This is spot on^
About 20%-30% of teams will be competing for a championship (either regular season or tournament) that means 70%-80% of the time you are middling or at the bottom. Neither is good for a program, but chances are you are going to be there at some point. I love the Valley and think it works very well because the teams naturally fit with one another and are all regional. Shockers sold their souls and now they are finding out. Look at who is coming to Koch arena:
Great games:
Memphis - This is literally the only bright spot in the AAC these days.
Good games:
Temple - old school Big East fans appreciate the owls
Florida Atlantic - a lot of recency bias here
Tulsa - they are horrible but it makes sense for Shockers to pair up with them
UAB - Solid basketball school
No-interest games:
Tulane - Not a horrible program but not sure the interest it brings
UTSA - This is bad
North Texas - solid basketball but I don't think it moves any needle
South Florida - yuck
Rice - yuck
East Carolina - double yuck
Charlotte - no interest
At the end of the day Shockers are trying to cash in being with Memphis. UAB & Tulsa seem to "fit" WSU and I could see natural interest with those programs. Temple is kind of fun for old school basketball fans and FAU is a sexy new name (we will see how long it lasts). But outside of that there is hardly any fan interest or engagement with the other 7 programs in that league. That's 14 games a year of just "blah", that's enough to kill a fanbase if you are aren't winning championships
I'll try this with ISU for my personal views in order.
High interest games:
1) Ill St- the battle of the ISU's
2) SIU- When I started following ISU as a little kid they were one of the top dogs in the MVC and made a Sweet 16.
3) Bradley- see SIU above
4) Murray State- At least in my lifetime they've always had a very solid program more times than not.
Medium Interest Games:
5) N Iowa- Used to be high for me, but they haven't been quite as good in recent years.
6) Drake- Recency bias since they've been good lately. Normally they'd be on the lower end for me. I still remember when it was called "Drake Night".
7) Evansville- On the lower end of my medium interest due to how awful they've been lately.
Low interest games:
8) Valpo- See Evansville, except in my lifetime there hasn't been a whole lot of history there.
9) Belmont- Quality program, but haven't followed them long enough to really care a whole lot about them yet.
10) UIC- At least until this season they've been a lousy program that doesn't have any fans. They'll be last for the foreseeable future on my interest list unless they turn into Loyola 2.0.
*11) Mo State- They're leaving the league. Simple as that. My only interest is that they don't win any kind of conference title on the way out and that we don't lose to them again.