I do think that we fundamentally agree. My $30MM number came directly from Coach Mallory at one of the coaches' shows early in the season. Today, I tried to verify it, but is quite hard to do because schools are holding their spending close to the vest to maintain some leverage with individual players. Everything I could find was some analyst's estimate w/o documentation or detailed data.
Cignetti is quoted in one article that the values he has to deploy are a lot more than what he was promised when he took the job.
Your point about the number of 4* players IU has relates to my point that CC's experience in talent evaluation and recruiting has been able to unearth players the star system missed. With some digging, I found that Elijah Surratt and Aiden Fisher, two of the B10's top performers, were both 0* recruits out of HS. And, I imagine he got them on the cheap to some degree. So, judicious application of NIL funds and a sharp eye for talent and skill at development have proven to go a long way.
Fernando Mendoza was a 2* at a less than mediocre Cal program but was putting up some interesting numbers. I suppose we have all heard that Fernando's recruitment was heavily influenced by the rapid progress his younger brother was making in the IU system. He could see how rapidly his brother's physical skills and situation recognition skills were advancing and didn't want to fall behind him. Considering his a leading candidate to win the Heisman, IU got a deal no matter what is NIL package is.
There is a lot of money in those wallets/purses of IU alums. The success achieved so far will lead to an even greater level of contributions. Lots of schools with big budgets, so everyone cannot win 10+ games/year so who knows what happens going forward, but for sure the deck is being reshuffled each year.
1) Why is Mallory worrying about the Loosiers NIL purse? Isn't he being paid to figure out how to build the State program to compete better and (potentially) increase the NIL collective in Terre Haute?
2) IF Mendoza is to win the Heisman, he'd better have a game for the ages this weekend -- if he's as pedestrian on Saturday as he was last Friday - the Buckeyes will have him for lunch AND dinner; course, he'll have the benefit of playing INDOORS and it'll be a balmy 72 vice ~25 as it was in the Bucket game... And I doubt the Buckeye DBs will drop as many INTs as were dropped... The Buckeyes could easily deny him the Heisman as Anthony Thompson was denied the Heisman c. November 1989
3) Given the BLOAT in the P2/P3 football-centric conferences; I can see a number of schools put up undefeated conference records -- harken back to the Classic Big Ten (of Ten schools...) The Big Ten played a 8-tm conf schedule, a team could miss/dodge a school for a few years BUT you were playing essentially everyone, TODAY, that same Big Ten is 18 schools (guess arithmetic isn't a subject for Big Ten students/athletes) and they play a 9-tm schedule; at 9-gms, schools will easily be able to miss/dodge playing the toughest teams - not their doing BUT they certainly benefit from it.
Still not buying the snake oil out of Gloomington