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I've been paying pretty close attention to this. My prediction is that Oregon and Washington will get into the Big Ten at a reduced payout rate. I don't think Stanford and Cal will make the cut.

1) Oregon and Washington are in the top 4 of Pac-12 attendance, while Stanford and Cal are near the bottom.

2) Athletically Oregon and Washington both make a lot of sense, while Cal and Stanford make less sense. All 4 schools are AAU academically.

3) USC and UCLA are by far the two biggest college football programs in the state of California. The Big Ten doesn't need the San Francisco market, because they already have the entire state locked up.

Conclusion: If I am the Big Ten I add Oregon and Washington at a reduced rate and hold at 18. If Notre Dame ever starts flirting with joining then you can use Notre Dame's historic rival Stanford as leverage and bring them in to go to 20 if necessary.
I've been hot on this since September of last year 4Q. Looks like the Big Ten is doing what I thought they should do.
 

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Looks like this is almost official now too.


PAC down to 4 with Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State. An FBS league must have at least 8 full members to remain a league.

Things to consider:

PAC still has autonomy (not sure if that can be withdrawn by the other power leagues).

MWC Exit Fee (for 2024 PAC admittance): $34,000,000
AAC Exit Fee: $18,000,000 for early exit (see Cincy, Houston, and UCF)

Annual MWC TV Distributions per school: $4,000,000
Annual AAC TV Distributions per school: $7,000,000
Annual PAC TV Distributions per school: ???

I guess the 18-34 million dollar question is if you're in the MWC or AAC is it really worth it to leave for the Pac-4?
 
Maybe Hawaii should be a more attractive get for a conference. I sometimes enjoy waking up on Sunday morning and getting to see the end of whatever game started at 11 pm their time.
 
What a crazy turn of events the past week. Can't believe the BigXII didn't want Stanford; Great academics, one of the best overall athletic departments, Deeeep pockets, California market. I would hate to see the MWC break-up, that conference just fits together so perfectly.

- It's all about the $$$$ so at what point do conferences start kicking out members?
- Is this the shake up NDSU, SDSU, Montana, Montana State need to move to the FBS?
- West Coast shakeups don't happen too often, is Gonzaga in position to move on from the WCC?
 

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What a crazy turn of events the past week. Can't believe the BigXII didn't want Stanford; Great academics, one of the best overall athletic departments, Deeeep pockets, California market. I would hate to see the MWC break-up, that conference just fits together so perfectly.

- It's all about the $$$$ so at what point do conferences start kicking out members?
- Is this the shake up NDSU, SDSU, Montana, Montana State need to move to the FBS?
- West Coast shakeups don't happen too often, is Gonzaga in position to move on from the WCC?

The FBS continues to congeal at the top -- what are the Dakotas and Montanas to gain by moving up to a non-Power 5 FBS?

Why would Gonzaga leap from the WCC?

ALL of these moves are FOOTBALL related - only U. San Diego plays football, little chance the Toreros leap to FBS
 
I've been hot on this since September of last year 4Q. Looks like the Big Ten is doing what I thought they should do.
Good to see all of the Big Ten presidents and Conf leadership listened to you

Ducks and Huskies were meeting with the big ten months ago - there shouldn't be any surprises here
 
What a crazy turn of events the past week. Can't believe the BigXII didn't want Stanford; Great academics, one of the best overall athletic departments, Deeeep pockets, California market. I would hate to see the MWC break-up, that conference just fits together so perfectly.

- It's all about the $$$$ so at what point do conferences start kicking out members?
- Is this the shake up NDSU, SDSU, Montana, Montana State need to move to the FBS?
- West Coast shakeups don't happen too often, is Gonzaga in position to move on from the WCC?
My guess is that Stanford and Cal probably don't want to be associated with the Big 12 because of academics. They'd go independent and turn the Pac into a non-football league before they join the B12 or MWC.
 
My guess is that Stanford and Cal probably don't want to be associated with the Big 12 because of academics. They'd go independent and turn the Pac into a non-football league before they join the B12 or MWC.

