Updated: Sycamores control playoff destiny

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So is it worth having a discussion of what we need to have happen with the other games over the next three weeks? With the matchups that remain over the final three weeks, what teams can benefit us by winning and what teams can hurt us by winning? Or should we just focus on winning out and not even worry about what everyone else does?

Just my opinion, they need one more win and I think they get in based on body of work and analyzing what other conferences have done this year. That is provided they don't lose to Western Illinois as that would be considered a bad loss and aren't blown out in the other two. Eight wins and they're an at large lock. Nine wins and we should have a first round home game.

The South Dakota State game is going to be HUGE especially coming off a last second win when we played pretty poorly offensively. Considering it is a MUST HAVE for them as well and our big game woes in recent years, this is definitely a PROVE IT moment.
 
and I need bragging rights over many of my coworkers for a year, come on ISU, just WIN this game!

Just my opinion, they need one more win and I think they get in based on body of work and analyzing what other conferences have done this year. That is provided they don't lose to Western Illinois as that would be considered a bad loss and aren't blown out in the other two. Eight wins and they're an at large lock. Nine wins and we should have a first round home game.

The South Dakota State game is going to be HUGE especially coming off a last second win when we played pretty poorly offensively. Considering it is a MUST HAVE for them as well and our big game woes in recent years, this is definitely a PROVE IT moment.
 
Do the FCS playoffs work that much like the NCAA tournament? Do they really give that much consideration to good losses and bad losses and what the conference has done?
 
At-Large Selection

For the 2014 NCAA Division I Football Championship, there will be 13 at-large spots available in the 24-team championship field.

Participation Procedures (Countable Competition)

For NCAA team-championship selection purposes, competition is countable only when the teams played are varsity
intercollegiate teams of four-year, degree-granting institutions that conduct a majority of their competition in that team
sport against varsity intercollegiate teams (see Constitution 3.2.4.5) of United States four-year, degree-granting institutions.

Competition against service teams, professional teams, semiprofessional teams, amateur teams, two-year colleges and
club teams shall be excluded.

NCAA SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM (NCAA SRS)

The NCAA Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for evaluating
teams for selection into the 24-team championship.

The NCAA SRS is a ranking system used to gauge team quality. Within the NCAA SRS, the rating of a team will be calculated largely by two components: a strength-of-schedule measure (SOS) and a win-loss differential (WL).

A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.

A team’s WL measure factors whether or not a game was won or lost; the location of the game (home/away/neutral site); and the NCAA (sub)division of the opponent.

1. In a game between two FCS teams played at a neutral site, the winning team gets one point and the losing team loses one point.

2. In a game between two FCS teams played at a non-neutral site, a home win counts 0.75 for the home team and -0.75 for the losing team. A road team win counts 1.25 for the visiting team and -1.25 for the home team. In other words, there is a bonus/penalty of +/- 0.25 for the home/away teams depending on the outcome.

3. An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I
opponents. For instance, a home FCS win against a Division II opponent counts only as +0.65 points (0.75 for a home
win - 0.1 penalty for playing a Division II opponent). In addition, a road FCS win against an FBS opponent counts +1.35
points for the FCS team (1.25 points for a road win + 0.1 bonus for beating an FBS opponent).

4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAA
SRS rating.

The teams’ ratings are independent in that one team’s rating depends on its opponents’ ratings, which depend on their
opponents’ ratings, etc., based on the “network” of college football games played each week during the football season. The NCAA SRS will also standardize the data in order to equalize the variance in total number of games played (i.e., 11 or 12 regular-season games).

Margin of victory is not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.

Games against Division III or non-NCAA opponents are also not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.

The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is not factored into a team’s
NCAA SRS rating.

The Football Championship Committee will begin reviewing NCAA SRS data during the later portion of the football season
as it prepares for championship selections. At that time, NCAA SRS rankings may also be posted on the NCAA website
(www.ncaa.com/fcs).

The NCAA SRS will not “force select” any teams into the championship; rather, it is one of several resources that the
Football Championship Committee will have at its disposal when debating the merits of teams under consideration for
championship selection.
 

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At-large teams shall be selected by the NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee, assisted by four regional advisory committees that serve in an advisory capacity only.

The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:

1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket. Per NCAA
Bylaw 31, the basic criteria used in the selection of at-large participants are (1) won-lost record,
(2) strength of schedule, and (3) eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship;

2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;

3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;

4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents;

5. If a committee member’s institution is under consideration, that committee member will not be allowed in the room during
discussions involving his/her team and may not vote for his/her team during the voting process. Similarly, a committee
member from a conference office may not be present during discussions, nor vote for any team from his/her conference.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf
 
Here are Sagarin Number for this week. They have the Valley as the 13th ranked conference.


