[December 30, 2023] Indiana State (11-1) at Michigan State (6-5)

[Jason Svoboda]

Great write-up... He predicted them to win - but even he wasn't convinced.

Michigan State basketball vs. Indiana State tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

Columnist Graham Couch previews MSU's basketball game against Indiana State on Saturday, including matchup analysis, how to watch, and his prediction.

www.lansingstatejournal.com

81-73 is a pretty respectful final score from an opponent's beat writer.

Sparty's defensive metrics are off the charts compared to anyone we've played this year so it will be interesting to see if our shooting can negate whatever they're doing in that arena.

 

[EvilleSycamore]

81-73 is a pretty respectful final score from an opponent's beat writer.

Sparty's defensive metrics are off the charts compared to anyone we've played this year so it will be interesting to see if our shooting can negate whatever they're doing in that arena.

One thing to point out is the metrics are with their best defensive guard in Fears being in the line-up. We won't see him thankfully. I think the deciding factor will be the matchup of Tyson Walker vs. Julian Larry and Swope. Walker hasn't faced pressure like these two can bring at all this year. I hope they are on lockdown mode D wise, it will make this a nail biter.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

One thing to point out is the metrics are with their best defensive guard in Fears being in the line-up. We won't see him thankfully. I think the deciding factor will be the matchup of Tyson Walker vs. Julian Larry and Swope. Walker hasn't faced pressure like these two can bring at all this year. I hope they are on lockdown mode D wise, it will make this a nail biter.

I looked at their stats the other day... I think he only averaged like 12-15mpg so while he was a factor, I'm not sure he was that big to the machine. Their team stats they were like Top 40 (I think) in scoring defensive, Top 20 (I think) in defensive FG%, etc. -- that takes a team commitment for 40 minutes or they've had some really bad opponents skew it.

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

I looked at their stats the other day... I think he only averaged like 12-15mpg so while he was a factor, I'm not sure he was that big to the machine. Their team stats they were like Top 40 (I think) in scoring defensive, Top 20 (I think) in defensive FG%, etc. -- that takes a team commitment for 40 minutes or they've had some really bad opponents skew it.

I was going to say...

Southern Indiana is 3-10
Alcorn State 1-12
Georgia Southern 0-12
Oakland 6-8

4 of the 7 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 10-42... So they are for sure being propped up by some pretty terrible teams. Outside of those really easy games the rest of the slate has been a gauntlet - Duke, Wisconsin, Butler, Zona, Baylor.

 

[EvilleSycamore]

I looked at their stats the other day... I think he only averaged like 12-15mpg so while he was a factor, I'm not sure he was that big to the machine. Their team stats they were like Top 40 (I think) in scoring defensive, Top 20 (I think) in defensive FG%, etc. -- that takes a team commitment for 40 minutes or they've had some really bad opponents skew it.

I had seen a couple reports early on where Izzo called Fears his best defender. If the line is 11.5 like this guy says I may have to send a little money down the road from ya Jason and see what happens. This game will come down to which team shows up to play. if we show up and they don't look out!

 

[EvilleSycamore]

I was going to say...

Southern Indiana is 3-10
Alcorn State 1-12
Georgia Southern 0-12
Oakland 6-8

4 of the 7 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 10-42... So they are for sure being propped up by some pretty terrible teams. Outside of those really easy games the rest of the slate has been a gauntlet - Duke, Wisconsin, Butler, Zona, Baylor.

add Tennessee in there too on the gauntlet list.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

I was going to say...

Southern Indiana is 3-10
Alcorn State 1-12
Georgia Southern 0-12
Oakland 6-8

4 of the 7 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 10-42... So they are for sure being propped up by some pretty terrible teams. Outside of those really easy games the rest of the slate has been a gauntlet - Duke, Wisconsin, Butler, Zona, Baylor.

And Wisconsin beat the breaks off of them.

Execution and hitting shots is all that matters tomorrow. Here's to our guys getting a good night of sleep and the rims looking like hula hoops tomorrow.

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

add Tennessee in there too on the gauntlet list.

That was an exhibition game - I don't think it counted towards overall record. But sure.

 

[EvilleSycamore]

SO HCJS said on the drivetime interview we are getting $100K to go there and play, Interesting, they have played 10 games at home including exhibition. They are definitely shelling out some cash to stay at home. Their other three games were in Chicago, Detroit and Arizona, essentially ONE road game.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

SO HCJS said on the drivetime interview we are getting $100K to go there and play, Interesting, they have played 10 games at home including exhibition. They are definitely shelling out some cash to stay at home. Their other three games were in Chicago, Detroit and Arizona, essentially ONE road game.

