[February 7, 2024] Indiana State (20-3) vs Valparaiso (6-17)

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TERRE HAUTE, Ind. - Indiana State men's basketball welcomes Valparaiso to the Hulman Center for the first time in the 2023-24 season. The game tips at 7 p.m. ET.

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From the gameday notes...

Gameday Promotions
  • Red Panda (Rong Niu) is the halftime entertainment. Red Panda, an acrobat, has been deemed by Sports Illustrated as the NBA's most popular intermission entertainment. Red Panda climbs onto a seven-foot unicycle and flips dishes from her foot onto her head.
  • Wednesday will feature 80s-themed music throughout the night.
  • The Forest is encouraged to dress in beach attire.
  • The first 3,000 fans get an Indiana State Rollabana (presented by Wright's Pool Service).
 
spread is at -20.5 tonight on DK, seems like if we play our starters the entire game that'd be safe, but I'm assuming we won't and that is high
 
Can’t make the trip down from Fort Wayne on a weeknight, but will be looking forward to the matchup 2 weeks later in Valpo.
 

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What's HCJS's mindset??..I mean...you could almost make the case that we should treat these remaining 8 games like we're a college football team trying to move up in the rankings...to impress the voters....which means "style points". That we can't "just win"....we need to win in gawdy fashion.

But HCJS's mindset might be..."let's win, but not run anything up, we're going give the bench some minutes" etc...

I really don't want to rely on having to win in St Louis...but if you listened to Joe Lunardi during the Drake game telecast, he made it pretty clear our only way in is to win in St Louis...or win our remaining games by 20 and lose in 4 OTs in St Louis..he basically said we need to win out with some flare to get an at large should we lose in St Louis..

Just curious what HCJS is thinking in this regard.....do we kerp the pedal down...or give our starters some rest and not cover point spreads..??
 
What's HCJS's mindset??..I mean...you could almost make the case that we should treat these remaining 8 games like we're a college football team trying to move up in the rankings...to impress the voters....which means "style points". That we can't "just win"....we need to win in gawdy fashion.

But HCJS's mindset might be..."let's win, but not run anything up, we're going give the bench some minutes" etc...

I really don't want to rely on having to win in St Louis...but if you listened to Joe Lunardi during the Drake game telecast, he made it pretty clear our only way in is to win in St Louis...or win our remaining games by 20 and lose in 4 OTs in St Louis..he basically said we need to win out with some flare to get an at large should we lose in St Louis..

Just curious what HCJS is thinking in this regard.....do we kerp the pedal down...or give our starters some rest and not cover point spreads..??
Why not? Look how Drake stormed back.
 
What's HCJS's mindset??..I mean...you could almost make the case that we should treat these remaining 8 games like we're a college football team trying to move up in the rankings...to impress the voters....which means "style points". That we can't "just win"....we need to win in gawdy fashion.

But HCJS's mindset might be..."let's win, but not run anything up, we're going give the bench some minutes" etc...

I really don't want to rely on having to win in St Louis...but if you listened to Joe Lunardi during the Drake game telecast, he made it pretty clear our only way in is to win in St Louis...or win our remaining games by 20 and lose in 4 OTs in St Louis..he basically said we need to win out with some flare to get an at large should we lose in St Louis..

Just curious what HCJS is thinking in this regard.....do we kerp the pedal down...or give our starters some rest and not cover point spreads..??
Lunardi will magically come around by the end of the month to save face.
 

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What's HCJS's mindset??..I mean...you could almost make the case that we should treat these remaining 8 games like we're a college football team trying to move up in the rankings...to impress the voters....which means "style points". That we can't "just win"....we need to win in gawdy fashion.

But HCJS's mindset might be..."let's win, but not run anything up, we're going give the bench some minutes" etc...

I really don't want to rely on having to win in St Louis...but if you listened to Joe Lunardi during the Drake game telecast, he made it pretty clear our only way in is to win in St Louis...or win our remaining games by 20 and lose in 4 OTs in St Louis..he basically said we need to win out with some flare to get an at large should we lose in St Louis..

Just curious what HCJS is thinking in this regard.....do we kerp the pedal down...or give our starters some rest and not cover point spreads..??

