Top 5 MVC Teams in 22-23 Point Guard Performance Comparison

[DyedBlue]

Which are your top three choices as a point guard for ISU based on the performance of point guards for Bradley, Drake, SIU, Belmont, and ISU in head-to-head competition in the past season?

The players to evaluate were identified by a leading authority on MVC talent.

One common comment here is that Julian Larry was worse against better competition and we desperately need an upgrade to be competitive. I thought I would do something radical and actually look at the data for head-to-head competition this past season among the top five teams in the league. Then I compared that to each player's full-season stats.

In the head-to-head competition, the number of games varies from 7 to 10 depending on the round-robin schedule and # of games in the MVC tourney.

Which players are your top three choices in order from #1 (most preferred), #2 (next), and #3 (next and still in the upper echelon)??
Is their level of contribution acceptable to you and why?

Which do you identify as the bottom three performers among the top five teams in the league?

Assuming I get some responses to actual data, I shall provide the key in a day or two when time allows.

....................Head to Head Data.............................................................................................................................Full Season Stats All Games...........................................................................................................................................
Player.......Assists...Turnovers....Points........FGA/FGM..........FTA/FTM....Minutes.....Pts/Game====Assists.....Turnovers....FGA/FGM..................FTA/FTM.......Min/game.....Pt/Game
1..................18............10...................65..............26/38=38%.....5/8=63%.....267...............7.2.........................71.................56................110/277 =39.7%...24/42=57%....30.4................8.6
2....................6..............6...................27..............11/26=42%.....2/2=100%...85.................3.4............................41...............36...............44/109=40.4%.......26/34=76%......14.3...............3.9
3..................26............13.................53..............28/73=39%......2/2=100%.....203.............7.6............................115............52...............82/196=41.8%.......22/35=63%.....27.2................8.2
4................56.............25..................153............64/130.49%....22/31=71%....337.............15.3.........................186.............68..............163/335=49%........87/107=81%.....31.1..............12.6
5................23..............18.................77.............25/55=45%......19/25=76%.....235............9.6............................89..............68...............62/135=46%..........43/58=74%.......27.8..............7.0
6..............13................18................72.............22/73=30%.......15/16=94%....218............8.0............................98...............66..............110/295=37%........45/57=79%........26.2..............9.6
7..............19................16................40..............16/35=45.7%...6/10=60%......212............5.0..............................119..........72..............93/157=59.2%.......54/66=82%..........25.5.............7.0
8..............12..................7................37..............14/38=37%.......2/3=67%.......194............3.7..............................56..............32..............53/122=43%............19/29=66%.........18.6............4.1
9.............18..................15...............59.............26/64=41%.......4/7=57%.........156..........8.4.............................106.............58..............118/260=46%..........47/66=71%.........22.2...........9.6

For virtually every player, the A/TO ratio got worse in head-to-head competition against the better teams.
For 7 of 9, the FG% was worse head to head.
For 7 of 9, the Pts/Game was worse head-to-head.

 

[Sycamorefan96]

#4 is clearly the best and #6 is clearly the worst. Everyone else looks pretty average.

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

Since you took the time to put this together I will participate…

4, 5 and 3 likely in that order.

One I have a headache now from trying to decipher that code, two I’m hesitant because stats can lie a little bit and I know since you always do +/- statistics you understand this. But the main reason that Larry was in the game was not because of his offense but because of his defense. I say not only did he struggle offensively during the better teams - he dropped down significantly defensively as well. He got lit up on more than one occasion. On the flip side - even in games where he was producing and super efficient on O - was he equally as good on D? I’m not saying he was or he wasn’t. Just saying that picking out a few guys based on stats is tough for me to get excited about.

But carry on. It took some time to put this together so I figured I’d see what you were getting at.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

Need the 3FG numbers before I can do anything here. Yes, those are that important to this system.

PG stats also need steals shown.

 

[DyedBlue]

It is pretty easy to get the season stats; however, it is quite a bit to get the round-robin, game-by-game performance.
I hope you are happy with the season-long look.

Player..........3 Pt FGM/FGA.....3 Pt %....Season Steal Total.......Average Minutes/Game
1...................48/143...................34%.........................27.................................30.4
2..................14/45......................31%.........................18..................................14.3
3..................26/74.....................35%..........................22...................................27.2
4..................14/43......................35%.........................30...................................31.1
5..................35/82......................43%.........................50...................................27.8
6..................70/195....................36%.........................31..................................26.2
7...................13/28......................46%..........................45.................................25.5
8....................19/59.....................32%..........................25................................18.6
9...................23/78......................30%.........................49..................................22.2

 

[Jason Svoboda]

So obviously 4 is Roman Penn and nobody is going to kick him off their squad.

After that, I'm taking 5 and then 7 because of the steals and 3FG%. Mainly because of the steals because the differential in takeaways likely more than made up for the PPG differential. I assume Larry is one of those, maybe 7. Number 5 seems like the Johnson kid from SIU or Wood from Murray State?

I can't recall what classes those two are. I will say I appreciate the thought exercise here but if 7 is Larry, I'd be curious to see the numbers if any of them have an outlier game that could possibly skew that stats. Do the list above include Evansville, Illinois State, Valpo or UIC? I'd also want those folks excluded since they were really bad defensively.

At the end of the day, hopefully Larry can take another step this offseason.

 

[DyedBlue]

So obviously 4 is Roman Penn and nobody is going to kick him off their squad.

After that, I'm taking 5 and then 7 because of the steals and 3FG%. Mainly because of the steals because the differential in takeaways likely more than made up for the PPG differential. I assume Larry is one of those, maybe 7. Number 5 seems like the Johnson kid from SIU or Wood from Murray State?

I can't recall what classes those two are. I will say I appreciate the thought exercise here but if 7 is Larry, I'd be curious to see the numbers if any of them have an outlier game that could possibly skew that stats. Do the list above include Evansville, Illinois State, Valpo or UIC? I'd also want those folks excluded since they were really bad defensively.

At the end of the day, hopefully Larry can take another step this offseason.

The original data had "head to head' comparisons that included only competition against the other four teams. So it excluded the bottom four and the next three. That seemed to address the question: "How does a player's contribution shift against better competition?" So, I think I answered your question with an even tighter filter.

 

[DyedBlue]

The original data had "head to head' comparisons that included only competition against the other four teams. So it excluded the bottom four and the next three. That seemed to address the question: "How does a player's contribution shift against better competition?" So, I think I answered your question with an even tighter filter.

Sorry. I forgot the original data did not break out the 3 point makes and attempts. It is a fair amount of work to dig that out and I think it is a marginal return on the effort. I think I shall hang up my miner's hat and put my pick and shovel away for awhile.

 

[DyedBlue]

The player identifications are as you identified them. Impressive.
As you noted, Roman Penn clearly stands out and was a Player of the Year candidate. Julian Larry performed at the top of the remaining players in the top five teams in the league. Of course, players like Born were not in the mix due to lack of team success.

Evaluation of defensive contributions is trickier, especially in this age of switching every screen. We are not on the inside of the plan to determine when a switch is to be made or not.

#1: Connor Hickman ....................Bradley
#2: Dalton Banks, .............................SIU
#3: Keishawn Davidson..................Belmont
#4: Roman Penn................................Drake
#5: Xavier Johnson.......................... SIU
#6: Duke Deen...................................Bradley
#7: Julian Larry..................................ISU
#8: Conor Enright...........................Drake
#9: Ja'Kobi Gillespie.......................Belmont