[January 11, 2021] Indiana State (4-6) vs. Loyola (7-3)

[Sycamorefan96]

I guess the 63 point thing got dismantled last night. The fact is that if a team can't score 63 points in a game it generally means they are having an off night or they aren't very good. In this case Loyola played bad and we played even worse. The fact we even beat them at all is surprising. I'm not sure if Loyola was just having a bad weekend or if they are just not as good as usual.

 

[TreeTop]

Since we were within striking distance the entire game, it made the game watchable. Sadly, I'll take it.

 

[Hooper]

I think if you told most fans at the beginning of the season we would split with Loyola they'd say they'd take it.

I'm staying optimistic at the risk of being Pollyannish...lots of winnable games coming up.

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

Look - nothing that happened Sunday or last night changes these facts:

1. Roster makeup is poor. Collectively this group just doesn't shoot it that well. They caught fire Sunday as a group and it allowed them to get a much needed win. Everyone wants to talk about Key putting up 31 and that's great. But they got big second half contributions from Barnes off the bench and a couple buckets from Larry who should be coming off the bench.

2. They've played a pretty tough schedule - you can't just ignore that fact. I'm not giving them a free pass because they've looked really bad in a lot of these games - but to Hooper point above the schedule does get a little easier. You would hope with the split here they go into some future series knowing they can hang.

3. To that point it doesn't change the fact that this team is shook and lacks confidence. They look about the same to me as they looked in the D2 opener... A poor shooting team that doesn't make up for that poor shooting with great athletic ability.

4. Tyreke Key has to get to the free throw line. If he's not going to attack the rim and try and force this issue this team is ALWAYS going to struggle. But he's not just going to wake up one day and become a consistent scoring start - it's just not in his DNA. He's always going to let the game come to him and the end result is the end result...

5. Scoring over ___ # of points in a conference game is rubbish. Plenty of MVC teams in recent past that got national praise played grind it out games like you watched last night. You can't be an MVC homer fan in one sentence and then in the next sentence not appreciate a defensive struggle. If you watched that game and didn't see guys on both teams flying around then you were not watching - it was our best defensive effort of the season by far. You don't go 9-17 from the FT line and that is a little different game in the last 2 minutes.

6. Lansing and Jake L have to figure something out... He played good for maybe the last 5 minutes of the game last night. Other than that - I have no idea what I was watching. I can't stress enough - if he's going to play on the perimeter he has to shoot open shots. We scored 48 points last night and he passed up 10 open shots. It can't happen - not in a game where you shoot 16-45 from the field... Those open 3's he was passing up were better looks than we were getting in the paint.

7. I will stress again because I will not forgive myself if I don't say this. If Hankins can't play on this roster (and I think he can) then I'm not sure what roster he can play on?? I will never agree with the reasons that Lansing has for not playing him - I don't get it.

8. As has been pointed out - Larry and Jake can't be on the floor at the same time if neither are going to be a threat to shoot.

That is all... Have a wonderful rest of the week!

 

[BankShot]

I guess the 63 point thing got dismantled last night. The fact is that if a team can't score 63 points in a game it generally means they are having an off night or they aren't very good. In this case Loyola played bad and we played even worse. The fact we even beat them at all is surprising. I'm not sure if Loyola was just having a bad weekend or if they are just not as good as usual.

After glancing @ their schedule prior to the ISU series, you might have a point.

 

[DyedBlue]

8. As has been pointed out - Larry and Jake can't be on the floor at the same time if neither are going to be a threat to shoot.

Many years ago, I calculated +/- for our players each game. A lot of work so I quit doing it. But this comment caught my eye, so I thought I would do this simple check to determine how the team performed when Laravia or Larry or both were on the floor in the second Loyola game since that was used as confirmation for the above comment.

Julian Larry registered a +1 for the game in a 10 point loss.
Jake Laravia registered a -2 for the game in a 10 point loss.
For the times when they were both in the game together, ISU outscored Loyola by 4. The team performance suffered during the 26 minutes when they were both not on the floor.

So, I remain mystified and awaiting data that support the conclusion they should not be in the game at the same time.

Larry appears to be the quickest Sycamore and gaining comfort with each passing game.

