Updated: Sycamores control playoff destiny

[Jason Svoboda]

Not holding on to that Illinois State game looks bigger and bigger by the moment. The Sycamores need 3 more wins to become playoff eligible and we've got two tough home games remaining.

Sat, Oct 25 @ Southern Illinois
Sat, Nov 01 Missouri State
Sat, Nov 08 South Dakota State
Sat, Nov 15 @ Youngstown State
Sat, Nov 22 @ Western Illinois

They had better figure the offense out because the Valley teams are taking advantage of us being so one dimensional. We rank dead last in pretty much every offensive category in Valley play. Additionally, not being able to convert on 3rd down is keeping our defense on the field way too long and they're starting to suffer because of it -- our time of possession is out of whack.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

Not sure what can give the offense a spark, but the offensive line must get better. Maybe it is time to move Dmitri Taylor into the starting back role? He is averaging nearly 7 yards a carry. Would also like to see some variety to the passing game. How about some quick slants instead of just the quick swings into the flats? I think you have to make Tonyan a focal point with his size like they did against Liberty.

 

[mohoops247]

Short answer - yes. Hopefully the O gets on track Saturday. Biggest issue is 3rd down conversion (and stupid penalties that stall out momentum - i.e. False start to make it 1st and 15, unsportsmanlike penalty on kick return to back us up to goal line to start drive, etc. seems like we've had a lot of these stupid penalties). I'd also like better decisions out of return team - we don't have to bring it out EVERY time. We rarely get back to the 20, let alone 25 (where we would get ball if we took touchback).


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[BlueSycamore]

If they intend to make the playoffs they better finish 3-2. If not it will be "wait 'till next year" again. Win and you move on. Lose 3 and go home.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

Short answer - yes. Hopefully the O gets on track Saturday. Biggest issue is 3rd down conversion (and stupid penalties that stall out momentum - i.e. False start to make it 1st and 15, unsportsmanlike penalty on kick return to back us up to goal line to start drive, etc. seems like we've had a lot of these stupid penalties). I'd also like better decisions out of return team - we don't have to bring it out EVERY time. We rarely get back to the 20, let alone 25 (where we would get ball if we took touchback).

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Agreed on pretty much every front. Here are the stats. We rank among the bottom half of FCS rankings out of 121 teams) in quite a few of the categories.

Total Offense	90	336.6
Rushing Offense	116	78.3
Passing Offense	24	258.3
Team Passing Efficiency	42	133.37
Scoring Offense	T-68	25.6
First Downs Offense	90	121
Red Zone Offense	54	0.815
3rd Down Conversion Pct	110	0.294
4th Down Conversion Pct	T-16	0.667
Punt Returns	T-97	5
Kickoff Returns	98	17.72
Time of Possession	108	27:38:00
Turnover Margin	2	1.57
Fewest Penalties Per Game	T-70	7.14
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game	71	63.29

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[IndyTreeFan]

I love the fact that we're even having this discussion! Back in August, how many of you (me included) would have said we would be talking playoff possibilities on October 21? Yeah, don't lie. None of us. So, this is an awesome discussion to have.

What I like even more is the number of underclassmen that are playing major minutes for us. I don't know if I've got the number right, but someone said in another thread that we only have 9 seniors playing. :yahoo:HOLY MOLY!!!:yahoo: We could be set up for a nice run of a few years.

Will we finish 3-2? I have no idea, but I'd guess that we have about a 55% chance of doing just that. Will I be distraught if we don't? No, because I think we'll be in the hunt next year, too. And the year after that. And the year after that. And the year after that...:grillin:

 

[niklz62]

I see 5 teams we can beat. I don't see any that are doing anything that impresses me much. Like ITF says, it's nice to have this conversation. I want to go back and see what I thought would be acceptable before the season. The win at Ball St gave us some breathing room. I'll be disappointed if we don't go 4-1 and any game we lose will make me angry from now on since we played my 3 question marks already.

 

[Eleven]

Not holding on to that Illinois State game looks bigger and bigger by the moment. The Sycamores need 3 more wins to become playoff eligible and we've got two tough home games remaining.