13 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 62.76 63.02 ( 13) TEAMS= 10 62.89 ( 13)

College Football 2014 through games of November 1 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.17] [ 3.15] [ 3.26] [ 3.13]
28 North Dakota State AA = 79.93 9 0 54.77( 142) 0 0 | 0 0 | 78.82 31 | 76.48 38 | 83.39 22
62 Illinois State AA = 69.94 7 1 54.65( 143) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.56 57 | 68.83 71 | 69.84 66
77 Northern Iowa AA = 67.22 5 4 58.06( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.11 71 | 68.21 74 | 64.49 90
87 South Dakota State AA = 65.01 5 4 65.16( 82) 0 0 | 0 2 | 65.29 87 | 63.04 95 | 66.51 80
98 Indiana State AA = 62.53 6 3 63.44( 93) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.89 100 | 63.03 96 | 62.60 99
106 Southern Illinois AA = 61.48 5 4 59.15( 120) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.83 101 | 59.94 115 | 61.59 107
110 Youngstown State AA = 61.11 7 2 51.76( 161) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.90 118 | 59.52 117 | 64.96 89
115 Missouri State AA = 60.04 4 5 60.26( 113) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.14 110 | 61.00 106 | 59.05 118
145 Western Illinois AA = 53.90 3 6 64.57( 86) 0 0 | 0 2 | 54.78 145 | 54.20 147 | 54.33 145
171 South Dakota AA = 49.03 2 7 65.69( 76) 0 1 | 0 2 | 50.49 167 | 48.33 170 | 49.87 171

The next FCS conference ranked is the Colonial. Here are their teams:


20 COLONIAL (AA)= 50.27 50.24 ( 21) TEAMS= 12 50.24 ( 21)

College Football 2014 through games of November 1 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.17] [ 3.15] [ 3.26] [ 3.13]
73 New Hampshire AA = 68.61 7 1 50.77( 172) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.54 67 | 64.32 88 | 70.51 62
82 Villanova AA = 65.48 7 2 50.83( 171) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.00 88 | 65.43 83 | 66.76 78
94 Richmond AA = 62.81 7 2 49.67( 181) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.70 103 | 60.38 111 | 65.43 87
141 William & Mary AA = 54.73 5 4 52.19( 159) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.70 140 | 53.20 151 | 56.12 133
144 James Madison AA = 53.94 6 3 49.95( 179) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.49 149 | 52.17 155 | 56.15 132
157 Stony Brook AA = 51.50 4 5 49.31( 182) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.73 146 | 50.97 159 | 49.33 172
166 Albany-NY AA = 49.95 6 3 43.44( 211) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.66 173 | 51.18 158 | 51.82 159
185 Maine AA = 44.94 3 5 50.43( 176) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.35 187 | 43.08 192 | 47.02 181
186 Delaware AA = 44.92 5 4 42.53( 216) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.75 190 | 42.57 195 | 48.03 175
209 Towson AA = 39.84 4 5 42.42( 217) 0 0 | 0 1 | 40.66 211 | 38.16 213 | 43.11 204
221 Elon AA = 36.13 1 8 54.27( 146) 0 0 | 0 0 | 37.81 220 | 37.20 217 | 36.94 221
233 Rhode Island AA = 29.96 0 9 53.76( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.36 229 | 31.92 229 | 27.58 241

Here are just the FCS conference rankings:

13 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 62.76 63.02 ( 13) 10 62.89 ( 13)
20 COLONIAL (AA)= 50.27 50.24 ( 21) 12 50.24 ( 21)
21 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 49.88 50.69 ( 20) 6 50.24 ( 20)
22 SOUTHERN (AA)= 49.62 49.43 ( 22) 8 49.60 ( 22)
23 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 49.14 47.16 ( 25) 11 49.04 ( 23)
24 BIG SKY (AA)= 47.99 48.35 ( 23) 13 48.24 ( 24)
25 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 47.54 48.05 ( 24) 9 47.76 ( 25)
26 PATRIOT (AA)= 44.60 45.27 ( 26) 7 45.01 ( 26)
27 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 44.38 43.78 ( 27) 8 44.14 ( 27)
28 NORTHEAST (AA)= 42.30 41.98 ( 29) 7 42.16 ( 29)
29 I-AA INDEPENDENTS (AA)= 42.26 42.26 ( 28) 1 42.26 ( 28)
30 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 35.81 35.92 ( 30) 11 35.84 ( 30)
31 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 33.51 33.26 ( 31) 5 33.30 ( 31)
32 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 31.83 32.67 ( 32) 5 32.06 ( 32)
33 PIONEER (AA)= 28.69 29.16 ( 33) 11 28.91 ( 33)


Here are the entire ratings:


