any info on Bledson and Martin's availability for this game?
Good luck Sycamores! Looking forward to Larry staying in the starting line up and Voss having a big game.
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Voss is due for a big game.
We don’t need him to have a big game though. We need a steady and efficient 12-15. We have plenty of people who can score the ball - I don’t need Voss to off for 30. He’s at his worst when he’s playing selfish.
I’ll take an exact replay of the Miami game. He had a pretty big game then…
GoSycamores
The Renn Level
TERRE HAUTE, Ind. - Indiana State plays its second straight Valley road game Wednesday night when the Sycamores tip off against Illinois State at 8 p.m. ET from CEFCU Arena in Normal, Ill.
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