[November 14, 2013] Indiana State (1-0) at Belmont (1-1)

[sycamorebacker]

This is what u said----are u off your meds! lol

I thought it was funny.

 

[Sycamore Proud]

We virtually all agree on this point...

One thing I noticed about the ISU's 2nd half offensive effort- we weren't nearly as aggressive in taking RISKS, falling into the traditional ISU death trap of "playing NOT to lose" v. "playing to win." How many games did we lose LAST YEAR because of this? During the 1st half, we PUSHED the action and had a NO FEAR attitude. Not sure why the change.

It seemed the second half that we were playing not to lose instead of playing to win like we did in the first half. It seems like a lot of games are lost by playing that way. It would be interesting to know what was said and how it was said in the locker room at halftime.

 

[sycamorebacker]

You familiar w/ the concept of "in the zone" or "hot hand?"

Yes, and apparently you don't know the properties of a "hot hand." They start and stop randomly and are unpredictable. It is a definition of performance up to and including the LAST shot and means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for the next n shots.

 

[sycamorebacker]

It seemed the second half that we were playing not to lose instead of playing to win like we did in the first half. It seems like a lot of games are lost by playing that way. It would be interesting to know what was said and how it was said in the locker room at halftime.

Something must have been said to cause us to only score 46 points.

 

[Sycamore Proud]

Something must have been said to cause us to only score 46 points.

Scoring 46 points in the second half is pretty meaningless when you allow 63 for the opponent. What ever was said in our locker room seems to have worked better for Belmont that ISU. This was a team failure--players and coaches share responsibility--can't blame one more than the other.

 

[sycamorebacker]

Scoring 46 points in the second half is pretty meaningless when you allow 63 for the opponent.

My fault. I thought when you said "playing not to lose" you were talking about the offense.

 

[sycamorebacker]

What ever was said in our locker room seems to have worked better for Belmont that ISU.

I don't think the locker room had anything to do with it unless they injected them with adrenaline. The reason they scored 63 is they were 16 behind and they didn't want to lose.

 

[BankShot]

Yes, and apparently you don't know the properties of a "hot hand." They start and stop randomly and are unpredictable. It is a definition of performance up to and including the LAST shot and means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for the next nth shots.

LOL - you're such an all-around hoop "expert," perhaps you can explain the REASONING that undermines an opposing coach's decision to call a time out after a player hits the front end of a bonus FT in a tight game? Is his intent to "refresh" the shooter?

You probably think the concept of "Icing the Shooter" originated from one of the Betty Crocker Home Show demonstrations @ HC.:headscratch:

 

[sycamorebacker]

Just for future reference, my whole career was in math and statistics. If you are going to discuss birds, it's out of my area.

 

[BankShot]

OK, 'Backer...let's examine this thing ACADEMICALLY:

***Here's a study done by Cornell & Stanford-bred boyz that follows your "statistical" line of thinking. The LAST paragraph of the "study" is particularly intriguing re: the "hot hand" principle, and how so many (including myself) are "deceived" by the idea.:laugh:

http://psych.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/Gilo.Vallone.Tversky.pdf

Here's a recent study that touches upon additional factors to the "hot hand" argument:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-t...ketballs-enduring-streakiness-debate-rages-on
***Again, good closing comments (especially re: the "confidence" factor of a shooter).

Here's an article that represents basketball "popular opinion, holding that field of "statistics & probability" is unable to grasp & measure all of the mystical variables encompassed by the "hot hand" principle.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/09/05/c...ts-impossible-to-find-what-youre-looking-for/

My favorite article:

https://www.sciencenews.org/blog/co...myth-have-never-had-one?mode=blog&context=117

Includes my #1 assessment of ALL these studies:

"A hot hand “reflects a complex, subjective psychological and physiological state of mind and body” (SN: 2/2/11, p. 2). No definition based on statistics can capture that."

Just for future reference, my whole life has been associated with the SOCIAL & BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES.

 

[sycamorebacker]

Perhaps you need to take some courses in physiology & psychology to understand what happens to a shooter when he's "in the zone." To disrupt the process by "freshening" on the bench is one of the most absurd things I've ever heard.