 

[DyedBlue]

I decided to take a look at the other three starters plus Miller and Howard

Key 33 minutes -8
Neese 29-30 minutes -12
Williams 30 minutes -4
Miller 22-23 minutes -6
Howard 19-20 minutes -13

I have an hour, so I shall take a look at Loyola game 1 and get back with data on these same 7 players.

 

[SycamoreStateofMind]

Many years ago, I calculated +/- for our players each game. A lot of work so I quit doing it. But this comment caught my eye, so I thought I would do this simple check to determine how the team performed when Laravia or Larry or both were on the floor in the second Loyola game since that was used as confirmation for the above comment.

Julian Larry registered a +1 for the game in a 10 point loss.
Jake Laravia registered a -2 for the game in a 10 point loss.
For the times when they were both in the game together, ISU outscored Loyola by 4. The team performance suffered during the 26 minutes when they were both not on the floor.

So, I remain mystified and awaiting data that support the conclusion they should not be in the game at the same time.

Larry appears to be the quickest Sycamore and gaining comfort with each passing game.

Well first thank you for going to the trouble to do that work... You certainly didn't need to take it that extra step to discuss with me - but it makes for a better discussion.

I would have never come to that conclusion last year... I never thought I'd come to that conclusion this year. It has way more to do with Laravia than it does Larry who is a True Freshman and shouldn't be in this position to begin with 2 SR PG's ahead of him to start the season prior to the Bacot departure.

You analytic the game to death if you want. Laravia played 31 minutes so I'm really not that interested in comparing his +/- with another player on the floor at the same time to come to any sort of a conclusion. I am going to go with my own eyes and repeat that Laravia passed up at least 10 wide open 3's (the commentators were discussing it as well) in a game where we couldn't buy a basket - getting clean looks was very difficult. Laravia can't afford to be passive with Larry on the floor - because Larry is very limited on O. Since you are a +/- guy look at the thread where Jason updates +/- on the season and you can see how Larry looks. We can't have 2 passive guys on the perimeter at the same time - it can't happen.

The result last night was - no inside outside game. Sure Tre Williams had his hands full with Krutwig - whatever. It still allows for the best defensive players on the team to focus in on Key and Neese. Not to mention the amount they sag off Laravia and Larry makes for a pretty crowded and bogged down offensive possession. The +/- does nothing to illustrate this - you either saw the same things as I did or you saw something else.

As for Larry - he's a raw true freshman. He's going to look better with each passing game. He was also guarding a player of similar stature - it was a decent matchup for them as that Loyola guard wasn't overly quick, strong or athletic. Larry has a long way to go. He shouldn't be starting in my opinion.

 

[DyedBlue]

Game 2 continued
Barnes 12 minutes -10 so neutral in a 10 point loss

Game 1 a 5 point win. Much above 30 minutes, the +/- should get close to the game differential
Neese 35 minutes +5
Key 36.5 minutes +10
Larry 23 minutes +18
Williams 9 minutes 0
Laravia 38.5 minutes +7
Miller 21 minutes -11 (was -11 during the four minute collapse in first half)
Howard 18.5 minutes +1 (also -11 during same first half collapse but was positive in every other segment)
Barnes 23.5 minutes +3 (very strong game in the box score but ISU was only +3 when he was on the floor)

At least for these two most recent games, the team is playing its best with Julien Larry running the show and providing harassing defense.

 

[DyedBlue]

I understand your point about Laravia passing up wide open shots. It frustrates everyone, but I expect until he is making 35-40% of the uncontested shots in practice he us probably on a short leash during the game. With him 20+ feet from the basket, a miss is probably a defensive rebound.

I thought he got fouled numerous times on his drives and nothing was called. That is an important part of his game.

I think we both agree that for this team to reach its potential, both Larry and Laravia need to continue to grow their games which will open things up for Key, Nees, Williams and others.

If I continue to have some free time, I might chart her FG percentage versus time on the shot clock. Most years, the ISU half court offense is sluggish and takes way too many shots at <15 seconds on the clock and when it does that the percentage is usually low 30% or less and few offensive rebounds result. I kept that data real time from my seat for several years and it was striking: low percentage when clock was allowed to run down and about 60% when shooting with more than 15 on the clock (throwing out any breakaway layups). Harder to do from the game reconstruct but without games to attend, I need some sort of lifeline to the team and action.