I made a post in the SM forum, but we have the easiest remaining schedule having now got both Drake and Bradley out of the way. Considering we are now on the cusp of a Top 25 rating, the goal should be to win out otherwise we'll be knocked back down in the high 30s to low 40s most likely. If we get into Selection Sunday ranked and only having lost in Arch Madness, we'd be anywhere from 28-4 to 30-4 with a Top 25 NET. There is no way you could leave that team out because you'd be saying that not only is the NET irrelevant, your AP and Coaches polls are as well.

That would essentially be saying both the computers AND all expert parties were incompetent.

 
Despite was Lunardi said i think we've positioned ourselves to have a little bit of breathing room. I think winning the #9 rated conference should count for something, especially if we do it in convincing fashion. We are currently done with Bradley, Drake, UNI, and Belmont. With 5 games left against Evansville, Illinois State, UIC, and Valpo. Great for securing the #1 seed and winning the conference but little bit dicey for computer rankings. I mean at this point we have the Metrics, we have the record, we have the #1 offense, and we have a media darling type team/personnel. If we don't get in I don't know what mid-majors have to do going forward. With #23, #22, #21 all losing yesterday and still a lot of games to go this week, I'd bet the house we are 2 wins away from being top 25 next week.

But first let's put out the Beacons!
 
Yep, I can see that. His statements potentially exposed either himself or the metrics used to select at-large teams.
The reality is that they'll put in whoever they want and the metrics exist only to allow their choices to be justified one way or another.

NET could get one team in, but for a team left out they'll claim their high NET is due to low strength of schedule, etc.

I'm not entirely convinced they don't have the brackets done on that Fri/Sat and the final conference tournament games don't actually matter. I think it was 2019 that Tennessee won the SEC tournament and somehow had a lower seed than two other SEC teams.
 
We still have MSU AND SIU at their place. I feel like they may be dangerous.

Those are super dangerous games!

What Lunardi said, really shouldn't even be talked about anymore on here... We are giving it way more attention than it deserves.

We can likely still afford a loss at MSU and or SIU. Other teams around us are going to continue to play and lose as well. Looking at this as if Indiana State is the only team right now that is an at-large or fringe at-large that can't afford to lose is flat wrong. Even amongst P5 schools - several schools are in the position that we are in with little margin for error. This is rather uncharted territory for us as fans and it's really easy to just look at Indiana State and evaluate from that perspective - makes perfect sense. But other teams around us losing are going to likely keep us in the conversation until the very end.

Outside of having really good metrics we have a lot of other really interesting story lines going for us right now. Indiana State is a good story - the Larry Bird factor shouldn't be ignored as I think it carries bubble weight. As @treeman mentioned above it will not be ignored that we are one of the best offensive teams in the country and have been for months. In other words, once you start looking at factors outside of the NET, SOS, KenPom, Q Wins and Losses - a lot of other factors make IndState an obvious choice for an at-large bid. I'm not even sure that Tom Izzo's remarks and Nate Oats remarks about InState don't hold weight if they are down to the "last 4 in" type of debate - I'm going to give the committee making those decisions the benefit of the doubt they will be taking a lot of other factors other than resume into consideration and I think those factors help (not hurt) our case.

Can we afford to drop games vs. Valpo or Evansville or UIC? Probably not. But again - you lose one of those games I'm still not sure the sky is falling? You make a run to the Championship game in STL and finish the regular season at 27-4 that gets you to 29-5 with a bad loss to say Evansville? OR you finish 28-6 with a bad loss at Evansville and a loss at Southern IL. I still think you are going to be firmly in the at-large conversation. At that point we might be on the outside looking in... But we're in a really good spot and we should start acting like it as fans. Worrying about stuff out of our control is really a waste of time and effort. Just win baby, just win!
 

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What's HCJS's mindset??..I mean...you could almost make the case that we should treat these remaining 8 games like we're a college football team trying to move up in the rankings...to impress the voters....which means "style points". That we can't "just win"....we need to win in gawdy fashion.

But HCJS's mindset might be..."let's win, but not run anything up, we're going give the bench some minutes" etc...

I really don't want to rely on having to win in St Louis...but if you listened to Joe Lunardi during the Drake game telecast, he made it pretty clear our only way in is to win in St Louis...or win our remaining games by 20 and lose in 4 OTs in St Louis..he basically said we need to win out with some flare to get an at large should we lose in St Louis..

Just curious what HCJS is thinking in this regard.....do we kerp the pedal down...or give our starters some rest and not cover point spreads..??
Blowing teams out improves your NET. No room for error there, hammer down.
 
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