Sat, Oct 25 @ Southern Illinois
Sat, Nov 01 Missouri State
Sat, Nov 08 South Dakota State
Sat, Nov 15 @ Youngstown State
Sat, Nov 22 @ Western Illinois

They had better figure the offense out because the Valley teams are taking advantage of us being so one dimensional. We rank dead last in pretty much every offensive category in Valley play. Additionally, not being able to convert on 3rd down is keeping our defense on the field way too long and they're starting to suffer because of it -- our time of possession is out of whack.

I think the offense will "right itself" soon.
The Redbirds game would NOT have been a loss - nor would the offensive numbers been so anemic with the starting QB in the lineup. Our future QB turned it around in the second half, but Perish would have certainly won that game.

THen we take on the #1 team in the country over the last 6 years?? (ranked in top 3 for how many years now?)

That is a tough 2 game stretch.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

I think the offense will "right itself" soon.
The Redbirds game would NOT have been a loss - nor would the offensive numbers been so anemic with the starting QB in the lineup. Our future QB turned it around in the second half, but Perish would have certainly won that game.

THen we take on the #1 team in the country over the last 6 years?? (ranked in top 3 for how many years now?)

That is a tough 2 game stretch.

Since you put quotes around that, I'd assume you don't agree. Our offense also looked pretty woeful against Northern Iowa as well. My point is our defense has played well in conference getting some major stops when needed and that has been the difference along with limiting turnovers. We're 110th in the country (out of 121 teams) in 3rd down conversion percentage and 108th in time of possession. Law of averages states our defense is going to have significant fatigue and could start breaking down earlier in games -- you could argue it is already happening as our overall numbers have dropped like a rock since we started conference play. And while I concur that we just had a crazy two game stretch, it gets no easier IMO.

Conference Only Numbers:

Scoring Offense

SIU - 3rd @ 24.8ppg
SDS - 5th @ 24.3ppg
WIU - 6th @ 22.8ppg
MSU - 7th @ 22.0ppg
YSU - 8th @ 21.3ppg
ISU - 9th @ 18.3ppg

Scoring Defense

YSU - 2nd @ 17.0ppg
MSU - 3rd @ 19.3ppg
SIU - 6th @ 22.8ppg
ISU - 7th @ 24.3ppg
WIU - 8th @ 28.0ppg
SDS - 10th @ 33.7ppg


Sycamores are 10th in total offense, 5th in total defense, 10th in rushing offense, 8th in rushing defense, 4th in pass offense, 4th in pass defense, 7th in pass efficiency, 3rd in pass efficiency defense, 9th in kickoff returns, 9th in punt returns, 7th in interceptions, 4th in punting, 9th in kickoff coverage, 6th in sacks for, 8th in sacks against, 10th in first downs, 7th in opponent's first downs, 9th in 3rd down conversions, 8th in opponent 3rd down conversions, 2nd in 4th down conversions, 1st in opponent 4th down conversions, 8th in penalties, 4th in opponent penalties, 10th in time of possession, 3rd in turnover margin, 8th in red zone offense, 5th in red zone defense.

If you look at those numbers, we've in waaaay to many 6th or higher spots and occupy way too many last place spots.

http://www.mvc.org/football/stats/confonly.htm

 

[Jason Svoboda]

WHAT do you guys think can be done offensively to put up 27 points per game the rest of the season? I think that is the golden number that could have us winners in all 5 contests if our defense can hold court on the conference average.

 

[niklz62]

Since you put quotes around that, I'd assume you don't agree. Our offense also looked pretty woeful against Northern Iowa as well. My point is our defense has played well in conference getting some major stops when needed and that has been the difference along with limiting turnovers. We're 110th in the country (out of 121 teams) in 3rd down conversion percentage and 108th in time of possession. Law of averages states our defense is going to have significant fatigue and could start breaking down earlier in games -- you could argue it is already happening as our overall numbers have dropped like a rock since we started conference play. And while I concur that we just had a crazy two game stretch, it gets no easier IMO.

