[December 30, 2023] Indiana State (11-1) at Michigan State (6-5)

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SycamoreStateofMind said:
I understand the logic but I refuse to go into this game assuming we are just going to get screwed by the officials… Last years team, maybe. This years team has played through calls all year - so they are not going to let that dictate how we play (hopefully). I feel like a team can allow officials to dictate the outcome of the game if they let a couple bad calls spiral. Over the course of the game you’re not going to get all the calls - neither is Michigan State.

So I’m not buying into the officials will not let us win this game. But I will tell you this - if you go into the game expecting that to happen you’re going to find it very easy to think and feel that way every bad call we get. Like you’re (anyone who is expecting this) already created an excuse narrative. I’m good. I don’t need an excuse to guard my heart into some false front about this team - if we want an at-large bid this is a must-win game. It’s as simple as that.

Does it close the door on an at-large? Certainly no… But it does make the margin for error in the Valley very thin. The bottom line is great teams will overcome bad officiating 9 times out of 10.
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I'm not calling it being screwed, I'm just calling it a home whistle against lesser opponents. Removing Wisconsin, they get a 8 FTA disparity at home versus those lesser opponents. They average 23.4 FTA in those games and give up 15.4 FTA and at a 70% FT% clip, you need to make up 3 buckets in an average game there.

In their 2 home losses (JMU and Wisconsin), they hit 1 and 6 3FG while JMU hit 8 and Wisconsin hit 10. Also, in those games, the FT disparity was only +2 against JMU and was actually -9 to Wisconsin.

That is why I'm of the belief we need to likely hit 15 3FG due to our interior defense not being the best and we'll be giving up a lot of length down there, too. We've done it once and was close two other times -- 16 versus Rice and 14 against Bradley and Southern Indiana. One wildcard here is if Swope/Ju can somehow force TOs from their guards and get us some extra possessions.

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One other thing that is pretty crazy in looking at their boxes is the steal and block numbers in some of those games. Fifteen steals against Baylor? Our high was 10 against SMWC. 10-12 turnovers should be the goal and if we're in single digits, I'd be shocked if we lost unless we just couldn't throw it into the ocean from outside.
 
EvilleSycamore said:
So can i remind ya of this Saturday when you post about a bad call! :ROFLMAO: Im just having fun with ya, some good natured ribbing.... :ROFLMAO: I am bored as piss here at work, literally there is me and one other person here, the rest took the week off so gotta amuse myself to keep from being bored to death.
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Well you can remind me but since I will be at the game I won’t be live posting which is usually a good thing… Those live posts don’t always age well.

You can certainly remind me after if we get a bad whistle. I just sincerely think we will win the game and if we don’t win the game I don’t think the officials will be the reason. Hopeful on both fronts anyway.
 
Jason Svoboda said:
I'm not calling it being screwed, I'm just calling it a home whistle against lesser opponents. Removing Wisconsin, they get a 8 FTA disparity at home versus those lesser opponents. They average 23.4 FTA in those games and give up 15.4 FTA and at a 70% FT% clip, you need to make up 3 buckets in an average game there.

In their 2 home losses (JMU and Wisconsin), they hit 1 and 6 3FG while JMU hit 8 and Wisconsin hit 10. Also, in those games, the FT disparity was only +2 against JMU and was actually -9 to Wisconsin.

That is why I'm of the belief we need to likely hit 15 3FG due to our interior defense not being the best and we'll be giving up a lot of length down there, too. We've done it once and was close two other times -- 16 versus Rice and 14 against Bradley and Southern Indiana. One wildcard here is if Swope/Ju can somehow force TOs from their guards and get us some extra possessions.

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Look, I fully expect them to get some favorable calls. But I’m just saying - that expecting it to dictate the outcome of the game is a completely different thing to say on several fronts.

As for shooting the ball - yeah I think we’re going to have to come in a shoot the ball pretty well from the perimeter. I also think we’re going to have to get some contribution off the bench.

1. Is Gray eligible or yet to be determined?

2. Can Wolfe give us some good spot minutes - especially defensively vs a P5 opponent these are the type of games you need his experience to show up.

3. Vorst? He’s fallen out of favor of late - guessing mostly matchup related but will be interesting to see if he can give us any kind of a lift off the bench.

Just feel like you’re going to need some contributions (to impact winning) someone outside the starting 5.

And then finally to your point we’ve got to find a way to be disruptive on D. Got to get them turning it over a little bit and hope the ball starts to stick - I think if we can be somewhat disruptive to them on the defensive end it will certainly help what we are trying to do in transition and offensively.
 
1. I think this line will be around 9.5.

2. If we can just hit our FG%, 3FG%, and 3s made per game averages on the year, we'll be in this game for sure...and likely cover, if not win it.
 

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If they referee it like a big10 game we're gonna get mugged on every shot inside at least.Just have to play through it and hope it goes both ways. We have to play a very good game not perfect to win. Turnovers on us for easy baskets could be fatal. Really expect these players to not be intimidated at all but still have to make 3s.
 
In addition to the recent/semi-recent P5 games that SSOM and Treeman have mentioned, I’ll throw out there the less-recent games of Lansing’s early tenure…when we beat Vanderbilt and Notre Dame in true road games.

Soooo looking forward to Saturday.
 
TreeTop said:
In addition to the recent/semi-recent P5 games that SSOM and Treeman have mentioned, I’ll throw out there the less-recent games of Lansing’s early tenure…when we beat Vanderbilt and Notre Dame in true road games.

Soooo looking forward to Saturday.
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Around that Vanderbilt game was likely the last time we were getting votes for top 25
 
sycamore_21 said:
Around that Vanderbilt game was likely the last time we were getting votes for top 25
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You're probably right the only other times that we were ever in the discussion was in 2013 when we were 16-8 but had wins over: ole miss (SEC tourney champs with Marshall Henderson), Miami (who was a #1 seed that year), @ #14 Wichita, and drubbed #16 Creighton. We also had an overtime heart breaker against #17 New Mexico at Hulman. Amazing what happens when you get opportunities against top tier competition on neutral or home court
 

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claimsman said:
Anyone have a line on tickets for the MSU game? I need three.
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I'm at 941 315 1691, Ive got three upper deck section 213-row 19. We were considering not going, due to a conflict, call and see if we can work something out. Mark
 
MSU head coach Tom izzo on indiana state-

"Things change rather quickly most people think they change in the big ten, but I have done some weird scheduling and this one is different this team is good they got 5 guys including there center who shoot over 40 from three. This is a good progession for us going into big ten play because they are better then most big ten teams so we will see"
 

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Kind of a fun factoid. We've played MSU twice, our combined record leading into the games 44-1.
 
Haslametrics has us 10 point dogs and predicts a final score of 77-67. There are some troubling metrics in those "In Possession" charts, too. Limiting Michigan State's offensive rebounding is going to be critical it looks like. They are among the best in the nation for second chance conversions and we've struggled squeezing boards in some games.

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