 

[Jason Svoboda]

I understand your point about Laravia passing up wide open shots. It frustrates everyone, but I expect until he is making 35-40% of the uncontested shots in practice he us probably on a short leash during the game. With him 20+ feet from the basket, a miss is probably a defensive rebound.

I thought he got fouled numerous times on his drives and nothing was called. That is an important part of his game.

I think we both agree that for this team to reach its potential, both Larry and Laravia need to continue to grow their games which will open things up for Key, Nees, Williams and others.

If I continue to have some free time, I might chart her FG percentage versus time on the shot clock. Most years, the ISU half court offense is sluggish and takes way too many shots at <15 seconds on the clock and when it does that the percentage is usually low 30% or less and few offensive rebounds result. I kept that data real time from my seat for several years and it was striking: low percentage when clock was allowed to run down and about 60% when shooting with more than 15 on the clock (throwing out any breakaway layups). Harder to do from the game reconstruct but without games to attend, I need some sort of lifeline to the team and action.

Not sure if your calcs are SPM or BPM. SPM is an alright measure, BPM is far superior. I still prefer PER because it takes into account your actions and doesn't penalize you as much for who you were on the floor with. Also PM is heavily depending on opposing personnel. But I digress. In any event, I think your short leash comments means the coaching staff failed because they essentially set Jake up to fail.

If he has a short lease getting wide open looks beyond the arc, he shouldn't be tasked with bringing the ball up the floor or high ball screen handoffs. You have to put the ball in his hands free throw line in. Some may counter that he can use his dribbling and speed against his opponents but that has proven not to be the case and has led to him picking up unnecessary fouls being out of control.

I like advanced analytics and the eyeball test. Last night even if they had a positive +/-, offense was stagnant. This can also easily be explained away that someone else on the floor carried the load and/or the defense was marginally better than the opponents offense or the opponent was shooting poorly. Loyola shot like 20% under their yearly average in that first half and that would be considered a statistical anomaly.

In any event, we need to tweak our base offense because it just isn't working unless we're having either 1) an above average shooting team event or 2) one of our guys is having a season high type of effort. We can't just play though our normal offense and expect an efficient output consistently and that's on coaching to find a workaround for their personnel.

 

[DyedBlue]

Adjusted to < 10 seconds on the shot clock now that the shot clock is reduced from 35 to 30 seconds.

What surprised me in these data are that ISU commits so many turnovers early in possessions. Eliminate those combined with the higher shooting percentage and the sun would shine a lot brighter.

Our pace of play is not as slow as in years past; however, the turnovers

Vs. Loyola Game 1:

<10 seconds on shot clock
First Half 2/8 drawing one foul, getting 1 offensive rebound and committing 1 turnover
Second Half: 4/9 drawing no fouls, 2 offensive rebounds and 0 turnover
Total: 6/17 drawing one foul, 3 offensive boards and only 1 turnover

>10 seconds on shot clock
First Half: 9/14 drawing no fouls, committing 4 turnovers, 0 offensive rebounds
Second Half: 7/17 drawing 7 fouls, committing 2 turnovers, 5 offensive rebounds
combined: 16/31 drawing 7 fouls (mostly at end of game), 6 turnovers, 5 offensive rebounds

Vs. Loyola Game 2:

<10 Seconds on shot clock:
First Half 2/8 drawing 0 fouls, with 0 turnovers and 1 offensive rebound
Second Half: 2/5 drawing drawing 4 fouls with 2 turnovers and 2 offensive rebounds
Totals: 4/13 drawing 4 fouls, committing 2 turnovers and getting 3 offensive rebounds

> 10 seconds on shot clock

First Half 6/15 drawing 5 fouls, committing 7 turnovers and getting 4 offensive rebounds
Second Half 5/15 drawing 0 fouls, committing 3 turnovers and getting 3 offensive rebounds
Total 11/30 drawing 5 fouls, committing 10 turnovers and getting 7 boards.