Conference Only Numbers:

Scoring Offense

SIU - 3rd @ 24.8ppg
SDS - 5th @ 24.3ppg
WIU - 6th @ 22.8ppg
MSU - 7th @ 22.0ppg
YSU - 8th @ 21.3ppg
ISU - 9th @ 18.3ppg

Scoring Defense

YSU - 2nd @ 17.0ppg
MSU - 3rd @ 19.3ppg
SIU - 6th @ 22.8ppg
ISU - 7th @ 24.3ppg
WIU - 8th @ 28.0ppg
SDS - 10th @ 33.7ppg


Sycamores are 10th in total offense, 5th in total defense, 10th in rushing offense, 8th in rushing defense, 4th in pass offense, 4th in pass defense, 7th in pass efficiency, 3rd in pass efficiency defense, 9th in kickoff returns, 9th in punt returns, 7th in interceptions, 4th in punting, 9th in kickoff coverage, 6th in sacks for, 8th in sacks against, 10th in first downs, 7th in opponent's first downs, 9th in 3rd down conversions, 8th in opponent 3rd down conversions, 2nd in 4th down conversions, 1st in opponent 4th down conversions, 8th in penalties, 4th in opponent penalties, 10th in time of possession, 3rd in turnover margin, 8th in red zone offense, 5th in red zone defense.

If you look at those numbers, we've in waaaay to many 6th or higher spots and occupy way too many last place spots.

http://www.mvc.org/football/stats/confonly.htm

I'll just throw some spin in there. We have played:
#1,2&4 scoring offense and
#1,4&5 scoring defense
Has anyone else played the conference schedule we have so far?
(I'm guessing that USD is the lower rank missing in both)

 

[Jason Svoboda]

I'll just throw some spin in there. We have played:
#1,2&4 scoring offense and
#1,4&5 scoring defense
Has anyone else played the conference schedule we have so far?
(I'm guessing that USD is the lower rank missing in both)

Definitely an excellent point and provides balance to the numbers. Here are the results for those:

SIU - 41-10 W vs USD, 38-10 L vs NDSU, 26-14 L vs YSU
MSU - 14-7 L vs YSU, 32-28 L vs SDSU, 31-12 L vs USD
SDSU - 45-10 L vs ILSU, 32-28 W vs MSU, 31-28 W vs UNI
YSU - 14-7 W vs MSU, 30-24 L vs WIU, 26-14 W vs SIU
WIU - 17-10 L vs NDSU, 30-24 W vs YSU, 37-34 L vs ILSU

So the group above is a combined 1-4 against NDSU, ILSU or UNI with the sole win by SDSU beating UNI 31-28 this past weekend by a FG with under 2 minutes to play. It was a UNI's place so that is impressive and it looks like they (UNI) either benched their QB or he was injured.

 

[ISUCC]

Definitely an excellent point and provides balance to the numbers. Here are the results for those:

SIU - 41-10 W vs USD, 38-10 L vs NDSU, 26-14 L vs YSU
MSU - 14-7 L vs YSU, 32-28 L vs SDSU, 31-12 L vs USD
SDSU - 45-10 L vs ILSU, 32-28 W vs MSU, 31-28 W vs UNI
YSU - 14-7 W vs MSU, 30-24 L vs WIU, 26-14 W vs SIU
WIU - 17-10 L vs NDSU, 30-24 W vs YSU, 37-34 L vs ILSU

So the group above is a combined 1-4 against NDSU, ILSU or UNI with the sole win by SDSU beating UNI 31-28 this past weekend by a FG with under 2 minutes to play. It was a UNI's place so that is impressive and it looks like they (UNI) either benched their QB or he was injured.

UNI used 2 QB's that game, it was on TV, that game was unreal, sdsu leading 28-14 in 4th Q, UNI drives, scores TD to go down 7, they then do an onside kick, get the kick, but go 4 and out and turn the ball over on downs, THEN, with little time left, sdsu INEXPLICABLY continues to PASS instead of run, UNI intercepts pass and runs back for TD, tying the game, UNI goes into prevent defense, thus allowing sdsu to get in FG range, kick a FG to go up 3, UNI still has time to drive, they get inside the 50 and throw a pass to the end zone and it's intercepted.

hopefully sdsu is still without their #1 QB when they come to town, because their backup throws a LOT of INT's, our defenders could have a heyday that day, we're gonna need to capitalize on their turnovers for sure.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

