What's it going to take to win the MVC?

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How many wins does it take to win the MVC?

  • 19

    Votes: 2 5.4%

  • 18

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 17

    Votes: 4 10.8%

  • 16

    Votes: 13 35.1%

  • 15

    Votes: 17 45.9%

  • 14

    Votes: 1 2.7%
  • Total voters
    37
treeman

treeman

The Menser Level
Supporter
I've been thinking about this for a while but keeping my mouth shut. Maybe it's just me coping with the game yesterday and trying to get back to a positive mindset. But, I've been wondering what peoples thoughts are what the win total needed to win this dang conference. We weren't going 20-0; nobody was. But we are still in 1st and in complete control of our destiny.

This is my take on it:
19 wins = Duh you're champions with no worries in February (this isn't happening)
18 wins = Run away with the outright title
17 wins = gets you the outright title with no drama the last week
16 wins = probably gets you an outright title but depending how the chips fall you might be sharing it
15 wins = might be enough but you are co-champions with someone else if not 2 other teams
14 wins = not going to get it done

I think we are going to have to finish the season going something like 10-3 or 11-2, which is doable, but yesterday was a real kick in the gut.
 

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IndyTreeFan said:
15-5 will be the champion this year. No one is 17-3 good, or at least that much better than everyone else.
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I agree. The four way tie for second right now are all sitting at 5-2. I have a hard time believing that any of them will finish better than 10-3 to close the year.
 
14-15 wins will likely be the 1st place record in conference. I can say 18 and 19 are probably laughable. Only 5 teams could win 18 at this point and it would require all of them going undefeated from here out. Possible? Sure, I suppose. Likely. Highly unlikely.

We're 7 games through so even if you just x3, you're getting 14-6 for the tops. We're coming back to the pack unless our guys figure out how to beat physical play.
 
As mentioned in an earlier post.....we will know where we are in the MVC following the Drake road game. Wins in the next 4 games are going to be hard to come by.
A 2-2 record in the next 4 games would be okay by me. And, yes I would much prefer a 4-0 mark........but that ain't gonna happen......please prove me wrong.
 

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I just don't think 14 is going to be enough. I think Bradley is a team the most capable of going on a tear. They have great defense with a much better offense than SIU. More will be clear with our destiny when we play the middle teams (Belmont, Missouri State, UNI, Murray). 16 wins is where I'm feeling comfortable at, anything lower now you are playing the "who beat who" game and things get interesting.
 
treeman said:
I just don't think 14 is going to be enough. I think Bradley is a team the most capable of going on a tear. They have great defense with a much better offense than SIU. More will be clear with our destiny when we play the middle teams (Belmont, Missouri State, UNI, Murray). 16 wins is where I'm feeling comfortable at, anything lower now you are playing the "who beat who" game and things get interesting.
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Bradley is the best team in the league right now per my eyeball test. They're 5-2. We have 13 games left. To get to 14 wins, they'd have to go 9-4.

They still have SIU twice, Drake twice, us once at Hulman, Belmont again, Murray State again and UNI on the road. The likely have the highest remaining SOS so if they go better than 9-4 in that gauntlet, they definitely fought their way to the top. Their losses were on the road at Belmont and Murray.

I will say I believe they have a much tougher road than us.
 
Jason Svoboda said:
Bradley is the best team in the league right now per my eyeball test. They're 5-2. We have 13 games left. To get to 14 wins, they'd have to go 9-4.

They still have SIU twice, Drake twice, us once at Hulman, Belmont again, Murray State again and UNI on the road. The likely have the highest remaining SOS so if they go better than 9-4 in that gauntlet, they definitely fought their way to the top. Their losses were on the road at Belmont and Murray.

I will say I believe they have a much tougher road than us.
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Alright Svoboda, you got me curious on remaining strength of schedules for teams so I did a little "treeman" math and put together my algorithm on SOS left for the top 8 teams. Just to give me an idea what each team has coming up in their schedule. Here is how it works:
I put all valley teams in a tier:

Tier 1: (these teams are worth 3 points at home 4 points on the road)
Indiana State
Bradley
Southern Illinois
Drake

Tier 2: (these teams are worth 2 points at home and 3 points on the road)
Murray State
Northern Iowa
Belmont
Missouri State

Tier 3: (these teams are worth 1 points at home and 2 point on the road)
Illinois State
Evansville
Valpo
UIC

Now, I get there are tougher games in same tiers like Illinois State is way better than Eville; but it is what it is.

