Updated: Sycamores control playoff destiny

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the johnner said:
If we pass protect and stay healthy we cruise into the playoffs. If we don't it gets dicey.

Boda, I hear what you're saying but I wouldn't mess with the routes now. Time to trust Shepherd. He's made some great calls and, given the time, we have been able to execute critical plays that have WON games. However coach, if you're reading this here's a suggestion, if the 5 offensive interior linemen can't get the job done,MAX PROTECT. Trust me if it's a two-man route or a three-man route because of the extra pass protection these receivers can get the job done. Whoever they are!!!

GO SYCAMORES BEAT THOSE DAWGS!!!
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I'm not saying toss the entire playbook but if we're not continuing to add wrinkles here and there we're going to get even more stagnant that what we have been. There is a lot of tape on us after 7 weeks and it isn't like our playbook is huge. We run a core set of plays and run them a lot -- pass to each flat, screen pass, etc.

I do fully agree with you about the max protect. I wonder if it would be different if Buske was playing as he seemed to be our blocking TE?
 

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ISUCC said:
it'll be interception city if he's still playing when they come to TH, look at their turnovers, they're the worst in the MVFC I think
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I certainly hope you're right. I would be fantastic to be able to focus on Zenner and have their QB make mistakes.
 
One down. Need 2 more wins and I think we are in, 3 is a stone cold lead pipe lock and all 4 would be gravy baby.

Sat, Nov 01 Missouri State
Sat, Nov 08 South Dakota State
Sat, Nov 15 @ Youngstown State
Sat, Nov 22 @ Western Illinois
 
Jason Svoboda said:
One down. Need 2 more wins and I think we are in, 3 is a stone cold lead pipe lock and all 4 would be gravy baby.

Sat, Nov 01 Missouri State
Sat, Nov 08 South Dakota State
Sat, Nov 15 @ Youngstown State
Sat, Nov 22 @ Western Illinois
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Not overlooking the other two, or saying we should just settle for two and cross our fingers, but I think the first and last games on the remaining schedule are very winnable. Would be very disappointed to lose to Missouri State or Western Illinois.
 
niklz62 said:
I'm hoping for 3-0 and I'll make the 4 day journey to Macomb. I'll use a car so it will only take 3:45
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LMAO

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Massey Ratings have been updated. We shot up 6 spots from 9th to 3rd in the country. Their expected wins vs. expected losses in our last 4 are 2.33 to 1.67. Their current strength of schedule for us is #1 in the nation and they expect us to finish there as well. All four of our remaining opponents are in the Massey Top 20 with Youngstown State 5th, South Dakota State 6th, Missouri State 11th and Western Illinois 18th.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&sub=11605

Here are the offensive and penalty national ranking numbers after last night. The +/- in the middle column is how many spots we jumped or fell.

Total Offense76 (+14)365.5
Rushing Offense109 (+7)95.4
Passing Offense17 (+7)270.1
Team Passing Efficiency33 (+9)138.27
Scoring Offense64 (+4)27.5
First Downs Offense77 (+13)147
Red Zone Offense74 (-20)0.788
3rd Down Conversion Pct105 (+5)0.302
4th Down Conversion PctT-23 (-7)0.636
Punt Returns94 (+3)5.6
Kickoff Returns79 (+19)18.86
Turnover MarginT-1 (+1)1.75
Time of Possession100 (+8) 28:21
Fewest Penalties Per Game78 (-8)7.25
Fewest Penalty Yards Per GameT-81 (-10)67.25

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I see a scenario where possibly only 3 MVFC teams get in. Not that this will happen, but it could. Let's say

Indiana State wins all 4, we're 9-3 overall.
ndsu and Illinois State are in for sure, that's 3 teams.

UNI, if they get to 7 wins, would be 7-5 and I don't know that gets them in.
YSU, I think they win this weekend, that puts them at 7-2, but their last 3 games are at ILS, vs. INS, and at ndsu. They could lose all 3 and end 7-5, so do they miss the post season with 3 straight losses to end the year?
sdsu, they'll lose at ndsu this weekend, then assuming we beat them they're at 5-5, their last 2 games are vs. WIU and USD, which they'll probably win, they'll end 7-5, but will only have 6 D-I wins since they played UW-Oshkosh.

if this scenario plays out does the MVFC get more than 3 teams in?

