[January 1, 2026] Indiana State (8-6) at Northern Iowa (10-3)

[Jason Svoboda]

vs.

Indiana State Sycamores (8-6, 1-2) vs. Northern Iowa Panthers (10-3, 2-0)

McLeod Center - Cedar Falls, IA
Thursday, January 1st, 2026
Tip: 8:00PM EST​

 

[treeman]

Pretty darn tough first 4 games in the valley season. Bradley = 3-0 Illinois State = 3-0 Belmont = 2-1 UNI = 2-0. With the way UNI plays it’s going to be a somewhat close game just because they don’t score at a high margin. If we are able to sneak this one out and go 2-2 in the first 4 that would be a huge win. And of course we would be thinking “what could have been” against Bradley (I swear we are always SSSOOOO close to having an awesome start to the Valley season every year)

 

[Jason Svoboda]

Pretty darn tough first 4 games in the valley season. Bradley = 3-0 Illinois State = 3-0 Belmont = 2-1 UNI = 2-0. With the way UNI plays it’s going to be a somewhat close game just because they don’t score at a high margin. If we are able to sneak this one out and go 2-2 in the first 4 that would be a huge win. And of course we would be thinking “what could have been” against Bradley (I swear we are always SSSOOOO close to having an awesome start to the Valley season every year)

Was just looking at their numbers. It looks like Jake has gone all in on playing four corners with this roster and it's working. Their pace is damn near last in the country and as a result, their defense is ranked 6th in the nation. From Haslametrics:

ANALYSIS:
Northern Iowa has been extremely effective at times this year and should be regarded as a serious opponent. Haslametrics has them ranked 62nd overall (out of 365) in All-Play Percentage, and the team holds a record of 10-3. They are also ranked by this site as the #2 team (out of 11) in the MVC (average ranking 135.8).

The Northern Iowa defense will be extremely problematic for most opposing offenses. Allowing about 89 points for every 100 possessions vs. AO and demonstrating a preference for a more deliberate, half-court style of play (the 15th-slowest pace in D1), the club is ranked sixth overall in defensive efficiency. Northern Iowa will put a good dent in the shooting percentages of several opponents, considering the team ranks in the top-50 in each of the four major defensive shooting categories. Defending the long-ball is their strength (allowing 26.9% shooting from three vs. AO, third-best in the nation), but the team also harasses AO into converting just 53.2% of their near-proximity attempts (32nd), 30.4% of their mid-range chances (21st), and 38.1% of their total shots from the field (tenth). Northern Iowa also does a super job to deny opponents offensive rebounds and second chances. They have a rating of 9.84 vs. AO in potential points allowed off of second chances (ranked seventh in the country), and they allow AO to convert just 3.6% of their second-chance opportunities (ranked 17th) as well. Northern Iowa is lastly a superior unit when it comes to preventing opponents from getting to the foul line. With a defensive free throw attempt rate of 22.35 vs. AO, they are currently rated 25th in the country in that category.

Unfortunately, Northern Iowa is not even remotely close to being as good on offense as they are on defense. The team is ranked 239th in offensive efficiency, scoring about 104 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. Northern Iowa poses no threat whatsoever to grab rebounds off their own misses. Against AO, the ball-club has a rating of 8.84 in potential points scored off of second chances (fourth from the bottom nationally), and they convert just 3.7% of their second-chance opportunities (ranked 349th) as well. Northern Iowa also struggles to draw fouls and earn opportunities at the free throw line. With a free throw attempt rate of just 23.14 vs. AO, they are 318th in the overall rankings for that category. If Northern Iowa does have a strength offensively, it would have to be the team's care for the ball. The squad has a rating of 9.53 in potential points allowed off of steals vs. AO, which ranks 22nd in the college game.

Northern Iowa is one of the most consistent teams in NCAA basketball (currently ranked sixth in consistency), which makes the outcomes of their upcoming games far easier to predict.

 

[Prisonmate]

Booked 3 nights in STL and bought all-session tickets for Arch Madness today after the high of last night’s win.

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

I mean... We're not hugely reliant on fastbreak offense in the first place. I feel like this team is very use to playing late in the shot clock - last night we got several buckets around the rim after working offense for most of the shot clock.

*Sometimes it’s a product of us over dribbling or being slow to get into our action. JVB and sometimes Sterling both have issues with this.

But does a grind it out game really bother this team? I’m not sure… I mean we’re going to find out but I don’t think so. We’re also very use to playing close games at this point - hasn’t really translated to us playing great in close games but closing out the Milwaukee game and Belmont are good examples of games that were a bit grindy and took a lot of toughness to win.

I haven’t seen UNI play - but I’d give us a fighting chance.

 

[Huff77]

With JVB doing a lot of token pressure up the floor, I wouldn't mind seeing some experimental half court trapping on this road trip.

 

[jturner38]

I mean... We're not hugely reliant on fastbreak offense in the first place. I feel like this team is very use to playing late in the shot clock - last night we got several buckets around the rim after working offense for most of the shot clock.

*Sometimes it’s a product of us over dribbling or being slow to get into our action. JVB and sometimes Sterling both have issues with this.

But does a grind it out game really bother this team? I’m not sure… I mean we’re going to find out but I don’t think so. We’re also very use to playing close games at this point - hasn’t really translated to us playing great in close games but closing out the Milwaukee game and Belmont are good examples of games that were a bit grindy and took a lot of toughness to win.

I haven’t seen UNI play - but I’d give us a fighting chance.

UNI is really good defensively but they play slow offensively. Not as slow as Drake was last year but similar.