1 SEC-WEST (A) = 92.64 91.69 ( 1) 7 92.03 ( 1)
2 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 80.43 78.99 ( 2) 6 79.67 ( 2)
3 BIG 12 (A) = 79.39 78.89 ( 3) 10 79.15 ( 3)
4 SEC-EAST (A) = 78.54 77.99 ( 4) 7 78.33 ( 4)
5 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 74.80 75.72 ( 5) 6 75.28 ( 5)
6 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 74.07 75.02 ( 6) 7 74.52 ( 6)
7 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 74.07 73.91 ( 9) 7 74.14 ( 7)
8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 73.78 74.27 ( 7) 7 74.05 ( 8)
9 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 73.63 74.01 ( 8) 7 73.97 ( 9)
10 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 69.14 68.76 ( 10) 4 69.22 ( 10)
11 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 66.61 66.72 ( 11) 6 66.67 ( 11)
12 AMERICAN ATHLETIC (A) = 64.20 63.14 ( 12) 11 63.54 ( 12)
13 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 62.76 63.02 ( 13) 10 62.89 ( 13)
14 MWC-WEST (A) = 61.31 61.08 ( 14) 6 61.14 ( 14)
15 MAC-WEST (A) = 61.03 59.87 ( 17) 6 60.81 ( 15)
16 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 60.26 60.77 ( 15) 6 60.60 ( 16)
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 59.08 60.12 ( 16) 7 59.46 ( 17)
18 SUN BELT (A) = 56.29 56.34 ( 18) 11 56.28 ( 18)
19 MAC-EAST (A) = 53.61 53.79 ( 19) 7 53.74 ( 19)
20 COLONIAL (AA)= 50.27 50.24 ( 21) 12 50.24 ( 21)
21 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 49.88 50.69 ( 20) 6 50.24 ( 20)
22 SOUTHERN (AA)= 49.62 49.43 ( 22) 8 49.60 ( 22)
23 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 49.14 47.16 ( 25) 11 49.04 ( 23)
24 BIG SKY (AA)= 47.99 48.35 ( 23) 13 48.24 ( 24)
25 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 47.54 48.05 ( 24) 9 47.76 ( 25)
26 PATRIOT (AA)= 44.60 45.27 ( 26) 7 45.01 ( 26)
27 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 44.38 43.78 ( 27) 8 44.14 ( 27)
28 NORTHEAST (AA)= 42.30 41.98 ( 29) 7 42.16 ( 29)
29 I-AA INDEPENDENTS (AA)= 42.26 42.26 ( 28) 1 42.26 ( 28)
30 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 35.81 35.92 ( 30) 11 35.84 ( 30)
31 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 33.51 33.26 ( 31) 5 33.30 ( 31)
32 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 31.83 32.67 ( 32) 5 32.06 ( 32)
33 PIONEER (AA)= 28.69 29.16 ( 33) 11 28.91 ( 33)


http://www.sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
 
Wow thanks for all this analysis/research Jason. Let's just win all 3 and leave no doubt for us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You do realize that on Sagarin, overall, with the budget of probably 225th out of 250. We are 98th overall against all D1 schools in football?! I find that quite the feat. Go you fighting trees! Make those playoffs!!
 

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They should only get the auto-bid based on their OOC performance, but yes, that's scary. When SIU rips on their leader it says all that should need to be said, but...
 
Sycamores now in firm control of their playoff destiny. Win and you're in... it's that simple.

Team better practice like they've never practiced before. WIU is better than their record suggests and they are going to test our pass defense like nobody else has this season IMO.
 
With a win next week we are a lock. But I still feel with the win today that we are on the right side of the bubble. Are strength of schedule and the strength of the valley should trump other bubble teams.
 
If we finish 7-5, which I don't think we will, I can see a scenario where the committee takes only NDSU and UNI. Because the committee hates the MVFC. But considering we've beaten four ranked teams, including likely playoff teams UNI and Liberty, and we own a road FBS win, I think we're gonna be a lot more likely than any other 7-5 team.

Heck, let's just win next week and remove all doubt!!!
 
If we finish 7-5, which I don't think we will, I can see a scenario where the committee takes only NDSU and UNI. Because the committee hates the MVFC. But considering we've beaten four ranked teams, including likely playoff teams UNI and Liberty, and we own a road FBS win, I think we're gonna be a lot more likely than any other 7-5 team.

Heck, let's just win next week and remove all doubt!!!

No, 7-5 won't do it. South Dakota State finishes the season next week at home against South Dakota. That's pretty much an automatic win and they would finish fourth ahead of us. We'd finish 5th in the conference. I'm not even 100 percent sure 4 Valley teams make it, but really can't see five getting in. Plus, if YSU pulls the miracle upset of NDSU and we lose, we end up in 6th place. In short, no one should be feeling all that comfortable just yet.
 

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Sycamores now in firm control of their playoff destiny. Win and you're in... it's that simple.

Team better practice like they've never practiced before. WIU is better than their record suggests and they are going to test our pass defense like nobody else has this season IMO.

Plus they get to play the dreaded game wreaker role - when ya aint got a whole lot to play for playing to end someone else season is a lot to play for. They aint gonna lay over
 
Just my opinion, they need one more win and I think they get in based on body of work and analyzing what other conferences have done this year. That is provided they don't lose to Western Illinois as that would be considered a bad loss and aren't blown out in the other two. Eight wins and they're an at large lock. Nine wins and we should have a first round home game.

Glad that one win held true. WIU was not considered a bad loss in the end and the Liberty game seemed to be the one that got us over the hump since they knocked off an undefeated 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.
 
I still can't believe five MVC teams made it in. Half of the conference is participating in the FCS playoffs this year.
 
Glad that one win held true. WIU was not considered a bad loss in the end and the Liberty game seemed to be the one that got us over the hump since they knocked off an undefeated 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.

could this have been a push? they took a spot since coastal carolina still got a seed. they would have been 7-5.

hard to say.
 
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