Joe Lunardi: Sycamore Enemy or He Hit the Bull's Eye?

[TreeTop]

Found this...Chats with Joe Lunardi

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/46661

Jordan (Casper, Wy)

Hey Joe, love your work. I was just wondering what your argument is against the Sycamores? Indiana State has 5 loses and 4 of those are against top 50 RPI teams. The only bad loss would be Morehead State, but the win against Miami should more than make up for that. How can Ole Miss be in, but a team that beat them not even be in the Last Four Out?

Joe Lunardi (4:13 PM)

It's a classic case of my (and your) evaluation of a team being different from what I think the Committee would do under the same circumstances. Indiana State (along with Florida State) probably has the "best" wins of any team not in the current field. The difference is that ISU has an inflated RPI based more on fortunate scheduling than actual performance. Other metrics -- KenPom (No. 90) and our BPI (No. 84) -- are less high on the Sycamores.

 

[Bluethunder]

BPI is the dumbest thing in the world, and only for college athletics would something that dumb be put into place. ESPN's BPI still has Illinois State about five places ahead of Indiana State. Yea, great system you guys created their. Good job fellas. Just tell me the score and shut the F' up ESPN.

That aside, if I am reading Joe's answer correctly, he is basically saying that him not putting State into his bracket is what he thinks would happen if the bracket were to come out tomorrow, not necessarily what he believes should happen? Am i right on that one?

 

[IndyTreeFan]

What the hell does "fortunate scheduling" even mean? The teams we've beaten aren't as good because they played us instead of someone else? Or is it, like the now famous "eye test," that we aren't in a BCS conference so we couldn't possibly be good? The simple fact is this - we have several very high quality teams on our schedule, and we've beaten some of them. So yes, we are good. "Fortunate scheduling" doesn't mean dick, and I'm sure that way down deep, in places he doesn't talk about at parties, Joe Lunardi likes us there. He needs us there.

If a BCS team had played our schedule, tools like Lunardi would be falling all over themselves gushing about what an outstanding non-con they had, and saying that their performance against that schedule would guarantee a bid in March. But because it's Indiana State, he can't even bring himself to compliment our team in better than a backhanded fashion. He's a great indicator of what's wrong with college basketball.

 

[TreeTop]

That aside, if I am reading Joe's answer correctly, he is basically saying that him not putting State into his bracket is what he thinks would happen if the bracket were to come out tomorrow, not necessarily what he believes should happen? Am i right on that one?

I think that's correct, that it's based on "if the tourney started today". Seems ridiculous to not have the team with a 27 RPI in the 68 field tourney.

And yeah, "fortunate scheduling"...agree, what does that mean, very stupid. Fortunate that our AD put us up against high quality teams and in a tourney where we could show how good we are.

 

[dino]

the only "fortunate" scheduling would be sycamores opportunity to start the season at ucla based on john woodens association with the team and a very great draw in the mvc/mwc tourney. if you want to call the diamondhead classic a "fortunate" schedule you have open your eyes and realize that nothing there was handed to them. The diamondhead classic, like every over non-con tourney, was set up with 4 very good teams playing 4 very unlikely underdogs. ISU was the only underdog to come out on top and nobody that matters should discount their victories against ole miss and miami. isu wasnt fortunate enough to make their way to a 3rd place finish, they earned it by outlasting ole miss and then beating an acc team. not to mention, they played SDSU much better than anybody could have expected and actually held a lead in the second half.

I absolutely hate joe lunardi but to extent respect his vast knowledge of bball trends /end vent.

 

[Bluethunder]

Remember when Missouri State got the royal screw job when they had an RPI of 22 or something like that? The only reason MSU didnt make it that year is because the committee didnt want to put five MVC teams in, no matter how deserving they were. They would rather give it to the Big East so they can have 8 average teams along with their three that actually belong.

This is why i have very little excitement about Indiana State getting an at large bid. There is too much bball left to be played, and i believe no matter how we perform, the committee will do everything they can to keep us out and will come up with any reason/rational they can to let a bigger name in.

 

[agrinut]

I think that's correct, that it's based on "if the tourney started today". Seems ridiculous to not have the team with a 27 RPI in the 68 field tourney.

And yeah, "fortunate scheduling"...agree, what does that mean, very stupid. Fortunate that our AD put us up against high quality teams and in a tourney where we could show how good we are.

Tell that to a 24 win 21rpi team.

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

Remember when Missouri State got the royal screw job when they had an RPI of 22 or something like that? The only reason MSU didnt make it that year is because the committee didnt want to put five MVC teams in, no matter how deserving they were. They would rather give it to the Big East so they can have 8 average teams along with their three that actually belong.