No they wouldn't because they would be suicide for their athletic programs. Without a conference, you lost AQ opportunity as well as NCAA tournament units. With them losing the Pac12 media money here shortly, they would be forced to subsidize athletics 100% while their recruiting would fall the fuck off due to lack of prestige. They would join the Big 12 as a last resort.

I've got to think they are begging the Big1000 to call them back.
 
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It would be great if the Big conference required new members to add a certain number of conference sponsored sports that they may not already have, men and women’s wrestling and men and women’s hockey for example. But, it won’t happen, instead Olympic sports will unfortunately continue to face the chopping block. The bleakest era of ISU athletics was when they dropped wrestling and gymnastics to mistakingly elevate the football program.
 
No they wouldn't because they would be suicide for their athletic programs. Without a conference, you lost AQ opportunity as well as NCAA tournament units. With them losing the Pac12 media money here shortly, they would be forced to subsidize athletics 100% while their recruiting would fall the fuck off due to lack of prestige. They would join the Big 12 as a last resort.

I've got to think they are begging the Big1000 to call them back.
I just don't see them putting down their pride to join the Big 12 which they view as way beneath them. If anything they will try to get Rice, Tulane, and some other AAU and highly rated R1 institutions to join the PAC-4. The Big Ten would be stupid to add either school.
 
I just don't see them putting down their pride to join the Big 12 which they view as way beneath them. If anything they will try to get Rice, Tulane, and some other AAU and highly rated R1 institutions to join the PAC-4. The Big Ten would be stupid to add either school.

The problem is no matter who they can get to join, they won't be able to sign another media rights deal. The money is key here. Cal's yearly athletics budget is over $115 million dollars. Right now looking at KCDB, they school subsidizes 25%, donors 15% and 0% student fees. That mix drastically changes all the sudden when they don't have $40m in media rights money coming in, which shows as nearly a third of their revenue right now.

Adding those schools does not lead to a new media rights deal.

As for the Big1000 adding them, I disagree with Stanford but agree with Cal. Both are amazing academic schools but Cal just has fallen of a cliff the last decade with bad hires. Stanford thought has longstanding rivalries with several Big1000 schools dating back to the early 1900s and will be further strengthened when ND ultimately joins. Also, while Berkley duplicates the LA market, Stanford opens up the San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose market, which is an affluent, Top 10 media market.

The last thing I will say is that every conference needs doormats.
 
Berkeley duplicates the LA Market?

Not by location, but a study referenced in an article about the expansion talked about their alumni base being mainly in LA (vs Stanford more staying in Silicon Valley) which is what the media rights ties into. The whole thing was where the biggest alumni bases were centralized and they could get their networks onto the basic cable tier because it generated a buck or two per subscribed household.

It was a similar thing with The Big1000 taking Rutgers because it allegedly unlocked the NY market at least then they were trying to get the BTN on standard cable. I remember reading a ton of articles saying that wasn't the case at all, too.

Don't know about you, but I find that whole thing to be pretty moronic as someone that messes with stats because alumni bases vs alums that support athletics are drastically different beasts. Just like how State's biggest alumni base is in the Indianapolis metro and it does jack shit for them.
 
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Looks like Stanford and Cal are trying to get into the ACC. That I could see, since there are some very strong academic programs in that conference.

 
Looks like Stanford and Cal are trying to get into the ACC. That I could see, since there are some very strong academic programs in that conference.


Yeah, it is an academic fit.

All of these moves without a care in the world for logistical costs. I swear these people operate in a bubble and don't pay attention to the real world at all.
 
Yeah, it is an academic fit.

All of these moves without a care in the world for logistical costs. I swear these people operate in a bubble and don't pay attention to the real world at all.
I get their outlook on football…the money and typically weekend travel. However I just don’t like the look for fan bases and rivalries not to mention Clemson sending their volleyball team to Stanford. I mean I guess the money from football covers the travel expenses, but what a logistical nightmare.

Oh ya know just your typically weekend conference baseball series with Rutgers traveling to UCLA….
 
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