UNI used 2 QB's that game, it was on TV, that game was unreal, sdsu leading 28-14 in 4th Q, UNI drives, scores TD to go down 7, they then do an onside kick, get the kick, but go 4 and out and turn the ball over on downs, THEN, with little time left, sdsu INEXPLICABLY continues to PASS instead of run, UNI intercepts pass and runs back for TD, tying the game, UNI goes into prevent defense, thus allowing sdsu to get in FG range, kick a FG to go up 3, UNI still has time to drive, they get inside the 50 and throw a pass to the end zone and it's intercepted.

hopefully sdsu is still without their #1 QB when they come to town, because their backup throws a LOT of INT's, our defenders could have a heyday that day, we're gonna need to capitalize on their turnovers for sure.

So it sounds like SDSU basically dominated the game and let turnovers almost cost them the game all with a backup QB. That definitely worries me for our matchup, especially since this was on the road at UNI. It also looks like UNI contained Zenner for the most part as well.

How did SDSU's defense look?

 

[niklz62]

I feel like we could have put a lot more points up on UNI had we limited errors.

anytime you have a runner like zenner you have a shot to win a game.

when we played them at home last time, i thought we did an ok job with him except for 2 big runs. or at least that's how i remember it. I call that my photogenic memory.

 

[bent20]

All of our remaining opponents have shown some weakness, but they've all had some good showings as well. We don't get any easy ones this year. In retrospect, Ball State might be the weakest opponent we played this year (aside from Tennessee Tech).

 

[ISUCC]

so so at best, I think we'll do well vs. them. UNI is not that good, they totally underutilize the Johnson kid, which is too bad. I hope our D can contain their RB too.

So it sounds like SDSU basically dominated the game and let turnovers almost cost them the game all with a backup QB. That definitely worries me for our matchup, especially since this was on the road at UNI. It also looks like UNI contained Zenner for the most part as well.

How did SDSU's defense look?

 

[Jason Svoboda]

I feel like we could have put a lot more points up on UNI had we limited errors.

anytime you have a runner like zenner you have a shot to win a game.

when we played them at home last time, i thought we did an ok job with him except for 2 big runs. or at least that's how i remember it. I call that my photogenic memory.

Agreed. That is why I'd like to see some new wrinkles added to the offense. We definitely need to figure out how to get bigger chunks of yardage on 1st and 2nd downs -- way too many 3rd and longs. Find a way to get Tonyan/Brown behind the LBs into the middle of the field or something. I also am a huge fan of slant routes, especially when receivers can't get separation. That would probably be a good thing for Levingston.

As for Zenner, those runs were killer. Our LBs were way too aggressive in that game and once he got past the 1st level, he was untouched. If their starting QB is still out when we play them, I'd imagine we'll spy Zenner and go after the kid running the show right now if he is as mistake prone as ISUCC says.

 

[ISUCC]

Agreed. That is why I'd like to see some new wrinkles added to the offense. We definitely need to figure out how to get bigger chunks of yardage on 1st and 2nd downs -- way too many 3rd and longs. Find a way to get Tonyan/Brown behind the LBs into the middle of the field or something. I also am a huge fan of slant routes, especially when receivers can't get separation. That would probably be a good thing for Levingston.

As for Zenner, those runs were killer. Our LBs were way too aggressive in that game and once he got past the 1st level, he was untouched. If their starting QB is still out when we play them, I'd imagine we'll spy Zenner and go after the kid running the show right now if he is as mistake prone as ISUCC says.

it'll be interception city if he's still playing when they come to TH, look at their turnovers, they're the worst in the MVFC I think

 

[the johnner]

If we pass protect and stay healthy we cruise into the playoffs. If we don't it gets dicey.

Boda, I hear what you're saying but I wouldn't mess with the routes now. Time to trust Shepherd. He's made some great calls and, given the time, we have been able to execute critical plays that have WON games. However coach, if you're reading this here's a suggestion, if the 5 offensive interior linemen can't get the job done,MAX PROTECT. Trust me if it's a two-man route or a three-man route because of the extra pass protection these receivers can get the job done. Whoever they are!!!

GO SYCAMORES BEAT THOSE DAWGS!!!