This is the point I always make regarding buy games and how P5 schools nearly guarantee they are always in the NCAA tournament.

Their goal every year is to buy 8-10 wins in the non-conference and then as long as they go .500 in conference play, they're essentially guaranteed a NCAA tournament invite due to how the NET/Quad system works as they can trade higher quad wins in their conference H/H play.

 

[SycamoreBlue3209]

This is the point I always make regarding buy games and how P5 schools nearly guarantee they are always in the NCAA tournament.

Their goal every year is to buy 8-10 wins in the non-conference and then as long as they go .500 in conference play, they're essentially guaranteed a NCAA tournament invite due to how the NET/Quad system works as they can trade higher quad wins in their conference H/H play.

If I'm JS or any mid-major coach for that matter, I'm taking a minimum of 2 P5's every year plus a 3 game MTE. Make your money from the P5 games that more than pay for the expense of MTE travel.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

If I'm JS or any mid-major coach for that matter, I'm taking a minimum of 2 P5's every year plus a 3 game MTE. Make your money from the P5 games that more than pay for the expense of MTE travel.

Yeah, that is generally a good rule of thumb. However, I've been watching the other top mid-major schedules and most of them made it to 6-7 home games in their non-conference. I'd like to see us find a way to get there.

Another thing I was blown away by is go back and look at Gonzaga's schedule distribution over the last 3-4 years. I think they have found a cheat code where they have almost a P5 level of road games on their schedules and basically have become neutral court kings.

I'd like to find a way for us to get where 20 wins is the default season even by going slightly above .500 in league play. I think you can schedule hack your way there.

 

[SycamoreBlue3209]

Very interesting 14:40 - I don't follow Michigan St. don't know much about them. But given that these guys clearly do and they mention one of Michigan State's weaknesses is PF/C position and that is one of Indiana State's strengths. Why that's interesting? Going against a B10 P5 team one would typically worry about athletic ability and length at the PF/C position limiting our ability to score at the rim, limiting Robbie's ability to score in a variety of ways and also what happens if he gets in foul trouble?! Maybe - doesn't sound like a huge concern.

They do go on to say that this could be a breakout game for the big men... We will see.

I wouldn't say I follow them closely, but have always had a lot of respect for Izzo and the toughness his teams play with. As I stated earlier, Robbie's matchup with there bigs will be very interesting. Sissoko doesn't want to guard 3 feet behind the 3 point line. I think Robbie can use his handles to exploit him and force help defense to open up the passing lanes for cutters.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

I wouldn't say I follow them closely, but have always had a lot of respect for Izzo and the toughness his teams play with. As I stated earlier, Robbie's matchup with there bigs will be very interesting. Sissoko doesn't want to guard 3 feet behind the 3 point line. I think Robbie can use his handles to exploit him and force help defense to open up the passing lanes for cutters.

If there was ever a game where we needed to inflict pace and space, this is it. Spread them out to make them smaller.

I don't know where JD is at with the staff right now, but this is a game where his downhill bruiser play could actually come in handy.

 

[Pendleton_alum]

I haven’t been this pumped up for a game since we welcomed Archie to Assembly Hall. Excited to see how many Sycamore fans we have making the trip up.

 

[EvilleSycamore]

If there was ever a game where we needed to inflict pace and space, this is it. Spread them out to make them smaller.

I don't know where JD is at with the staff right now, but this is a game where his downhill bruiser play could actually come in handy.

JD and Vorst could get some run in the bruiser role as long as Coach doesn't live or die with Gray off the bench. If we get down to where Augustanis is in the game things have gone really really bad. And for the love of God, please keep Miller on the bench, their guards will eat him alive!

 

[pbutler218]

If there was ever a game where we needed to inflict pace and space, this is it. Spread them out to make them smaller.

I don't know where JD is at with the staff right now, but this is a game where his downhill bruiser play could actually come in handy.

I too would like to see JD get some run. I think he'd help on the boards plus he's capable of taking it to the hoop. He's a lefty with long arms who "might" catch MSU off-guard a bit.

 

[Huff77]

Not gonna lie...I was thinking of a JD, AG and Jabo second team bruise-a-thon myself

 

[ISUCC]

MSU favored by 10

 

[BallyPie]

Draftkings has MS - 10