***Here's a study done by Cornell & Stanford-bred boyz that follows 'Backers "statistical" line of thinking. The LAST paragraph of the "study" is particularly intriguing re: the "hot hand" principle, and how so many (including myself) are "deceived" by the idea.:laugh:

http://psych.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/Gilo.Vallone.Tversky.pdf

Here's a recent study that touches upon additional factors to the "hot hand" argument:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-t...ketballs-enduring-streakiness-debate-rages-on
***Again, good closing comments (especially re: the "confidence" factor of a shooter).

In a nutshell, it's clear that the field of "statistics" is unable to grasp & measure all of the mystical variables encompassed by the "hot hand" principle.

I guess the first article supports me, which is common sense and statistically-based. I didn't know there had been a controversy on this. All basketball fans should know its an old "wives tale."
The most important thing for a fan to remember (which they know by watching games) is that a "hot" streak has to end some time, by definition. Now if Smith turns out to be a 50+% plus shooter as an average, he will earn more minutes. I would need to see a replay to watch his defense, though. I can't take that all in when I'm watching the game live.

Of course there are two more huge factors in a player's FG%. What kind of shots is a able to get and how many good shots is he able to generate. It does no good to be a 60% shooter if you can't get open. Right now I'm really encouraged by Smith's play, and it looks like he has taken a giant step from last year. But the conference season will be a good test since the teams scout and know each other when they play.

What I don't understand is that why ANYONE, I mean ANYONE, would complain about substitutions hurting our offense after we lose 96-95! I would think that would be way down the list of things to be concerned about. Have you ever heard of "missing the point?" I was thinking you were a history teacher. I would think you would be really good at finding the point in something. My background is math and statistics, so I look at sporting events as heads or tails. Of course in athletics, the mental attitude might be 80% of an overall performance.

 

[BudDawgII]

Just for future reference, my whole career was in math and statistics. If you are going to discuss birds, it's out of my area.

If---this indeed is the case then u should be aware of the term probability. Your line of thinking has no bases in either math or stats! In the heat of the battle---why would u want your hottest hand on the bench---refreshing for what---when????---the game is being played and this guy is your scorer!
Don't ever recall a math lesson on"refreshing" or "freshness"!
Where I come from if u have a good horse or a hot shooter--or someone winning u money at the craps table ----the last thing u would ever do---is replace the horse---the shooter or ask the hot dice to quit throwing the dice because its someone elses turn! lol
Your logic would be like telling Bostons--Big Pappy--to take a seat at the end of the bench during a World Series game because he has been hitting the ball to hard and soon might strikeout!! Come on man-----you can't be serious!!

 

[sycamorebacker]

If---this indeed is the case then u should be aware of the term probability. Your line of thinking has no bases in either math or stats! In the heat of the battle---why would u want your hottest hand on the bench---refreshing for what---when????---the game is being played and this guy is your scorer!
Don't ever recall a math lesson on"refreshing" or "freshness"!
Where I come from if u have a good horse or a hot shooter--or someone winning u money at the craps table ----the last thing u would ever do---is replace the horse---the shooter or ask the hot dice to quit throwing the dice because its someone elses turn! lol
Your logic would be like telling Bostons--Big Pappy--to take a seat at the end of the bench during a World Series game because he has been hitting the ball to hard and soon might strikeout!! Come on man-----you can't be serious!!

Ok. Let's forget about the probabilities. Look at it this way. The substitutions are timed so the players can go "all out" for a given number of minutes and then rest. They need to KNOW they are going to get that rest so they can go 110%. Then they are replaced by fresh legs. How many times do you think a coach left a player in because he was hot and either 1) he misses his next 1-2-3 shots, 2) takes a bad shot because he is "hot", 3) he doesn't get another shot for the next 2 minutes, gets tired and gives up 3 pts on defense? How many times do you think a coach puts a fresh player in and he gets a rebound, steal, block, or bucket?

So you think, based on all of that, that a coach should know exactly, with the highest probability of out-scoring the opponent, when to sub a player.

There are times late in the game that sub patterns would be disregarded depending on matchups and the game situation and who's playing well. But the first half of the Belmont game was not one of those times.

 

[sycamorebacker]

LOL - you're such an all-around hoop "expert," perhaps you can explain the REASONING that undermines an opposing coach's decision to call a time out after a player hits the front end of a bonus FT in a tight game? Is his intent to "refresh" the shooter?

You probably think the concept of "Icing the Shooter" originated from one of the Betty Crocker Home Show demonstrations @ HC.:headscratch:

What's the matter with you?

I don't know if that is humor or your way to insult someone.