FBS realignment talk is back in season...

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So then I assume the Big 12 attempts to poach the remaining PAC12 schools of note (i.e. Oregon, Stanford, etc.), or does the PAC12 kill the Mountain West for good?
 
Many years ago, pundits forecasted four 16-team super conferences. It appears that is getting very close to reality.
 
Notre Dame might even be willing to join the B1G if USC joins and gets a guaranteed game with them each season. That's just a ton of money in a TV deal. The SEC and B1G are quickly leaving the ACC, P12, and B12 behind with these moves. I still think Clemson and Florida State will also end up in the SEC at some point as well.
 
Sycamorefan96 said:
Notre Dame might even be willing to join the B1G if USC joins and gets a guaranteed game with them each season. That's just a ton of money in a TV deal. The SEC and B1G are quickly leaving the ACC, P12, and B12 behind with these moves. I still think Clemson and Florida State will also end up in the SEC at some point as well.
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ND will be forced within the decade to choose between the B10 and SEC. All other conferences will be secondary fodder.
 

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DyedBlue said:
Many years ago, pundits forecasted four 16-team super conferences. It appears that is getting very close to reality.
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I think we're now going to see two mega conferences in the B10 and SEC and then the rest of the power schools will be getting the crumbs. I think both will get to 20 teams by the end of the decade and basically eat the majority of media deal money between them.
 
It's being reported that USC and UCLA both approached the Big 10 first. With these additions it's estimated that each Big Ten school will get roughly $80-100M each year in TV money. Obviously with that kind of money, the travel just doesn't matter.

The time change might be the most interesting part of this. California is 3 hours behind Indiana, so if a game starts at 7PM there it will be 10PM here. If a game starts at noon in Lafayette it will be 9AM in LA.
 
Hard to see how in a college world dominated by 16 -- 20 team mega conferences there will be any need at all for so called "FCS" or "mid-major" teams; certainly any that can, at least occasionally, play head-to-head with the "big boys". Media attention, money, fan interest (even by a school's alumni) will continue to decline. Even schools with very nice facilities like our Hulman Center or those with nice 15,000 -- 25,000 seat football stadium will see their attendance decline even further from the drastic drop we've seen over the past several years ---- no matter how successful the teams are. So we'll end up with a couple "major league" football groups -- might as well call them "National League" and "American League". Other major colleges, who had traditionally been part of the big-time college scene, will find themselves on the outside -- huge stadiums increasingly empty, high expectations from alumni not met, and big TV money drying up.
Even within these major leagues its hard to imagine how the lower schools find success -- hard enough to be in 8th place in the old Big Ten -- now you're in 16th place in new Big Ten come 2030. Wow. Talk about being irrelevant.
 
I have a feeling that the Big Ten (and even the SEC) will end up splitting in half in the end. I think the big time football programs will end up cutting loser schools like IU, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, and Northwestern off of the tit at some point. A conference with say Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan State, potentially Notre Dame, potentially Oregon, and potentially Washington would make those schools even more money than a 18-20 team super-conference, because they can keep all the money for themselves.
 

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BrokerZ said:
Zero percent chance we ever play a Big10 or SEC school again after 2025. Those money games are dead.
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Yep, 100%. That well is going to be drying up.

Cause their next play, once both conferences are jam packed at 20 is to adjust the BCS rules so they dominate the matchups. To do so, they will have to make sure they sell SOS so they'll just play each other and likely will play B10/SEC for OoC.

Their goal is to monopolize the pot of money.
 
Coaches want to keep their multi-million dollar jobs. Fans want to see victories in their home stadium. I would expect there will be 3-4 non-conference games/year in football and coaches will want those to be near sure victories. Doesn't human nature and job preservation play a role in scheduling down the food chain?
 
DyedBlue said:
Coaches want to keep their multi-million dollar jobs. Fans want to see victories in their home stadium. I would expect there will be 3-4 non-conference games/year in football and coaches will want those to be near sure victories. Doesn't human nature and job preservation play a role in scheduling down the food chain?
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Sure, but coaches have literally no say in these conference realignments. This is all done by the College Presidents, ADs and their Boards. They would sell their coach down the river today if it means they can potentially add $10/20/30m+ a year to their coffers.

For the NCAA, March Madness is the crown jewel as that is where they make the bulk of their revenues. However, they split it evenly amount 350 schools after doling out their NCAA tournament shares. For these power conferences, the BCS/CFP is the crown jewel because it is outside the control of the NCAA. The power conferences own it just like they own their media rights deals and those BCS paydays dwarf NCAA tournament revenue.

Here is an old article and the money they are raking in is only going up: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristi...ence-by-conference-breakdown/?sh=5430d0d32938

So you can bet your bottom dollar that once the B10 and SEC get to 20 team monsters, they are going to absolutely shut everyone out. By going full conference and cross conference alone, they could almost guarantee that they have most of the teams in the CFP based on how SoS works. At the beginning of every year there are probably only 4-5 teams that have a realistic shot anyhow so this would allow them to essentially bogart the stash.
 

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I'm hearing that Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado have applied for Big XII membership. Between Baylor, Kansas, Arizona, and Houston they are going to be stacked in basketball.
 
Jason Svoboda said:
Which is why it boggles my mind with schools adding football or moving up from FCS to FBS right now. Talk about tone deaf... look at the what inflation is doing right now so that means everything just got more expensive across the board. I'm sure it added another several hundred thousand to our budget so having to then adhere to additional scholarships, selling a minimum allotment of tickets, additional logistics, etc. No way.
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Bumping this up -- esp. WRT Inflation..., current travel costs...
 
Jason Svoboda said:
ND will be forced within the decade to choose between the B10 and SEC. All other conferences will be secondary fodder.
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Some pundits (quietly) suggest the $EC is too "blue collar" for the "white collar" alumni from nd... not sure how much nd moves the needle on either conf TV Eyes-O-Meter
 
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