Jason Svoboda said:
One down. Need 2 more wins and I think we are in, 3 is a stone cold lead pipe lock and all 4 would be gravy baby.

Sat, Nov 01 Missouri State
Sat, Nov 08 South Dakota State
Sat, Nov 15 @ Youngstown State
Sat, Nov 22 @ Western Illinois
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We need 3 more wins to make sure of a playoff birth. We have no history that would get us in with 5 losses. Have to take care of business each week. Prove it!
 

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I agree with 3 wins. I think if we were to win 2 against the most likely teams going by rankings ect that would probably put the teams we lose to in the playoffs making us 7-5 trying to be the 5th team going 1-2 in our last 3 games. I just don't like the way that looks. And I look at 7-5 way worse than 7-4. Maybe just my weird outlook but that the feel I get when I see those records.
 
Oh and if we go 9-3, I'll be whistling zippity do da out of my a**hole

I might even go get a Sycamore tattoo which I have never had the urge and money at the same time.
 
The 7-5 Valley teams will show you what kind of lobbying the MVFC brass was able to do. If you believe Massey, Sagarin and the GPI, every 7-5 Valley team deserves to be in the field based on how dominant the Valley has been against the rest of FCS. Remember, the old loss was South Dakota's 28-20 loss on the road to a #12 ranked Montana squad that was ranked #4 when the game occurred.

If the playoff committee scoffs at any of the 7-5 Valley teams, what incentive is there for them to schedule difficult out of conference games? This is only compounded by the fact that most of our programs have to use 2 of the 12 game schedule against FBS schools to pay the bills.
 
I agree with needing 3 wins, if we just get 2, and they're against MSU & WIU, then I don't know if we make it. We need to beat sdsu or ysu, or both, which we are very capable of doing

new sycamore fan said:
We need 3 more wins to make sure of a playoff birth. We have no history that would get us in with 5 losses. Have to take care of business each week. Prove it!
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niklz62 said:
Oh and if we go 9-3, I'll be whistling zippity do da out of my a**hole

I might even go get a Sycamore tattoo which I have never had the urge and money at the same time.
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Hahaha I'm saving this and holding you to it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You all do realize that on October 31, the team still has a shot at the school record for most wins in a season? Nine is the current record we could tie by winning out (a tall order, no doubt), then win one playoff game and ISU has its first 10 win season ever! Who would have guessed back in August they would still have that opportunity this late!
 
Analyzing the Valley with 3 games to play

With all of the FCS Playoff talk, decided to break down the Valley with 3 games to play. There are still EIGHT MVFC teams that can finish the season with 7 D1 wins which again reiterates how dominant the Valley was in the non-conference slate. Before we take a team-by-team closer look, here is a reminder how the non-conference broke down for the entire Valley. The Valley's overall non-conference record was 28-11. The average score of those games were 33-19 in favor of the Valley. Here is how it broke down:

vs. FBS: 2-10 (P5 conferences: 1-1 vs. Big12, 0-6 vs. BigTen, 0-1 vs. SEC, 0-1 vs. Pac12; G5 conferences: 1-0 vs. MAC, 0-1 vs. Mtn West)
vs. Sub D1: 3-0 (2 NAIA, 1 D3)

vs. FCS: 23-1 (avg score 40-14)
vs. Big Sky: 7-1 (avg score 31-12)
vs. OVC: 6-0 (avg score 46-14)
vs. Southland: 3-0 (avg score 42-19)
vs. Big South: 1-0 (avg score 38-19)
vs. SWAC: 1-0 (avg score 62-0)
vs. NEC: 2-0 (avg score 43-23)
vs. PFL: 3-0 (avg score 42-11)

So, with that out of the way, as I mentioned, EIGHT teams can still get to seven D1 wins. With 24 spots in the FCS playoffs, you have 11 automatic bids which leaves 13 at-large berths for a possible seven Valley teams after you take our at-large out, which unless the wheels fall off will be North Dakota State. So here we go:

North Dakota State (9-0, 5-0)