This is why i have very little excitement about Indiana State getting an at large bid. There is too much bball left to be played, and i believe no matter how we perform, the committee will do everything they can to keep us out and will come up with any reason/rational they can to let a bigger name in.

Yup! Anyone who gets caught up in this bracket talk in January is really setting themself up for major dissapointment. We've had a thread about what the Sycamores need to do to be in the comversations at the end of the season. The chances of all those things falling into place for this team are not high.

And for what it's worth ESPN can shove it.

 

[bent20]

We're 10-5 and 3-1 at the halfway point. That's hardly a record that's going to jump out at anyone, regardless of who we've beat. We need to concentrate on getting to 20 wins and then hope for a little help if we want any shot at an at-large bid. Three or four more losses might be all it takes, realistically, to knock us out of contention, so it is way too early to care what a Joe Lunardi thinks.

 

[bent20]

Tell that to a 24 win 21rpi team.

I think people forget this isn't the NCAA tournament field of the mid-2000s when multiple MVC teams made it in. We're lucky, very lucky, to get two in these days.

 

[agrinut]

I think people forget this isn't the NCAA tournament field of the mid-2000s when multiple MVC teams made it in. We're lucky, very lucky, to get two in these days.

Oh I agree, but as a whole the league has fallen back a little. With that said college basketball is down across the nation talent wise.

 

[region rat]

I am really optimistic and excited about our team because of the ongoing and constant improvement in all faucets of their game, no matter what any "analyst" thinks.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

We're 10-5 and 3-1 at the halfway point. That's hardly a record that's going to jump out at anyone, regardless of who we've beat. We need to concentrate on getting to 20 wins and then hope for a little help if we want any shot at an at-large bid. Three or four more losses might be all it takes, realistically, to knock us out of contention, so it is way too early to care what a Joe Lunardi thinks.

I think you're spot on about 3-4 more losses. The losses can be at the hands of Creighton and Wichita State. Lose elsewhere and that's a negative. That said, looking around the country, our record isn't too shabby when you move outside of the BCS conferences.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/standings

 

[IndyTreeFan]

To me, it's not about whether or not we get an at-large. It's all about the sickening double standard that those people have in the game. As I said, if a BCS conference team had our exact schedule and record, the "experts" would be talking about the great scheduling and how well the team has performed against a really tough schedule. Since it's us (or almost any mid-major), we get "fortunate scheduling" and " inflated RPI based more on fortunate scheduling than actual performance." That's just horse-hockey. Not to mention that it doesn't even say anything. It's merely gibberish.

I don't have to spend time worrying about an at-large bid, because I'll show up for my team no matter what tournament they're playing in. But this kind of crap gets old year, after year, after year...:smack:

 

[bent20]

I think you're spot on about 3-4 more losses. The losses can be at the hands of Creighton and Wichita State. Lose elsewhere and that's a negative. That said, looking around the country, our record isn't too shabby when you move outside of the BCS conferences.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/standings

I think we have to beat Creighton and Wichita State each at least once (at least hold home court) to even get consideration. If all four of our losses are to them and we win the rest of our Valley games, I still think we're a bubble team that probably gets left out. Getting an at-large bid, when those teams are almost certain to make it, is going to be tough, especially if there is an upset champ in the MVC tournament and it's not us.

And that's why I think it's silly to talk about an At-Large bid. We'd have to be 12-3, at least, at this point, for that to be a real possibility. We're going to have to win a ton of games to be a serious at-large consideration.

 

[4Q_iu]

I think we have to beat Creighton and Wichita State each at least once (at least hold home court) to even get consideration. If all four of our losses are to them and we win the rest of our Valley games, I still think we're a bubble team that probably gets left out. Getting an at-large bid, when those teams are almost certain to make it, is going to be tough, especially if there is an upset champ in the MVC tournament and it's not us.

And that's why I think it's silly to talk about an At-Large bid. We'd have to be 12-3, at least, at this point, for that to be a real possibility. We're going to have to win a ton of games to be a serious at-large consideration.

The two things that hurt us right now:

Win over #$%^ Div II Truman State AND that loss to Morehead State.

If we'd have a loss to Murray State AND a win over a CAA, other OVC, Sunbelt, C-USA, Southland, virtually ANY Div I program; we'd get a bit more love.

As it is; we have 5 losses, all but the Morehead loss are to CURRENTLY ranked teams OR formerly ranked (still receiving votes).

For the record, Josephine Lunardi is a Douche.

 

[bent20]

Oh I agree, but as a whole the league has fallen back a little. With that said college basketball is down across the nation talent wise.

That and the big money schools cried enough that mid-majors don't get as much love now from the selection committee.