So pretty simple. Tier 1 = 4 points on the road, 3 at home. Tier 2 = 3 points on the road, 2 at home. Tier 3 = 2 points on the road, 1 at home.

Here is how the math stacks up with remaining schedules:
Southern Illinois = 29
Indiana State = 31
Belmont = 32
Murray State = 33
Drake = 33
Bradley = 34
Missouri State = 35
Northern Iowa = 35

We are still sitting pretty with one of the better SOS's going forward and with a 1 game lead. Still lots of ball left to be played and anything can happen. The next 2 weeks are going to be HUGE. Now I'll sit back and wait for the NCAA to contact me to use this formula going forward instead of RPI, NET, and KenPom
 
Agreed 14 wins doesn't get it done. 16 to win outright and 15 wins you're probably looking at co champions.
 
Only playing Bradley once will help us tremendously for a SOS outlook. It could be a key tie-breaking game, too.

I think we get to 14 wins at our current trajectory from conservative view, but I think 15 gets you a regular season title. Our February schedule is pretty tame...we just need to survive through January.
 

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BrokerZ said:
Only playing Bradley once will help us tremendously for a SOS outlook. It could be a key tie-breaking game, too.

I think we get to 14 wins at our current trajectory from conservative view, but I think 15 gets you a regular season title. Our February schedule is pretty tame...we just need to survive through January.
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15 wins including a win over Bradley probably gets us champs alone. If we lose that I think Bradley can get to 15 too.
 
In order for us to even sniff a top tier finish we better figure out how to play TWO halves of basketball. It's on our coaching staff to do so. This issue is driving me crazy as it's happened repeatedly now in several of our games. Last night it bit us after getting another big lead.
 
pbutler218 said:
In order for us to even sniff a top tier finish we better figure out how to play TWO halves of basketball. It's on our coaching staff to do so. This issue is driving me crazy as it's happened repeatedly now in several of our games. Last night it bit us after getting another big lead.
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We're 6-1. Sounds like every other Valley team needs to figure out how to do the same.

Yes, it was unfortunate yesterday but can we please pump the breaks?
 
Guys, let’s not forget, we’re still in first place. We’re still a good team. We weren’t going 20-0 in conference, wasn’t ever gonna happen. I’d rather lose to SIU than to Valpo or Evansville.

Even if we lose five in a row, we still have a legit shot at the regular season crown. We’ll be fine. Let’s be positive for a change!!!
 
Bringing this one back up. Obviously any team that finishes 16-4 is going to finish in 1st. But I think 14 might be the magic number; unfortunately for us to navigate to a conference championship, it's probably going to be a shared title and to my knowledge we wouldn't hold too many tie breakers.

What are the tie breakers anymore? head-to-head? then NET?
 

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I think 15 is still the number....I think our best path is winning out and being in a 2 way tie with Belmont. If Bradley is in the mix we are pretty much toast. I feel like we lose a lot of round robin tie breakers. I think everyone has at least 2 "lose-able" games left. Can't believe there are only 3 weeks left.
 
SIU and Drake probably have hardest schedules left

Drake/Bradley the final game of the season is looking to be huge.
 
Win the remaining 3 home games (Valpo, Il. St. and Mo. St.) and 2 of 3 roads (NIU, UIC, and Belmont) gives 14 and a top four finish.
Winning out is not going to happen, no matter how much I want it. Pessimism aside, a much improve season, with some kind of
post-season game possible.
 
Huff77 said:
I think 15 is still the number....I think our best path is winning out and being in a 2 way tie with Belmont. If Bradley is in the mix we are pretty much toast. I feel like we lose a lot of round robin tie breakers. I think everyone has at least 2 "lose-able" games left. Can't believe there are only 3 weeks left.
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True, but we're only 9 months and 3 weeks from the start of next years season.
 
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