Non-Conference: Wins at FBS (2-6) Iowa State, at (0-9) Weber State, vs (2-7) Incarnate Word, vs (6-3) Montana
Finishes up at (5-4) Northern Iowa, at (4-5) Missouri State, vs (7-2) Youngstown State.
Quality Wins: vs FBS Iowa State, vs Montana, vs Southern Illinois, vs Indiana State, vs South Dakota State
Bad Losses: None

Illinois State (7-1, 4-1)

Non-Conference: Wins vs (2-7) Mississippi Valley State, vs (4-5) Eastern Illinois, vs Austin Peay (1-8)
Finishes up vs (7-2) Youngstown State, at (2-7) South Dakota, vs (5-4) Southern Illinois
Quality Wins: vs South Dakota State, at Indiana State
Bad Losses: None

Youngstown State (7-2, 4-1)

Non-Conference: Loss at FBS (4-5) Illinois, Wins vs (5-4) Duquesne, vs (4-5) Butler, vs (4-5) St. Francis
Finishes up at (7-1) Illinois State, vs (6-3) Indiana State, at (9-0) North Dakota State
Quality Wins: vs Southern Illinois, at South Dakota State
Bad Losses: vs Western Illinois

Indiana State (6-3, 3-2)

Non-Conference: Loss at FBS (3-5) Indiana, Wins vs (3-6) Tennessee Tech, at FBS (3-5) Ball State, vs (6-3) Liberty
Finishes up vs (5-4) South Dakota State, at (7-2) Youngstown State, at (3-6) Western Illinois
Quality Wins: at FBS Ball State, vs Liberty, vs Northern Iowa, vs Southern Illinois
Bad Losses: None

Northern Iowa (5-4, 3-2)

Non-Conference: Losses at FBS (6-2) Iowa, FBS (3-5) Hawaii, Wins vs (3-6) Northern Colorado, vs (3-6) Tennessee Tech
Finishes up vs (9-0) North Dakota State, at (5-4) Southern Illinois, vs (4-5) Missouri State
Quality Wins: vs Illinois State
Bad Losses: None

South Dakota State (5-4, 2-3)

Non-Conference: Loss vs FBS (7-2) Missouri, Wins vs (6-3) Cal Poly, at (2-7) Southern Utah, vs D2 UW-Oshkosh
Finishes up at (6-3) Indiana State, vs (3-6) Western Illinois, vs (2-7) South Dakota
Quality Wins: at Northern Iowa
Bad Losses: None

Southern Illinois (5-4, 2-3)

Non-Conference: Wins vs NAIA Taylor, at (4-5) Eastern Illinois, vs (4-5) SE Missouri State, Loss at FBS (3-6) Purdue
Finishes at (4-5) Missouri State, vs (5-4) UNI, at (7-1) Illinois State
QUality Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

Missouri State (4-5, 1-4)

Non-Conference: Wins at (4-5) Northwestern State, vs (3-6) North Dakota, at (5-5) Central Arkansas, Loss vs FBS (5-4) Oklahoma State
Finishes at (5-4) Southern Illinois, (9-0) North Dakota State, at (5-4) Northern Iowa
Quality Wins: at Central Arkansas
Bad Losses: None

Just doing some projecting, if no "upsets" happen, here is how the Valley finishes:

North Dakota State: 12-0
Illinois State: 10-1
Youngstown State: 8-4
Indiana State: 8-4
Northern Iowa: 7-5
South Dakota State: 7-5 (Only 6 D1 wins)
Southern Illinois: 6-6
Missouri State: 4-8

I think we all know there will be some "upsets" but even if there isn't, how you don't take a 7-5 Northern Iowa that gave Illlinois State their only loss a playoff berth makes no sense. IMO, with the non-conference dominance, any Valley team that has 7 Division 1 wins should be included in the playoffs. It is likely that after the autobid that will equate to 4-5 teams. They all should go. Anything less should require a Congressional Investigation.
 
So is it worth having a discussion of what we need to have happen with the other games over the next three weeks? With the matchups that remain over the final three weeks, what teams can benefit us by winning and what teams can hurt us by winning? Or should we just focus on winning out and not even worry about what everyone else does?
 
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